China News Service, Boao, March 27 (Chen Sugong Hongyu) As the high inflation situation in the world's major economies has eased and countries have further emerged from the haze of the epidemic, the world economic outlook has improved. However, the world today still faces uncertain factors such as sluggish growth, geopolitical tensions, and sluggish foreign trade. Facing difficulties, where will the world economy go? The Boao Forum for Asia 2024 Annual Conference focuses on the world economy and provides a pulse for the future of the world economy.
At the "World Economic Outlook" sub-forum held on the 27th, Gita Gopinath, First Vice President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that although the current global economy is facing the dilemma of high inflation and low growth, the current global The economy is resilient, global inflation is falling, and inflation is falling more rapidly in Asia, and the world economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2024.
On March 27, the Boao Forum for Asia 2024 Annual Conference held the "World Economic Outlook" sub-forum. Photo by China News Service reporter Chen Su
While the world's economic prospects are improving, the world still faces many challenges. For example, the anti-globalization trend brought about by geopolitical fragmentation is still affecting the stable development of the world.
Lin Yifu, honorary dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, said that the current world economy has not continued to decline, but the world economy has slowed down a lot compared to the past and is at a low-level equilibrium point. According to the IMF's forecast, the growth rate of the world economy in 2024 will be 3.1%, and the growth rate before 2008 was about 4.5%. "The current world economy has not recovered to the level before the 2008 financial crisis, mainly because the economies of developed countries have not recovered. In addition, the current global trade continues to be sluggish, far below the level before 2008, and slow trade growth has also led to economic slow growth."
On March 27, Lin Yifu, Honorary Dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, attended the Boao Forum for Asia. (Photo courtesy of Boao Forum for Asia)
According to Fu Mengzi, former vice president of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on the world economy has not been fully digested so far. The world economy has been in a slowdown trend, and the epidemic and geopolitics have intensified. the degree of decline. “The external environment of openness, inclusiveness, and cooperation is moving away from us. In particular, geopolitical conflicts and strategic competition between major powers have torn apart the original unified market, torn apart the original global unified production layout, and the layout of the value chain, and have a negative impact on the world. Economic growth has a negative impact.”
Faced with the impact of the current geopolitical fragmentation on the world economy, Gita Gopinath called on all countries to cooperate in areas of common interest and to reach consensus and expand cooperation to address challenges such as artificial intelligence, debt, food security and climate change. , cope with it together.
Geeta Gopinath said that to deal with the common challenges of the global economy, there should be a correct combination of monetary and fiscal policies, and it is very important to establish a medium-term and credible monetary policy. To promote medium-term growth of the world economy, a series of measures such as reducing trade barriers need to be adopted. New technologies such as artificial intelligence can also be used to improve production efficiency and enhance medium-term growth prospects. However, attention must also be paid to reducing artificial intelligence risks, which requires strong international cooperation.
According to the IMF's outlook, Asia's growth forecast for 2024 has been raised to 4.5% from 4.2% in October 2023. The growth rate is significantly higher than other regions. Asia is expected to once again contribute two-thirds to global economic growth in 2024. Guests believed that the growth opportunities contained in Asia and China will also act as a booster for the world economy.
"Asia remains the bright spot of growth. Asia's economic growth rate is expected to reach 4.5% in 2024. It remains an important growth engine for the global economy, and more emerging markets will contribute greater economic weight." Gita Gopinath explain.
Fu Mengzi said that the general trend of global economic growth of "fast in the east and slow in the west" has not changed. Asia accounts for 37% of global output and 53% of global trade. The weight of the Asian economic sector has increased significantly, among which China is an important engine. "Asia has great potential in practicing openness, inclusiveness, and inclusive cooperation. Asia should be a leader in open cooperation in the world. When Asia forms stronger synergy, the world economy will also have better prospects."
Lin Yifu said that we cannot talk about the world economy without talking about the Chinese economy. In the past, international institutions tended to be pessimistic about China’s economic growth forecasts. However, in fact, as long as China makes good use of its policy space, catches up with traditional industries and makes good use of its space for technological innovation, and puts some necessary reforms in place, I believe that China will This year's economic growth will be above 5%. "If China's economy grows by 5%, China's contribution to world economic growth will increase by 1 percentage point." (End)