China News Service, August 23 (Zhongxin Finance and Economics Ge Cheng) According to the notice from the National Development and Reform Commission, starting from 24:00 on August 23, the price of gasoline will be reduced by 205 yuan per ton, and the price of diesel will be reduced by 200 yuan.
According to the agency's calculations, it is equivalent to 0.16 yuan per liter of No. 92 gasoline, 0.17 yuan per liter of No. 95 gasoline, and 0.17 yuan per liter of No. 0 diesel.
For an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, a full tank of fuel can cost about 8 yuan less than before.
A few weeks ago, international oil prices fell sharply, giving back all gains since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Is the "era of high oil prices" really over?
A tank of fuel can save more than 50 yuan after "five consecutive drops"
Since mid-to-late June, the trend of international oil prices has weakened, and the overall market has dropped significantly compared with the first half of the year.
Lu Qiaohui, a refined oil analyst at Jinlianchuang, said that due to the impact of international oil prices, the domestic retail price of refined oil also fell from a high level.
The previous price adjustments of domestic refined oil products in 2022.
(Data source: National Development and Reform Commission)
After the domestic refined oil price showed a "five-straight decline" trend, gasoline was cut by 1,315 yuan per ton, diesel by 1,270 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 1.03 yuan per liter of gasoline, and about 1.08 yuan per liter of diesel.
An ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L can spend about 51.5 yuan less on a full tank of fuel than before the "five-straight drop" in oil prices.
For a large truck with a fuel tank capacity of 160 liters, a full tank of fuel can save about 172.8 yuan.
While the drop is significant, oil prices remain elevated compared to early 2022.
Why do international oil prices continue to fall?
According to industry insiders, the recent continuous decline in international oil prices has been caused by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and weak energy consumption, as well as the recovery of oil supply and the easing of geopolitical conflicts.
"The real oil supply capacity has not decreased." Zhou Dadi, executive vice chairman of the China Energy Research Association, said in an interview with Zhongxin Finance, "With the gradual resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue, some production capacity suppressed by geopolitical conflicts in the past, There may be some recovery momentum."
According to estimates by Jinlianchuang crude oil analyst Han Zhengji, if the sanctions on Iran's crude oil exports are lifted, it will bring a 2%-3% increase to the output of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
"The supply of crude oil will be significantly improved, and the ongoing crisis of insufficient energy supply will be greatly alleviated."
"It is different from the concerns about the supply of crude oil in the previous conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The recent decline in international oil prices is mainly due to the Fed raising interest rates, which has intensified the market's concerns about crude oil demand." Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economics Research Center of Xiamen University, accepted. New Finance said in an interview.
In Zhou Dadi's view, weak international energy consumption is also an important driver of the recent decline in oil prices.
"At present, the economic growth situation in Europe and the United States is not optimistic, and energy consumption cannot be pulled up. In this case, the state of oversupply is more obvious."
In addition, Europe and the United States have printed a lot of money in the past two years to deal with the epidemic, and now they are facing very high inflationary pressure.
Zhou Dadi said, "Inflation is also one of the main reasons for the previous rise in oil prices, but the cause and effect should be distinguished. Previous analysis said that the statement that 'the rise in oil prices leads to inflation' is not accurate."
Data map: Gas station.
Photo by Ge Cheng of China-Singapore Finance
Expert: Oil prices will remain high in the future
The next price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on September 6, 2022.
"At present, the good and bad are still in a game situation. The market is still worried about the outlook of the economy and demand, but at the same time, the tight supply is expected to continue." According to Xu Wenwen, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will start A slight upward trend.
Jinlianchuang refined oil analyst Zou Xuelian analyzed, "Whether the Iranian nuclear negotiation is reached or not, it will suppress crude oil in a short period of time. In addition, the weak economy and demand will also restrain oil prices. Therefore, on the whole, the trend of international oil prices is still weak. A new round of rate of change may continue to run negatively."
In the opinion of the interviewed experts, oil prices will remain high in the future.
"The real market demand will remain high." Zhou Dadi said that maintaining high international oil prices is beneficial to producers. Under the global economic downturn, oil producers are facing certain pressures, which can further promote their active production.
Oil and natural gas prices are correlated.
"Because the price of natural gas is very high, the oil price will not fall very much," said Lin Boqiang.
In the near future, oil prices may still be dominated by the following behaviors, but the prices will not be particularly low.
Zhou Dadi emphasized, "Therefore, we cannot easily think that oil prices will be in a downturn, and we must do a good job in energy conservation and energy substitution." (End)