"Unheard of", even at the height of the financial crisis: the social security deficit will reach the abysmal level of 41 billion euros this year, according to "a favorable hypothesis" unveiled on Wednesday by Gérald Darmanin.
"The figures make you dizzy" and yet, we may not yet have hit rock bottom. Heard by the Senate Social Affairs Committee, the Minister of Public Accounts immediately underlined "the exceptional and changing nature" of his budget forecasts.
The consequences of the health crisis
The 2019 vintage, better than expected with a loss of 1.9 billion euros, "seems far away to us today", as the 2020 vintage left to smash all records. Erased, the 28 billion deficit of 2010, from which the Social Security Fund was slow to recover. The Bercy host is counting on a hole of 41 billion to this day, "something never seen before", obviously because of the coronavirus epidemic.
The health crisis has indeed caused "approximately 8 billion euros in additional expenditure", included in the second amending budget being examined in Parliament. This sum includes 4 billion for Public Health France (purchase of masks, gowns, etc.), 3 billion for hospitals - notably the premium promised to carers - and more than one billion for work stoppages linked to Covid-19 (guard children, vulnerable people).
"I do not know if there will not be more to add," admitted Gérald Darmanin, referring to a possible "catching up" of spending on city care in addition to the aid announced to compensate for the loss of activity of liberal caregivers - valued at "just over a billion euros" at this point.
Cancellation of contributions
But this is relatively little in view of the “collapse of revenue” from Social Security which will show a shortfall of 31 billion euros, including 20 billion linked to activity income (contributions, CSG) and 11 billion to taxation (VAT, payroll tax).
And again, these resources remain dependent on the extent of the economic recession. For the time being, the government expects GDP to drop by 8%, but "the more negative the growth, the more the figures will deteriorate", warned Gérald Darmanin.
This "favorable assumption" is also based on the "principle that all of the deferred employer contributions will be paid by December, which is unlikely to be the case," he added.
Partial unemployment also weighs on the books
Not only will businesses benefit from “spreading” their payments, but “the government is working on cancellations” that will affect “certain sectors”. "We will have to go through a legislative provision and we will have to justify (the choice of) these sectors", like catering, struck by "a regulatory ban" since the start of containment in mid-March.
This could also apply to hotels, tourism, events, culture, but also to "consequent sectors" such as launders depending on hotels or winegrowers depending on bars and restaurants.
In the meantime, everyone can already resort to short-time working, which weighs heavily on the state accounts, but also those of Unédic, whose debt should be "probably around 47 billion euros in June", or 10 billion more than at the start of the year, said the minister.
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Coronavirus: Partial unemployment can be "individualized" within the same team
- Deficit
- Unemployment
- Social Security
- Containment
- Economy
- Coronavirus
- Gérald Darmanin