(Economic Observer) Last year's performance of the coal industry "hurrricane" will continue this year?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, February 14 (Reporter Chen Kangliang) As a typical cyclical industry, the coal industry will usher in a rare "boom cycle" in 2022.

Among the many industries for which China's A-shares have disclosed annual report forecasts, the coal industry has performed well, and many companies' performance is expected to increase.

Entering 2023, will the "procyclical" of coal stocks continue?

　　Statistics show that 21 listed coal companies in the A-share coal sector have announced performance forecasts for 2022, and more than 80% of coal companies have achieved performance forecasts.

Among them, 7 companies including Lu'an Environmental Energy are expected to achieve an increase of more than 100% in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

　　The performance of China Shenhua, the "big brother of coal", is even more impressive.

China Shenhua expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 68.7 billion yuan (RMB, the same below) to 70.7 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 18.4 billion yuan to 20.4 billion yuan year-on-year, a year-on-year increase of 36.6% to 40.6%, a record of nearly 16. Best performance of the year.

　　Another four coal companies have predicted a profit of over 10 billion yuan, and achieved substantial growth.

Shaanxi Coal Industry is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies last year of 34 billion to 36.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58% to 68%.

Yankuang Energy expects to achieve a net profit of about 30.8 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of about 89%.

Lu'an Environmental Energy is expected to achieve a net profit of about 14 billion yuan last year, a year-on-year increase of about 108.71%.

Shanxi Coking Coal is expected to achieve a net profit of about 9.825 billion yuan to 11.829 billion yuan last year, a year-on-year increase of 93% to 132%.

　　Most of the above-mentioned enterprises said that the high coal price operation was the main factor for last year's performance growth.

In 2022, affected by the international situation, the global coal supply and demand pattern will be tense, and the prosperity of the coal industry will continue. The annual market coal price will mostly be above 1,000 yuan per ton.

　　According to Zhou Zhe, an analyst at Essence Securities, in 2022, in addition to the overall improvement of the industry situation, various coal companies will also work hard to improve coal quality, control costs, and expand markets to help companies improve their profitability.

Some coal enterprises have achieved a leap in production capacity through asset injection, which has led to an increase in performance.

　　Entering 2023, the pro-cyclical trend of the coal industry seems to have weakened, the coal market has gradually weakened, and coal prices have declined. However, with the continuous recovery of the Chinese economy and the resumption of production after the Spring Festival, institutions are generally optimistic about the subsequent development of the coal industry.

　　Zhang Jinming, an analyst at Guosheng Securities, pointed out that some market participants are a bit too pessimistic about coal price expectations this year, and believe that coal prices will move downward in 2023. The coal market as a whole will show a pattern of basically balanced supply and demand but tight periods, and the coal market still faces many structural contradictions, such as overseas uncertainties. These factors will form a strong support for coal prices. The center is expected to exceed market expectations.

　　An Peng, an analyst at GF Securities, believes that coal prices may remain high in 2023.

Considering the background of maintaining supply and increasing production for two consecutive years, the production intensity of coal mines in major producing areas is relatively high, and coal resources in the eastern and central regions are declining, the actual increase in production may be lower than expected.

On the demand side, the growth mainly comes from the increase in demand for thermal power and the rebound in industries such as steel, cement, and chemicals.

In fact, judging from the monthly data in the second half of 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of monthly coal consumption has recovered.

It is expected that the supply and demand of the coal industry will be basically balanced in 2023, and the overall coal price will be stable.

　　Wang Kun, an analyst at Industrial Securities, said that looking forward to 2023, the industry is expected to be positive, and it is optimistic that the demand for coal will increase simultaneously with the economic growth target.

Judging from the 2023 economic growth targets announced by many places in China, the Chinese economy is expected to be positive, which is expected to boost coal demand as a whole.

On the supply side, it is expected that after the rapid release of coal production in 2022, it will be difficult for supply to maintain rapid growth. In 2023, the growth gap between coal supply and demand will reappear, boosting coal prices.

After the coal sector has experienced a callback in the fourth quarter of 2022, the current valuation of the coal sector is at a low level, with a high margin of safety, and the allocation value is prominent.

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