Washington (AFP)

The International Monetary Fund on Thursday issued a serious warning to the United States and China, which unearthed the commercial warhead at the risk of jeopardizing the global economic rebound expected for the second half of 2019.

In early April, the IMF lowered its 2019 global growth forecast to 3.3 percent, noting a synchronized slowdown affecting 70 percent of the world economy.

However, thanks to a prolonged truce between the first two world economic powers and the hope of signing an agreement, the Washington institution expected a rebound in the second half.

That was before Donald Trump revealed that Beijing was back on its commitments. In retaliation, the White House guest imposed on May 10 tariffs strengthened on 200 billion goods from the Asian giant.

"Although the impact on global growth is currently relatively modest, the new escalation could seriously damage the business climate and the confidence of the financial markets, disrupt production chains and jeopardize the recovery of global growth expected in 2019 "Gita Gopinath, the chief economist of the IMF, said Thursday.

Especially since China must increase tariffs on 60 billion US goods from June 1st.

In addition, Donald Trump plans to impose additional tariffs on some $ 300 billion in imports from the Asian giant.

If such a threat were to materialize, all of China's imports (more than 539 billion in 2018) would be hit by US surcharges.

The US president intends to drastically reduce the US trade deficit with China ($ 378.73 billion in 2018, including service surplus).

In a joint blog post with two other IMF experts, Eugenio Cerutti and Adil Mohommad, Gita Gopinath notes that "tariffs have reduced trade between the United States and China, but the bilateral trade deficit remains broadly unchanged."

The Fund's economists also believe that Sino-US trade tensions are beginning to negatively affect consumers as well as many producers in both countries. They cite more expensive washing machines in the United States while American importers have had to trim their margins.

The IMF warning echoes the many calls from US manufacturers, farmers and retailers urging Donald Trump to find a negotiated solution with Beijing.

While many farmers continue to support the Republican president in his attempts to put an end to Chinese commercial practices deemed "unfair", they now take stock of a conflict unleashed more than a year ago.

- Clenching -

One example: soybean exports to China collapsed last year, at $ 3.1 billion, up from $ 12.3 billion in 2017.

Sign that the impact is significant, Donald Trump announced Thursday emergency aid of $ 16 billion dedicated to farmers and breeders victims of Chinese reprisals in particular. This aid is in addition to the 12 billion released in July 2018.

However, the main trade union of the sector, the American farm office federation, whose members support in majority the American president, considered that in the long term, "the real solution" for the sector in difficulty was to negotiate with China, Japan and the European Union.

Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin had recognized on his side Wednesday that some consumer products could have increased.

Shoe manufacturers and their distributors, including Adidas, Nike, Puma and Steve Madden, have urged Donald Trump to remove "immediately" shoes from the list of manufactured products likely to be hit in the coming months by tariffs additional customs.

"The proposed 25% additional tariffs on footwear would be catastrophic for our consumers, our businesses and the US economy as a whole," they argued in a letter to the president.

Following the trade talks held in Washington on May 9 and 10, both sides agreed to continue the dialogue.

Donald Trump even announced a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the end of June at the G20 summit in Japan.

But since the tension is at its height, the US administration has also taken action against the Chinese technology sector.

Earlier this week, China's ambassador to the United States accused Washington of repeatedly "changing its mind overnight" and, in so doing, failed deals that could end their conflict. .

? 2019 AFP