Yannick Bestaven has more and more reasons to believe in it -
Sebastien SALOM-GOMIS / AFP
Yannick Bestaven has been leading the Vendée Globe for almost 20 days
His lead over Charlie Dalin is relative, but he has a 10 hour bonus at the finish line
Enough to make the skipper on Maître Coq a future winner?
2021 begins as 2020 had ended for the Vendée Globe fleet, led by Yannick Bestaven for the 19th day in a row.
The skipper on Maître Coq IV is still being followed by the man who had flown over the Indian Ocean before experiencing problems on his port foil, Charlie Dalin.
Behind them, another duo composed of Damien Seguin and Thomas Rouillard is a good distance away, around 400 miles, and could even be joined by the large peloton of pursuers on the Cape Horn side.
In other words, the break is made for the two leaders at the dawn of the rise of the Atlantic.
And Bestaven, in addition to being a hundred miles ahead of his runner-up, has a wild card up his sleeve - a ten hour and 15 minute bonus on the finish line relating to the rescue of Kevin Escoffier.
It is therefore necessary to ask the question: has the leader won?
Bonuses are worth gold
Let us immediately evacuate what is a matter of chance.
Yes, Maître Coq can cross an ofni at any time on his route or be the victim of damage, especially as the fleet will switch back to areas where maritime traffic is more dense.
At this stage of the race, all the boats are tired, it is a reality.
But what good is speculating on the Mario Kart dimension of this race when other more rational parameters are within our grasp.
Starting with this bonus story, which gives Bestaven a big head start on its runner-up with a view to finishing in the sprint.
The meteorologist Jean-Yves Bernot does not forget that his protégé François Gabart won the Vendée Globe with only three hours ahead of Armel Le Cléac'h in 2013. “Ten hours is a lot.
There were Vendées where it was played less than that.
It will count on arrival, that's for sure.
From there to imagine Charlie Dalin taking reckless risks on the 6,000 miles of races to come, there is a ditch that Bernot does not dare to cross.
“We must not try and do anything.
There is still some road there.
What they are going to try to do is to race the best possible way up the South Atlantic.
If you get depressed backwards, it can hurt a lot.
You have to navigate very precisely in weather conditions that are certainly less harsh than in the south but more complicated in terms of strategy.
"
We can already see it.
The south is barely finished when Dalin and Bestaven took two different paths as a high pressure zone threatens to block their way.
The first runs along the tip of South America when the second runs east.
The meteorologist, always: "It seems that at the beginning, they will go east to keep a little wind and then there will be a somewhat crappy transition zone, where we do not really know what to say: models see a hollow depression, others a very small depression ... it's a mess.
"
The weather situation on January 3 at 9 a.m. - Vendée Globe
Rio de la Plata, North Atlantic and other key points
Little geography break.
After crossing Cape Horn, the two leading men are preparing to pass the Falkand Islands (the Falklands) and along the Argentine coast, where they will meet their first formidable opponent at the Rio de la Plata, between Argentina and Uruguay. , an area where depressions are as numerous as they are unpredictable.
Second risky point, a few miles north, a transition zone off Cabo Frio, the corner of Brazil east of Rio de Janeiro.
Bernot continues.
“After that, you meet the South Atlantic high.
It's more stable up to the Equator, there are south-easterly trade winds, everything is fine.
Once past Ecuador, the doldrums are there, but he doesn't look very bad.
Then we find the northeast trade wind which is also stable and that will take them suspiciously to the latitude of the Canaries.
Then, we go back to our areas where it is winter, so you can find serious gales, we have already had these these days.
The worst beatings they take are often north of the North Atlantic.
"
Let us not forget that it is there that Jérémie Beyou saw his chances of victory soar after only a few days of racing.
All of these places are key points where the advance can be made and undone.
If Bestaven doesn't make a big mistake and Dalin doesn't pull a stroke of genius out of his hat, the first will have won.
Behind, the pack of boats still believe in it
Every error of judgment at this stage of the race will be double-edged for the leading duo.
Because in addition to wasting time on the pursuers, they will give the latter indications on the paths to take or not to take.
No coincidence if, says our meteorologist, “it is often in these areas that things are clustered.
Michel Desjoyeaux was made half up by Ellen MacArthur in the ascent [in 2000-2001] ”.
More recently, Alex Thomson had made a spectacular comeback by coming back 30 miles from Armel Le Cléac'h in 2016-17 after being 450 behind at Cape Horn.
“In the South, the problem was the opposite, everything comes from behind.
There, it is the first who will stumble in the tricky areas and mark the painful areas for the others.
They act as a scout.
This is really the area where the first hillock and the others come back behind and the game reopens behind.
"
Without forgetting the traditional post-Cape Horn psychological slack which means that we are already at home when there are 6,000 miles to go.
“A Route du Rhum is 3,000 miles.
And in general, things happen on a Route du Rhum, ”laughs Jean-Yves Bernot.
So over twice the distance, we don't talk about it.
Yannick Bestaven can still wait before raising his arms to the sky.
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