Since the International Skating Union announced that the 2020 World Figure Skating Championship could not be held on schedule due to the threat of coronavirus, there have probably not been a single comment in the media that didn’t say that this is the strongest the decision hit three Russian athletes - Alexander Trusova, Alena Kostornaya and Anna Shcherbakova, who already three times this season (in the Grand Prix finals, in the championships of Russia and Europe) occupied the entire podium and were probably full of intentions to repeat this to the world m championship in Montreal.
Strange as it may seem, the most “weak” link in this troika was during the course of the Trusov season. This gave reason to believe that Russia might not be able to retain all three prizes at the main tournament of the year in Montreal. However, in early March, Sasha uploaded an online video shot during one of the training sessions, in which she more than confidently performed five quadruple jumps during a free program: flip, salchow, lutz, sheepskin coat in a cascade with triple salchow and another solo sheepskin coat. In other words, for the main start of the season, the skater gained absolutely stunning conditions and was ready to storm the next records and heights.
When it became known that the World Cup would not take place in March and ISU was considering an option to postpone the competition for the fall, I called the famous handball coach Yevgeny Trefilov to hear his opinion: how difficult it is to maintain the already gained sports uniform and is it possible to do this without losing quality if potential start is delayed for several months.
“Of course, there is a certain difficulty in this, and it concerns both team sports and personal ones, since the laws of physiology work the same for everyone,” the trainer replied. And he explained: - The fact is that the higher standards the athlete scored for the main start, the longer the decline. To begin to load a person in a period when he has not fully recovered, you should be very careful - there is a risk of overloading him. And it’s very dangerous to force training - in this case, the athlete is able to fall into such a deep functional hole, from which it is not always possible to pull him out. ”
I think for the majority of fans who are currently awaiting an ISU decision, there is no difference when exactly a temporarily adjourned tournament could be held - in June, August or October. The logic here is simple: even if the leaders are not in shape at the time of the speech, does someone still win? And wouldn’t it be interesting to see how some conditional Kevin Aymoz circumvents Yuzuru Hanyu and Nathan Chen, while the conditional Eun Su Lim puts Russians on their shoulder blades?
But there is a nuance. First of all, any kind of sport is moved forward by leaders. They - this is the very golden fund, which requires a very special relationship. At the same time, leaders are the most vulnerable link. They will be the first to be hit if the 2020 World Cup is moved to the beginning of next season.
The term “butterfly effect”, which has become widely known thanks to the film of the same name, is most appropriate here. The essence of the phenomenon, I recall, is that even a slight effect on a particular system can result in large and completely unpredictable consequences. Especially in a situation of chaos.
On the one hand, six months (namely, how much time the skaters will have if the ISU decides to postpone the main start of 2020 to the fall) is enough time to restructure training and re-bring athletes to the maximum peak. On the other hand, then a recession will happen anyway, and no one knows now how strong and lasting it can be for all the strongest. And all this will happen in the pre-Olympic season.
Now let's try to answer the question: are we sure we want to see this?
It’s a paradox, but having refused the World Cup this year, figure skating can win much more. Firstly, the season in this case will turn out to be completely full, with a powerful Grand Prix series, in which all the strongest will probably want to participate. Secondly, there is hope that the most charismatic skater of the planet, two-time Olympic champion Yuzur Han, will still have to change his programs for new ones - it’s stupid to challenge the genius of the legendary Chopin’s Ballads No. 1 and Seymeya, but going out with these productions in the fifth once for a person claiming an Oscar in the nomination of the most valuable skater in the world, all the same, it’s too much. But to see Chania in new images and with new programs is an event in itself, regardless of whether the Japanese are winning their rivals or not.
But the most interesting situation is in women's single skating. One can sincerely sympathize with Trusova, Shcherbakova and Kostornaya that, being unconditional leaders, they lost their main start. This is really a strong blow for any athlete who claims to be gold medals, but one cannot but understand that the 2021 season can be much more difficult for all three girls than for the same Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, or Evgenia Medvedeva - that is, those who are in the strength of age has already stabilized physical condition and retained a fairly high complexity of programs.
It’s obvious enough that the stars of junior age are always especially good in their first season and very rarely become stronger as they grow older. And this, by the way, is a great incentive for the same Alina Zagitova to return to the big ice. It may sound cruel to Trusova, Shcherbakova and Kostornaya, but from the point of view of the competition, equal competition is much more interesting than the colossal separation of individual leaders based on physiology.
Just in order to see all this, ISU really needs to make a decision as quickly as possible - without breaking the season and without provoking consequences with an unpredictable outcome. And certainly here should not be given priority to attempts to minimize economic losses. After all, any successful business is primarily people, not money.