INTERVIEW
Less 4.1% for category A, -0.7% for the whole ... The "good figures" of unemployment for the month of July published by the Ministry of Labor have, at first glance, something to bring back a smile . But at first glance only, according to Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Natixis. Guest of the night newspaper of Europe 1 this Wednesday, he replied in the affirmative when asked if this drop is a trompe l'oeil. "Since May, we have seen a rebalancing, people are gradually finding odd jobs, while those unemployed and not working see their numbers decrease."
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A level of activity still lower at the start of the crisis
If the specialist does not balk at talking about an economic recovery, he quickly qualifies by recalling that the unemployment figures remain at "very high levels compared to the end of 2019". And insists on a still very complex labor market situation, while specifying that "the level of activity is still lower than it was before the start of the health crisis". A finding that is not encouraging when the government estimates that between 800,000 and a million jobs will be destroyed in France by the health crisis.
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The labor market, an essential link in the economic recovery
It is precisely to avoid this that Prime Minister Jean Castex announced this Wednesday at the Medef summer university that the partial unemployment scheme put in place at the height of the crisis would continue as it is until November, 1st. Initially planned for six months, this aid was to increase from October 1 from 84% to 72% of the net salary for the employee, and from 85% to 60% of the cost for companies. A decision welcomed by Philippe Waechter, who furthermore believes that "the stake of all economic policy will be to manage and improve the prospects of the labor market".
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For the latter, "the recovery plan must focus on this segment of the economy, intimately linked to consumption, to reassure all French people and prevent the situation from degenerating". Especially since this would encourage them to reinject into the economy the 100 billion euros they saved in addition during confinement. A sum which will prove to be very important to "supply the French economy" during the coming months.