Low birth rates: The population will soon shrink in almost all countries

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Pregnant women (symbolic image): In the past few decades, the global birth rate has more than halved

Photo: Jamie Grill / Getty Images / Tetra images RF

Women would have to have an average of 2.1 children so that the size of populations remains stable even without immigration. As things currently stand, almost all countries and regions in the world (97 percent) will miss this rate in the year 2100. This is the result of a study in the journal “The Lancet”. The experts predict that by 2050, three quarters of the countries will already be below the critical value.

The birth rate has a significant influence on the functioning of a society, and demographics determine the outcome of elections. In addition, social security systems are designed to ensure that enough young people come.

In more than half of all countries included in the analysis - in 110 out of 204 - the birth rate was already below 2.1 in 2021, the study says. The situation is particularly worrying in South Korea and Serbia, where fewer than 1.1 children are born per woman. And in Germany? According to an estimate by the Federal Institute for Population Research, the birth rate in this country could have been 1.36 in 2023, the lowest value in years.

In recent decades, the global rate has more than halved. In 1950, a woman had an average of five children, in 2021 it was 2.2.

For the coming decades, the scientists in the Lancet predict a further decline in the global birth rate: in 2050 it will be around 1.8 and in 2100 it will be 1.6. By 2100, only six of 204 countries and regions (Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad and Tajikistan) are expected to have a fertility rate of more than 2.1 births per woman, it says.

“In many ways, the falling birth rates are a success story,” said Stein Emil Vollset from the University of Washington, according to a statement. "They not only reflect that contraceptives are better and more accessible, but also that women have the freedom to delay having children or have fewer children."

Against the backdrop of declining population numbers, there is concern that some countries could restrict reproductive rights in response, said co-author Natalia Bhattacharjee. These rights include, for example, the possibility of having an abortion.

However, such interventions in women's rights would also have economic disadvantages: "It has been proven that countries with strong women's rights are more likely to have better health standards and faster economic growth," says Bhattacharjee. It is therefore essential to protect the rights of women. Women should be supported to have as many children as they want and still pursue their careers.

“There is no patent recipe”

Policies aimed at increasing birth rates - such as financial support or child care - could prevent some countries from falling to extremely low rates, it says. However, a significantly higher level could not be derived from the experience of countries that have implemented such measures. For countries with low birth rates, it is important, in addition to an open immigration policy, to take measures that support those who want to have children.

"There is no magic formula," said Bhattacharjee. "Social policy measures to improve birth rates such as extended parental leave, free child care, financial incentives and additional employment rights can boost birth rates somewhat." Most countries would still remain below the replacement level. »The African countries south of the Sahara have a vital resource that aging societies are losing – a young population.«

The global population is heading towards a “demographically divided world,” the researchers write. Comparatively high birth rates can be expected, particularly in low-income countries. Meanwhile, the proportion of live births in low-income regions could almost double from 18 percent in 2021 to 35 percent in 2100.

In 2021, 29 percent of the world's babies will be born in sub-Saharan Africa, and by 2100 that proportion could likely rise to over half of all babies, the authors predict. This underlines the urgency with which access to modern contraceptives and education for women must be pursued.

“We are facing a shocking social change in the 21st century,” said Vollset. "The world will have to simultaneously cope with a 'baby boom' in some countries and a 'baby bust' in others."

The forecasts underscore the challenges to economic growth in many middle- and high-income countries, the authors write. The number of workers there is shrinking, while the burden on the health and social security systems is increasing due to an aging population.

In sub-Saharan countries, however, the aim would be to provide for the youngest, fastest-growing population in the world. “And this in one of the most politically and economically unstable, heat-threatened places in the world with the most strain on the health system,” says Vollset.

The study draws on estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study, a global research project led by scientists at the University of Washington. These are forecasts that can still change. In particular, the period from 1950 to 2021 was considered. The quality and quantity of the data were not always constant, the authors write restrictively. This applies, for example, to the period of the corona pandemic from 2020.

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