China-Singapore Jingwei, November 13 (Xiong Jiali) The October CPI data of 31 provinces released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 12th showed that the October CPI increase in 15 provinces was lower than that of the whole country.

In addition, Yunnan's CPI remained unchanged from the same period last year.

CPI increase in 15 provinces is lower than that of the whole country

The gains in the two places are the same as the whole country

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2021, national consumer prices rose by 1.5% year-on-year.

Among them, food prices fell by 2.4%, and non-food prices rose by 2.4%.

　　According to Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, in October’s year-on-year increase, the carry-over impact of last year’s price changes was about 0.2 percentage points, compared to 0 last month; the impact of the new price increase was about 1.3 percentage points, up The month expanded by 0.6 percentage points.

The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 1.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.

　　In terms of provinces, 15 provinces such as Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Jiangxi, Heilongjiang, Fujian, Guangxi, Xinjiang, Henan, Hunan, Sichuan, Tibet, Guizhou, Chongqing, and Yunnan increased in October CPI year-on-year lower than the national average.

Among them, Yunnan's October CPI rose 0, which was the same as the same period last year.

　　The October CPI increase in Hainan and Gansu provinces was the same as that of the whole country, both at 1.5%.

In the 14 provinces of Tianjin, Ningxia, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Zhejiang, Beijing, Hebei, Qinghai, Shanxi, Guangdong, Shandong, Liaoning, and Anhui, the October CPI increase was slightly higher than the national average.

　　GF Futures pointed out that, overall, the October CPI data slightly exceeded expectations. The seasonal demand for live hog consumption and the policy underpinning were the main driving factors. The price of live hogs may improve in November; however, the probability of continued rise in vegetable prices is unlikely. , The short-term supply gap is unlikely to affect the long-term increase in vegetable prices.

Agency: Pork prices are expected to rebound briefly

CPI may maintain a moderate upward trend

　　Pork profile map.

Photo by Sino-Singapore Jingwei

　　How do prices go in the future?

Guosheng Securities believes that the short-term rebound in meat and vegetable prices will drive CPI upward.

CPI will maintain a moderate upward tone, and it is difficult to see full-scale inflation.

　　Bohai Securities said that looking forward to November, on the one hand, tail-lifting factors will continue to pick up, and on the other hand, the chain growth rate is expected to continue to strengthen the driving force of the new rise. Among them, pork in food is expected to take over vegetables as the dominant factor, not the food China Automobile The increase in diesel prices is still the main source of momentum for the month-on-month pull. Driven by the dual push of tail-end and new increases, the CPI year-on-year growth rate in November is expected to further rebound to about 2.8%.

　　West China Securities analyzed that from the contribution of each sub-item to CPI, it can be seen that the CPI food, tobacco and alcohol sub-items are mainly driven by pork and fresh vegetable prices, and the CPI non-food tobacco and alcohol sub-items are mainly driven by oil prices and service industry prices.

Among them, pork prices are expected to rebound temporarily from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the Spring Festival, and will bottom out in the second quarter of 2022, and then gradually start a new round of rising cycle; the price fluctuations of fresh vegetables have obvious seasonal characteristics; crude oil Prices may continue to remain high; in terms of service industry prices, the impact of the epidemic on the service industry is expected to gradually ease, superimposing the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics next year, which will provide certain support for the service industry prices.

　　West China Securities predicts that the overall CPI trend in 2022 will show up first and then down. The high point may appear in August. The annual center is expected to be 2.3%, and the pressure is relatively low.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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