Our reporter Du Yumeng

　　On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the price of live pigs has continued to run at a high level recently and has been at a historically high level.

In order to effectively ensure the supply and price stability of the live pig market, the state will release the fifth batch of central pork reserves this year.

　　Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that the pork reserve throughput is a control method to control pork price fluctuations. Its purpose is to increase the friction of price fluctuations and control price fluctuations.

　　According to data from China Pig Network, as of October 9, the average price of live pigs (species: outer three yuan) was 26.57 yuan/kg (13.26 yuan/catties), and the price of pigs rose by 13.84% month-on-month and 140.45% year-on-year; The price of live pigs was 26.15 yuan/kg (13.08 yuan/catties), up 14.09% month-on-month and 142.8% year-on-year.

　　The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that at present, the domestic production capacity of live pigs is generally reasonable and sufficient, and the stock of breeding sows, newborn piglets, and fattening pigs have all rebounded for several consecutive months, and the price of live pigs in the later period does not have the basis for a sustained and substantial increase.

In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will pay close attention to the supply, demand and price situation of the live pig market with relevant departments, continue to release the central pork reserves, further increase the investment if necessary, and guide local governments to simultaneously release the local government pork reserves.

　　The departmental coordination meeting held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs at the end of September also stated that the current situation of live pig production and supply continues to improve, the number of breeding sows is at a normal level, the number of live pigs has increased for 5 consecutive months, and the number of large pigs in large-scale pig farms The number of piglets and new-born piglets were higher than the same period last year, and the fat pigs to be listed in the later period were sufficient and the market supply was guaranteed.

The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to strengthen the study and judgment of the production situation of live pigs, and take effective and effective measures to ensure the stable supply of pork in the fourth quarter, especially during major holidays.

　　In addition, pork prices are an important factor affecting the domestic CPI.

Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, previously stated that from the perspective of the whole of August, pork prices rose by 1.4% month-on-month, a decrease of 25.5 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase of 0.01 percentage points.

Under the influence of the low base last year, pork prices rose by 22.4% year-on-year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.3 percentage points.

　　Regarding the upcoming September CPI data, Wang Qing believes that due to the low base in the same period last year and the recent rise in pork prices boosted by holiday factors, the year-on-year increase in pork prices in September will expand significantly. The year-on-year price increase has also expanded, which will offset the impact of the cut in refined oil prices in September, thereby pushing up the overall CPI increase.

It is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI in September may rise to around 3.0%.

　　Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, holds a different view.

In his view, pork prices are only one of the factors that affect the year-on-year CPI for the month.

From the perspective of the "rule of thirds", in the context of the continuous decline in international oil prices in September and the reduction of refined oil prices by the National Development and Reform Commission, the superimposed base for the same period in 2021 will rise slightly. It is a hedge against the year-on-year increase in pork CPI.

In summary, it is expected that the CPI in September will be difficult to rise significantly year-on-year, and the probability of breaking "3" is low.

(Securities Daily)