Develop green trade and cultivate new momentum for foreign trade
Green Economy and Trade Center Research Team of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce
In recent years, climate change and extreme climate events have occurred frequently, posing severe challenges to human survival and development. In the context of global cooperation to combat climate change, the relationship between trade development and environmental protection has become the focus of major economies and international organizations, and green trade has become a widely discussed topic. At the end of 2023, the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in the United Arab Emirates conducted the first global review of the Paris Agreement, promoting the world to take solid steps to jointly respond to climate change. Humanity still faces many challenges in coping with climate change and promoting green and low-carbon transformation. We should strengthen green development cooperation, break down various green barriers, and jointly promote the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.
Green trade has become the focus of international society
As the impact of global climate change intensifies, countries are actively exploring green and low-carbon development paths and participating in global climate governance. More than 130 countries have announced that they will achieve net-zero emission goals by the middle of the 21st century. In September 2020, China announced that it would strive to achieve carbon peak before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 to contribute to the global response and mitigation of climate change. Major powers have accelerated international cooperation on climate change. China and the EU have established and developed a climate change partnership and conducted a large amount of practical cooperation on key issues such as renewable energy and carbon capture and storage. In November 2023, China and the United States jointly issued the "Sunshine Statement on Strengthening Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis", proposing their commitment to the effective implementation of the Paris Agreement and its decisions, which was widely praised by the international community.
In the context of global cooperation to combat climate change, the relationship between trade development and environmental protection has become the focus of major economies and international organizations. The environmental impact of cross-border flows of goods and services in international trade is one of the important concerns of the multilateral trading system. As early as 1994, the Uruguay Round of Tariffs and Trade Agreement negotiations reached the Decision on Trade and Environment. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has established a Trade and Environment Committee to be responsible for trade and environmental issues. In 2014, 14 WTO members issued a statement to officially launch negotiations on the Environmental Products Agreement in the form of open plurilateral negotiations, aiming to reduce or reduce tariffs on environmental products and promote free trade in environmental products. As of December 2016, a total of 18 rounds of negotiations. The members participating in the negotiations account for about 90% of the market share of global environmental product trade. Due to differences among the members on the types of environmental products covered by the agreement, the extent and scope of tariff reductions on environmental products, the negotiations have stalled and have not yet been restarted.
The term "green trade" appears many times in domestic and foreign policy documents, and the international community has reached a certain consensus on promoting green trade. In the policy documents of relevant United Nations agencies, green trade mainly refers to the coordination of environment and trade. In documents such as "Agenda 21", "Rio Declaration on Environment and Development", "Report of the World Summit on Sustainable Development" and "Global Sustainable Development Report" , all emphasize that trade and environment complement each other, coordinate and promote each other. In 2021, the United Nations Environment Program released "Green International Trade: The Way Forward", which mentioned green trade many times and proposed building an environment and trade 2.0 agenda, including strengthening trade-related environmental policies and promoting environmental protection in trade policies and agreements. Upgrading regulations, promoting cooperation on environment and trade, etc. The EU's "Adapting to Climate Change: Towards a European Action Framework" and other policy documents focus on green trade, in which green trade mainly has two meanings, namely green trade measures and green product trade.
At present, official documents and academic circles have not yet reached a unified definition of the concept and connotation of green trade. In a broad sense, green trade refers to economic activities that meet green standards in production, distribution, circulation, consumption and other links, including domestic trade and international trade; in a narrow sense, green trade refers to the prevention of damage caused by trade activities in product trade. Economic activities that threaten the natural environment and cause damage to human health, thereby achieving sustainable development. This new form of trade not only focuses on the actual costs incurred in the market, but also incorporates environmental costs into the scope of cost accounting.
Global green trade shows steady growth
The pace of global green and low-carbon transformation is accelerating. More and more countries regard the development of green trade as an important means to promote economic transformation and improve international competitiveness and voice in the low-carbon field. Green trade, represented by environmental products, is playing an important role in the development of international trade. plays an important role.
Global green trade has generally maintained steady growth. From 2013 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of global green trade import and export volume was 0.85%, reaching US$6.5 trillion in the first three quarters of 2023. The fluctuations in the scale of green trade are basically in sync with global trade in goods, with the proportion stable between 20% and 23%. In 2022, global trade in goods will grow significantly, and the proportion of green trade will decrease slightly, accounting for approximately 18.17% of total trade imports and exports; China's total green trade imports and exports will be US$1,079.28 billion, accounting for 12.2% of the world, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from 2013 .
Developed countries and regions are at the forefront of green trade development. Judging from the total import and export volume of global green trade in 2022, the EU, the United States and China rank among the top three, accounting for about 40% in total, with Japan, the United Kingdom, South Korea and other countries at the forefront. In the first three quarters of 2023, the top ten countries (regions) in terms of green trade scale are the European Union, the United States, China, Japan, the United Kingdom, Mexico, South Korea, Canada, Singapore and India, each accounting for 14.1% of the total global green trade import and export volume. , 13.5%, 11.7%, 4.2%, 3.6%, 3.4%, 3.4%, 2.7%, 2.7% and 2.3%, accounting for a total of 61.6%.
Environmentally friendly technology products dominate green trade. In terms of product categories, the total import and export volume of environmental protection technology, carbon capture and storage, and renewable energy products ranks among the top. In the first three quarters of 2023, the total import and export volume of these three major categories of products was US$3.9 trillion, US$2.6 trillion and US$1.9 trillion respectively. In terms of growth rate, other environmentally friendly, carbon capture and storage, and environmentally friendly technology products are at the forefront. From 2013 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the total import and export volume of the above three categories of products was 4.7%, 4.4% and 3.8% respectively.
Responding to climate change and promoting green and low-carbon transformation have become global consensus, and green trade has become an important part of global trade. Against this background, the scale of global green trade is showing steady growth, the list of environmental products is expected to be further expanded, and market participants will become more diverse.
China’s green trade development has achieved remarkable results
China has made a series of arrangements for the development of green trade. For example, in November 2019, the "Guiding Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High-Quality Development of Trade" proposed to promote the coordinated development of trade and environment. In February 2021, the "Guiding Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Establishment and Improvement of a Sound Green, Low-Carbon Circular Development Economic System" proposed "establishing a green trade system", emphasizing actively optimizing the trade structure and vigorously developing high-quality, high value-added green product trade. The "14th Five-Year Plan for High-Quality Development of Foreign Trade" takes "building a green trade system" as one of the ten key tasks, and proposes to establish green and low-carbon trade standards and certification systems, create a green trade development platform, and create a green trade development Four measures including a good policy environment and solid implementation of green and low-carbon trade cooperation. For many years, China has been at the forefront of global green trade. In 2020 and 2021, China has become the world's largest green trading economy for two consecutive years, accounting for about 13% of the world's total import and export volume. In 2022, China's green trade scale will rank third in the world, and it will also be the world's largest green trade exporter and third largest importer.
The scale of import and export has grown steadily. From 2013 to 2022, China's green trade import and export total increased from US$814.43 billion to US$1,079.28 billion, an increase of approximately 32.5% in 10 years, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%. Among them, the export value increased from US$495.79 billion to US$691.64 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 3.8%, accounting for 19.2% of total exports of goods; the import value increased from US$318.64 billion to US$387.64 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 2.2%. It accounted for 14.3% of the total imports of goods. At the same time, the global proportion of green trade scale has steadily increased, from 9.9% in 2013 to 12.2% in 2022. Among them, the proportion of exports has increased from 12.1% to 16%, and the proportion of imports has increased from 7.8% to 8.6%.
Green trade mainly focuses on environmentally friendly technology products. In terms of product categories, in the first three quarters of 2023, the total import and export volume of environmental protection technology, carbon capture and storage, and renewable energy products ranked at the forefront, with US$555.11 billion, US$305.76 billion, and US$163.9 billion respectively. In terms of the proportion of global green trade, the total import and export of environmentally friendly technology products in the first three quarters of 2023 accounted for 14.3% of similar products globally; followed by waste treatment and water pollution control equipment, accounting for 13.9% globally; carbon capture and Storage products accounted for 11.9%, renewable energy products accounted for 8.6%, other environmentally friendly products accounted for 7.9%, and air pollution control equipment accounted for 7.2%. In addition, the "three new things" represented by electric passenger vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells have become new drivers of foreign trade growth. In 2023, exports exceeded the trillion yuan mark for the first time, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%.
The import market is diversified. In the first three quarters of 2023, the United States, Germany and Japan were the top three sources of China's green trade imports, with import values of US$33.12 billion, US$30.94 billion and US$30.61 billion respectively, accounting for 35.3% of China's green trade imports in total. In recent years, this proportion has declined, and the proportion of imports from Malaysia, South Korea, Russia and other countries has increased, and the import market has shown a trend of diversification.
The regional development pattern presents “one belt and one axis”. The "One Belt" refers to the coastal development belt where the three core areas of the Bohai Sea, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta gather and develop. The "One Axis" refers to the development axis along the Yangtze River formed around the Yangtze River Basin. China's eastern coastal areas have a developed export-oriented economy, a solid foundation for environmental industries, a concentration of resources such as advanced technology and high-end talents, and active green trade. In the first three quarters of 2023, green trade volume accounted for 78.3% of the country's total. The Sichuan and Chongqing regions have outstanding resource endowment advantages. In recent years, with the improvement of the environmental industry system, the level of green trade development has continued to improve. In the first three quarters of 2023, green trade volume accounted for 7.3% of the country's total. The economic foundation of the central and western regions (excluding Sichuan and Chongqing) is relatively weak. The proportion of green trade is low but the growth rate is fast. In the first three quarters of 2023, the green trade volume increased by 7.5% year-on-year, which has great development potential.
Low-carbon rules bring profound changes
Addressing climate change has become an international consensus, and international low-carbon rules have gradually become an important issue in global politics, economy, and social development, and are the focus of attention and competition from many parties. At present, although the progress of low-carbon rules in multilateral mechanisms such as the United Nations has slowed down, positive progress has been made in international institutions such as Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the breadth and depth of free trade agreements continue to expand. .
Important international institutions promote low-carbon rules. In 2012, APEC members agreed on a list of environmental products containing 54 six-digit customs tariff numbers, involving air pollution control, solid waste and hazardous waste disposal, renewable energy, wastewater and drinking water treatment, natural risk management, environmental monitoring and Analytical equipment, environmentally friendly products and other fields, this is the world's first substantial list of environmental products to promote the liberalization of trade in environmental products. In 2021, the International Monetary Fund recommends that within the framework of the G20, based on development stages and historical emission responsibilities, the carbon price level of the world's major carbon emitters should be increased and a lower limit should be set on carbon prices. The OECD has long been concerned about the carbon pricing mechanism and pointed out that carbon pricing is the most important policy tool to address climate change. It proposed to establish an inclusive framework for explicit and implicit carbon pricing and provide a quantitative analysis framework for the carbon leakage problem through unified standards under the inclusive framework. , and then promote policy coordination to achieve global net-zero emissions goals.
Countries have established carbon pricing related systems one after another. In order to establish effective economic means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the international community has begun to implement carbon pricing, which has profoundly changed the global green trade cost structure. Emissions trading system (ETS) and carbon tax are two important carbon pricing tools. As of April 2023, there are 73 carbon pricing mechanisms in operation around the world, covering about 23% of greenhouse gases. Some countries and regions have announced that they will launch new ETS or carbon tax plans. On the one hand, many countries and regions have established intra-regional carbon trading systems. According to World Bank data, the total transaction volume of the global carbon market will reach US$95 billion in 2022, a year-on-year increase of approximately 13%. Revenue from ETS accounts for 69% of total revenue, and carbon tax accounts for 31%. The more mature carbon markets mainly include the EU Carbon Emissions Trading System, the U.S. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, and the New Zealand Carbon Emissions Trading System. In July 2021, China's carbon emissions trading market officially launched online trading, and its industry coverage has expanded in an orderly manner. It is the largest carbon market covering greenhouse gas emissions in the world. On the other hand, Denmark, Finland and other Nordic countries began to levy carbon tax earlier, treating it as a separate tax and have established a relatively complete carbon tax system; Japan, Italy and other countries have implicitly included carbon tax in environmental tax, energy tax and so on. Among existing taxes such as consumption tax, carbon tax policies in the United States, Canada and other countries are only implemented in specific areas of the country or states (provinces) formulate their own collection plans, and there is still great uncertainty in policy implementation.
Low-carbon rules in free trade agreements continue to expand. As cooperation in the field of global environmental governance becomes increasingly closer, environmental rules have become an important tool to balance trade liberalization and environmental protection. Although the multilateral trade process has slowed down, regional trade cooperation is booming. More and more countries and regions have included environmental protection clauses as trade issues in free trade agreements. The scope of environmental protection has been expanded, environmental rules have been deeply expanded, and environment, trade and investment have been integrated. The trend is becoming increasingly obvious. Environmental protection has become an area with promising cooperation, and environmental protection goals of various countries have been unanimously improved. High-standard economic and trade agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership have set up special environmental chapters.
Improve the level of green trade development
Under the new situation, the development of green trade is an important path for international cooperation to respond to climate change, and it is also an important driving force for promoting sustainable economic and social development. China will continue to practice the concept of ecological civilization, strengthen green development cooperation, improve the degree of economic greenness, improve the level of green trade development, and contribute more to achieving the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality as scheduled.
Optimize the global trade structure of green products and services. Give full play to the industrial advantages and green development advantages of various regions, accelerate the transformation of green power, promote the application of green technology, encourage enterprises to give priority to the use of low-carbon, energy-saving, environmentally friendly, green materials and technologies for green design and manufacturing, and enhance the export competitiveness of green products. Support the trade of technology, equipment, key components and raw materials in the green industrial chain and supply chain, increase the trade of green and low-carbon products such as environmental protection and new energy, and encourage the trade of green consumer goods. Actively carry out knowledge and technology-intensive service trade such as energy-saving technology, low-carbon technology, green design, environmental services, energy conservation and environmental protection.
Strengthen cooperation in the international green industry chain. Use green trade to drive upstream and downstream industries and related industries to achieve low-carbon development, strengthen international cooperation in green manufacturing, promote the construction of a green and low-carbon industrial chain supply chain cooperation system, and promote the efficient and coordinated development of high-end factors and the real economy. Coordinate industrial development and green transformation, improve the supply capacity of green products and services, and build a green industrial system. Adhere to the direction of intensification, greenness and intelligence, and improve the utilization efficiency and greening level of new infrastructure. Encourage enterprises to implement green procurement, promote green packaging, and collaboratively promote green supply chain management. Develop green and low-carbon transportation and improve the green level of modern logistics.
Strengthen technical exchanges and cooperation. Reduce the market access costs of green products and technologies, accelerate their global promotion, and improve the top-level design to deal with climate change. Increase green technology innovation in the fields of energy conservation, environmental protection, clean production, and clean energy, carry out international scientific research cooperation and technical exchanges, and achieve breakthroughs in green and low-carbon technology innovation. Encourage enterprises, universities, scientific research institutes and relevant international organizations to carry out green technology innovation exchanges and cooperation. Deepen international cooperation in technical equipment and services in the fields of energy conservation, environmental protection, clean energy and other fields, and promote the exchange and sharing of green technologies and green services. We will encourage developed countries to honor their commitments, provide financial, technological and capacity-building support to developing countries, and improve the level of green development.
Create a more open development environment
To continue to promote the high-quality development of green trade, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of institutional systems and coordinate the advancement of international cooperation in green and low-carbon fields, green trade standards and certification, and create a more open development environment for green trade.
Deepen multilateral, bilateral and regional cooperation. Jointly safeguard the international system with the United Nations at its core, promote all parties to fully implement the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Paris Agreement, and actively participate in international shipping and aviation emission reduction negotiations. Strengthen cooperation with international organizations and promote institutional communication, technical exchanges, project cooperation, personnel training, etc. in the field of green and low-carbon trade development. Deepen exchanges and cooperation with countries co-building the “Belt and Road” in the fields of green infrastructure, green energy equipment, green technology, green services, green finance and other fields.
Promote international mutual recognition of green product certification and labels. Promote the carbon label certification of imported and exported goods from various countries, and promote the coordination and mutual recognition of carbon footprint methodologies for batteries and other products. Strengthen international cooperation on green power certification, promote the establishment of an international green power certificate system, and strengthen the research and formulation of international standards for green power certificate issuance, measurement, and trading. Actively promote the formulation of international technical quality standards and specifications, continue to improve the international cooperation and exchange system for inspection, testing, certification and accreditation, and strengthen international cooperation on green standards.
Deepen international cooperation in green finance. Promote practical cooperation in the field of climate investment and financing, encourage the development of green credit, green bonds, green insurance and other financial products, and provide financing support for key areas such as energy conservation and environmental protection, clean production, clean energy, ecological environment, green infrastructure, and green services. Improve the international cooperation mechanism for green finance and strengthen docking in green finance assessment standards, environmental and governance information reporting and disclosure, etc. Strengthen international discussions on green finance and jointly promote innovation in green investment and financing products and services. Actively participate in the research and formulation of international green finance standards and strengthen international coordination of the green finance standard system.
Improve the institutional system for promoting green trade. Explore and establish a green trade evaluation index system. Promote the resumption of negotiations on the WTO Environmental Products Agreement and the expansion of APEC environmental products, and support companies to launch more high-quality green and low-carbon products. Improve the green trade promotion system, support green technology research and development and the construction of green trade public platforms, and promote the transformation and implementation of green and low-carbon technological innovations with advanced technology, obvious results, high feasibility and strong promotion. Support the holding of green trade theme exhibitions and create a high-level, international green trade promotion platform.
Establish and improve the market-oriented mechanism for carbon trading. Give full play to the role of the national carbon emissions trading market, further improve supporting systems, and gradually expand the scope of the trading industry. Strengthen the construction of carbon emission statistical accounting capabilities, deepen research on accounting methods, and promote the establishment of a unified and standardized carbon emission statistical accounting system. Guide foreign trade processing enterprises to carry out clean energy substitution and reduce carbon emissions per unit product. Coordinate and promote the construction of markets for carbon emission rights, energy use rights, and electricity trading, strengthen the connection and coordination between market mechanisms, and incorporate carbon emission rights and energy use rights trading into public resource trading platforms. Promote the trading of green power certificates, promote green power consumption, and promote the international mutual recognition of green certificates. Accelerate the linkage of international carbon markets and promote mutual recognition of China's carbon market projects and international carbon market projects. (Written by Economic Daily: Xu Yingming, Zhang Jian, Li Xiaoyi and Xiao Xinyan)