Barthélémy Philippe with AFP // Photo credit: MAEVA DESTOMBES / HANS LUCAS / HANS LUCAS VIA AFP 7:19 p.m., March 21, 2024

France's public deficit would soar to 5.6% of GDP in 2023. It therefore seems certain that the deficit will "significantly" exceed the 4.9% of GDP targeted by the government. The general rapporteur of the Senate Finance Committee, Jean-François Husson, denounces “disastrous management”. 

France's public deficit would soar to 5.6% of GDP in 2023, according to recent forecasts from Bercy updated Thursday by the general rapporteur of the Senate Finance Committee Jean-François Husson, who denounced "a disastrous management.

The deficit will “significantly” exceed the 4.9% of GDP targeted by the government

A deficit of 5.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) for 2023, before a further slippage to 5.7% in 2024 then 5.9% in 2025... This is what Bercy envisaged in recent weeks in a "forecast technical" whose content was reported in the evening by Senator LR after his visit to the ministry, in the form of a search. These figures should be taken with "caution", he agreed, because they date from February, prior to the announcement of a saving of 10 billion euros for 2024 made by the Minister of Finance, Bruno Le Maire .

But this slippage reveals "disastrous budgetary management by the government which today proves incapable of following the budgetary trajectory that it itself had adopted", added the opposition parliamentarian at a press conference. Five days before the publication by INSEE of the official figure for the public deficit for the year 2023, which is particularly scrutinized, it therefore seems certain that the deficit will "significantly" exceed the 4.9% of GDP targeted by the government, as had been warned the Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire at the beginning of March.

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In its financial programming, France has so far envisaged a deficit of 4.9% of GDP in 2023, 4.4% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025... Far from the percentages which would therefore circulate internally , according to the opposition. In the afternoon, the general rapporteur of the Budget exercised his powers of control over the government's action, initiating an audit "on documents and on the spot" - a prerogative of the standing committees and commissions of inquiry of Parliament.

“The results of this control are edifying since the budgetary situation is in fact worse than we imagined,” he explained, calling for “a collective start to put France back on the right track”. The Senate's initiative comes the day after a meeting at the Élysée, where President Emmanuel Macron summoned several ministers and executives from the majority. “We have to face a cyclical economic shock linked in particular to geopolitics. We take responsibility and we tell the truth to the French,” he declared to his hosts, according to one of them. The president's entourage added on Thursday evening, asserting that they had "always been concerned about controlling expenses."

“A carpet of bombs awaits us on the measures that we will have to take”

The government has already made ten billion cuts in state spending in 2024 by decree. But with this departure, the executive should be forced to present a draft amending finance law (PLFR) to Parliament, even if Emmanuel Macron seems to rule out this risky option, while the presidential camp only has a relative majority in the National Assembly and could expose itself to a vote of censure.

Asked Thursday in Brussels about the possibility of a PLFR, the head of state did not respond. “France must be clear: we must be responsible in terms of public finances and keep our anchors,” he nevertheless reaffirmed. While 20 billion euros in additional cuts have already been announced by the executive for 2025, Bruno Le Maire and the Minister for Public Accounts Thomas Cazenave must bring together parliamentarians from the majority and the opposition next week in Bercy to try to identify avenues for savings.

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“I have the impression that this year, a carpet of bombs awaits us regarding the measures that we will have to take,” admitted Jean-François Husson after his visit to Bercy. While denouncing the "withholding of information" by the government, which according to him already had a note in December assessing the 2023 deficit at 5.2% of GDP, in full examination of the finance bill in Parliament.

Chairman of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly, Éric Coquerel refuses any reduction in public spending. The expected slippage in the deficit "does not originate from an increase in spending, but from a drop in revenue," said the deputy for La France insoumise (LFI) on the social network X. "If we lower public spending further, This will further contract economic activity and therefore tax revenues,” he warned.