2021 was a period of recovery for the global economy from the shock of the pandemic.

The start of mass vaccination of people against coronavirus, the easing of quarantine restrictions and large-scale incentive programs in a number of countries have helped revive global consumer demand and resume operations of enterprises.

According to the results of the outgoing year, the volume of the world gross domestic product may increase immediately by 5.6%.

This conclusion was reached in December by experts from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Earlier, a similar forecast was presented by the specialists of the World Bank.

According to the world's lenders, the post-recession global GDP growth rate will be the highest in the last 80 years.

Thus, the economy should recover from the effects of COVID-19 faster than it did after World War II and the 2008 financial crisis.

At the same time, if at the beginning of 2021 the recovery processes in the world were proceeding at a steady pace, then by the end of the year the dynamics began to slow down.

Economists attribute this to the emergence of new strains of coronavirus and the inability to provide rapid vaccination of the population everywhere.

Thus, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the next wave of the pandemic and the spread of the omicron strain have increased uncertainty about the future prospects of the global economy.

At the same time, the situation is further aggravated by the growth of inflation in the world.

“With the relaxation of restrictions, the dynamics of demand has increased, but the response increase in supply is not happening so quickly.

While price pressures are expected to subside in most countries in 2022, the outlook for inflation is highly uncertain, ”the IMF study said.

Pandemic cost

Disruptions in global supply chains have become one of the reasons for the rise in world prices.

Alexander Daniltsev, director of the Institute for Trade Policy at the Higher School of Economics, expressed this point of view in a conversation with RT.

According to him, as a result of the consequences of the pandemic, the cost of transporting goods began to grow rapidly, and there was a shortage of a number of goods in the world.

These are, for example, semiconductors and electronic components.

“The quarantine restrictions introduced in 2020 turned into problems in the operation of transport.

Some production was disrupted, due to which there were disruptions in logistics networks already in 2021.

The accident in the Suez Canal also had a short-term effect, when a large container ship completely blocked traffic on one of the most important trade routes in the world, ”Daniltsev said.

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According to Alexander Daniltsev, stimulating measures by states to support national economies had an additional impact on global inflation.

In 2020, to combat the effects of the pandemic, many central banks have lowered interest rates and also started printing money and injecting funds into their countries' financial systems.

The monetary pumping of the economies made it possible to accelerate the recovery process, but later turned into an acceleration in prices.

“A lot of money has been pumped into the economy within the framework of anti-crisis programs.

And this happened all over the world.

Of course, such actions did not immediately affect inflation, as overall economic activity in 2020 remained weak.

However, as soon as the general recovery began and consumer demand began to grow, prices began to react accordingly, ”explained Daniltsev.

As the IMF experts believe, if inflationary pressures become more and more widespread, many countries will have to cut off stimulus programs ahead of time and tighten monetary policy.

In these conditions, fund experts urge central banks to act carefully so as not to provoke panic in the financial markets.

Fuel splash

Experts say that one of the most memorable events of 2021 is the explosive rise in world gas prices.

The situation was most noticeable in Europe, where a sharp rise in the cost of fuel led to a ninefold increase in the cost of electricity and the bankruptcy of a number of enterprises.

If back in January the exchange quotations of gas on the European market fluctuated near the mark of $ 230 per 1,000 cubic meters, then already in mid-December the value briefly approached $ 2,200 per 1,000 cubic meters - for the first time since the observation period.

Note that at the moment the indicator has corrected to $ 1200.

Experts say that the main reason for the rise in prices is the acute shortage of fuel in the EU.

The rapid economic recovery, unfavorable weather conditions and problems with renewable energy sources have led to a significant increase in gas demand.

Against this background, fuel reserves began to decline steadily.

The situation worsened after the supply of liquefied natural gas was cut.

It has become more profitable for large producing states to export fuel to Asia, and not to Europe.

“The supply was not ready for the surge in demand, resulting in an imbalance.

There was a shortage in the market, and the occupancy rate of gas storage facilities in Europe fell to a minimum in ten years.

Locally, the situation was aggravated by news of a longer delay in Nord Stream 2 and the interruption of transit through the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, "said Sergey Kaufman, an analyst with Finam FG, in a conversation with RT.

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Oil prices also showed strong growth in 2021.

In January, the price of a barrel of the benchmark Brent crude fluctuated in the range of $ 50-55, and in October it renewed its three-year high and exceeded $ 86.

In late November - early December, after the omicron strain was identified, quotations dropped below $ 70 per barrel.

However, to date, oil has already won back some of the losses and is trading near $ 78 per barrel.

“We see the market recovering.

Last year, it partially recovered, this year (demand increased. -

RT

) by about 6 million barrels (per day. -

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).

I hope that in the next 2022 we will already reach the balance of supply and demand at the pre-crisis level, "Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on the air of the Russia 24 TV channel in December.

In his opinion, the actions of the countries participating in the OPEC + deal made it possible to stabilize the situation in the industry and reduce price volatility.

Recall that in the summer of 2021, due to the growth in fuel consumption in the world, the alliance members began to gradually increase the production of hydrocarbons to maintain a balance between supply and demand.

As noted by Novak, OPEC + closely monitors the situation on the market and is ready to make prompt decisions if necessary.

At the same time, according to the Deputy Prime Minister, in 2022 prices will continue to remain close to $ 75 per barrel.

Tax alliance

In 2021, 136 countries of the world, including Russia, signed an agreement on the implementation of international tax reform.

The initiative provides for the introduction from 2023 of a minimum tax of 15% on the income of transnational corporations.

The rate will apply to companies with revenues over € 750 million.

“The initiator of the agreement was the United States, for which it was important to establish the order of global taxation of large high-tech companies.

Now the States are determined to raise taxes at home, but at the same time they do not want businesses to transfer production to other countries, "Alexander Abramov, head of the laboratory for the analysis of institutions and financial markets at the Institute for Applied Economic Research, RANEPA, explained in an interview with RT.

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According to the specialist, the deal can be profitable for the majority of participants.

According to OECD estimates, the partnership will allow more than $ 125 billion in profits from about 100 of the largest international corporations to be redistributed between countries.

“If an American company or its branch operates in a certain country, the state will be able to tax it at least 15%.

These are additional incomes for the budget.

At the same time, for the United States, this is a guarantee that big business will not slip away into other jurisdictions, ”Abramov explained.

According to the expert, states that have traditionally attracted foreign business with low tax rates may suffer from the initiative.

Thus, the agreement will be an important step towards the end of the era of offshore companies, the economist does not rule out.

The return of bitcoin

Experts attribute the large-scale growth of the cryptocurrency market to significant events in the global economy over the past 12 months.

From January to April, the cost of bitcoin almost doubled and for the first time during the entire observation period reached $ 64.86 thousand per coin.

In the summer, the digital asset dropped sharply to $ 29-30 thousand, but in the fall its price began to rise again and in September set a new all-time maximum - $ 68.79 thousand. At the moment, bitcoin is trading near $ 51 thousand.

As the leading analyst of EXANTE, Janis Kivkulis, told RT, in the first half of the year, the digital coin market grew due to the so-called lost profit effect.

In fear of not buying cryptocurrency at an attractive price, players massively invested money in an electronic asset.

“At the same time, large companies began to actively introduce cryptocurrencies as payment methods and bought them with free funds.

A notable moment was also the decision of El Salvador to recognize bitcoin as an official means of payment in the country, ”Kivkulis said.

According to him, in the middle of the year, China's actions put pressure on the market.

The PRC authorities have introduced a number of bans on operations with cryptocurrencies, and also began to fight mining.

Meanwhile, in the fall, the launch of the world's first bitcoin ETF was positive news for investors.

We are talking about a special fund, the securities of which are traded on the exchange at the bitcoin price.

The emergence of the tool has simplified the purchase of cryptocurrencies for ordinary investors.

“In general, we see that more and more serious players are coming to the market.

Against this background, impulses of growth and recession in the future may not be as sharp as in previous years, ”concluded Kivkulis.