Author: Pan Yinru

　　South Korea, Asia's fourth-largest economy, is facing a demographic problem that may be even more severe than that of Japan, the world's most aging nation.

　　The latest data from Statistics Korea shows that as of November 1, 2021, the total population of South Korea was 51.738 million, a decrease of 91,000 or 0.2% from the previous year.

This is the first negative population growth in South Korea since the statistics began in 1949.

　　According to Korean media reports, South Korea's population (natural) growth rate peaked at 3% in 1960, and has continued to decline since then, dropping below 1% since 1995.

　　In this regard, Huang Fei, director of the University of Seoul Graduate School of Science, is not surprised.

She told Yicai.com, "South Korea's aging and low birthrate have been going on for several years, and the news media often have similar topics, so the number of births is less than the number of deaths, that is, negative population growth, sooner or later."

　　Statistics Korea estimates that according to current trends, the population of South Korea will shrink to 37.66 million by 2070, and the labor force will shrink from the current 37 million to 17 million.

　　Huang Fei emphasized that the most prominent hidden danger of negative population growth to a country is the aging of the population and the reduction of the labor force, which has a direct impact on the economy.

At present, the keynote of the population policy of the new Korean government has changed from coping with low fertility to adapting to the era of population reduction.

The world's lowest total fertility rate

　　Previously, some Korean media predicted that South Korea would not see a decline in the total population, including foreigners, until 2028.

However, the sudden outbreak of the new crown epidemic has led to restrictions on the entry of foreigners, which has brought the reality of the decline of the total population ahead of schedule.

　　Excluding the factor of the decrease in the foreign population, the main reason for the decline in South Korea's total population is the sharp drop in the number of births.

　　According to the "State of the World Population 2022" report jointly released by the Korea Population Health and Welfare Association and the United Nations Population Fund on July 20, South Korea's total fertility rate is 1.1, which is the same as the data of last year and the previous year, ranking 198th in the world for three consecutive years. Bottom.

　　According to the definition of the United Nations, the total fertility rate refers to the average number of children born per woman of childbearing age, and a total fertility rate of 2.1 is the basic condition for maintaining intergenerational replacement and population stability.

　　The above report shows that although the number of newborns in Japan is also declining year by year, Japan's total fertility rate in 2021 is 1.28, which is still higher than that of South Korea.

　　According to the latest data from Statistics Korea, the number of births in South Korea in May this year was 20,007, a decrease of 1,928 (-8.8%) year-on-year.

This figure hit a new low since relevant statistics were carried out in 1981, and also decreased for 74 consecutive months since April 2016.

　　In addition, the above data shows that the number of single-person households in South Korea is also growing rapidly.

Last year, the number was 7.17 million, an increase of 7.9% over the previous year, accounting for 33.4% of all households, exceeding one third for the first time; the number of two-person households reached 28.3%, an increase of 3.6% over the previous year.

The total number of single-person and two-person households accounted for 61.7%.

　　As early as 2006, David Coleman, a professor of demography at Oxford University in the United Kingdom, warned about South Korea's population problems. Due to the continued decline in South Korea's fertility rate, South Korea may become the first country on the planet to "naturally disappear".

　　In order to alleviate the crisis of the decline in the labor force caused by the decline in the birth rate, the South Korean government has tried to promote education reforms such as lowering the entry age of primary school students, such as lowering the primary school entry age from 6 to 5 years old.

The South Korean government hopes that this move will allow young students to graduate earlier and increase the labor force; at the same time, early graduation and employment may also advance the age of marriage and childbearing for young people, which will help increase the birth rate and alleviate the problem of population aging.

However, the above plan was strongly opposed by the Korean people at the stage of soliciting public opinions.

After several days of stalemate, South Korean Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Education Park Soon-ae resigned after only 34 days in office, drawing an end to this unfinished reform.

Running into the "super old society"

　　At the other end of the demographic, South Korea is no longer "young".

The above data shows that in 2021, the proportion of the Korean youth population in the total population will be 11.8%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from a year ago; the proportion of the elderly population will increase from 16.0% to 16.8%.

Compared with 2005 (19.0% of the youth and 9.2% of the elderly), the proportion of the youth has been reduced by nearly half, and the proportion of the elderly has nearly doubled.

　　In addition, the average age of South Korea's population rose from 42.9 in 2020 to 43.5 last year, and the aging index (the ratio of elderly people per 100 adolescents) rose from 132.5 to 143 during this period.

The number of pensioners per 100 people of working age (15-64 years old) rose from 22.2 in 2020 to 23.6 last year.

　　According to the relevant standards of the United Nations, the proportion of the elderly over 65 years old in the social population accounts for more than 7% as "aging"; more than 14% of the population over 65 years old means entering an "aging society", and more than 20% is a "super-aging society". .

　　The Korea Labor Research Institute predicted in the "Final Report for the Introduction of Retirement Pension System" that South Korea has been aging since 1999, and will become an "aging society" in 2022, 23 years later.

The above research points out that it takes about 115 years for France to transform from an aging society to an aging society, 85 years for Sweden, 75 years for the United States, and 45 years for both the United Kingdom and Germany, even though the current global aging rate is the largest (28.8%). %) Japan also took 26 years to enter the "aging society".

　　In reality, South Korea is aging faster than expected.

According to data released by the South Korean government, it took less than 23 years for South Korea to enter an "aging society".

There are also Korean media that South Korea may "run" into a "super-aging society" within 4 years.

　　Keiichiro Oizumi, a professor at Japan's Asia University, told China Business News that South Korea's birth rate has been lower than Japan's for many years, and the rate of aging will rise rapidly in the future, and it is estimated that it will surpass Japan in 2050.

High employment and poverty rates for the elderly

　　Although the rate of aging in South Korea is accelerating, a fact that cannot be ignored is that the employment rate of the elderly in South Korea is the highest in the world.

Data released by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) late last year showed that the employment rate of South Korea's population over the age of 65 was 34.1% last year, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from 2019 and a record high.

The 34.1% is more than double the average of OECD member countries (14.7%), and with this data South Korea ranks first among 38 member countries for the first time, followed by Iceland (31%) and Japan in third (25.1%).

　　Huang Fei said that there are indeed many elderly people who are still working in South Korea. There are white-haired old men who are driving taxis, and elderly security guards who are busy in the community. grandma is selling vegetables and rice cakes.

　　"During the previous Moon Jae-in government, a large number of 'silver jobs' were promoted, and some retirees with strong bones were allowed to do some labor that is not particularly heavy, such as express sorting, garbage sorting, and community services, in order to obtain a certain source of life. income, and reduce the burden of pension." Huang Fei said.

　　Although the number of employed people over the age of 60 far exceeded that of young people during the Moon Jae-in administration, Huang Fei believes that this kind of support for silver-haired employment is only a "symptom, not a cure".

"On the one hand, the positions provided by the government are all 'temporary workers', with a monthly income of only 300,000 won (about 1,600 yuan), and there is no need to work 8 hours a day, just to let these elderly people who can take care of themselves have something to do , and there are also programs to increase their income in their later years, which is much stronger than direct payment of subsidies." She said, "But companies may not buy it, although some large companies have also experienced some cases of re-employment (re-employment is still a problem in Korean universities). more common), but enterprises are profit-making organizations after all, and if retirees cannot create more added value, then there is no spare capacity to 'support idlers'."

　　Some Korean media believe that the high employment rate of the elderly in South Korea is mainly due to "lack of money", that is, the elderly lack income such as pensions and have to work to earn money when they are old, and do not add burden to their children.

According to a survey released by Statistics Korea last year, more than half (57.7%) of South Korean seniors over the age of 60 are still earning living expenses on their own, up 8 percentage points from 49.7% in 2015.

According to OECD data, the poverty rate of South Koreans over the age of 65 is 43.4%, the highest among OECD countries and nearly three times the average of member countries.

　　In this regard, Huang Fei does not agree.

She said that "re-employment" after retiring at the age of 65 is also very common in South Korea. "There are many Koreans who believe that 'you will get sick when you are idle', so they are always looking for things to do, not necessarily for money."

　　At present, South Korea, which is facing the crisis of "demographic cliff", has begun social discussions on extending or abolishing the retirement age system.

However, she believes that South Korea is indeed facing the dual pressures of an aging population and a declining birthrate, and as life expectancy increases, delayed retirement is doomed.

"How to provide more capable and thoughtful elderly people with more space to display their abilities is what the government and enterprises should think about," she said.