ANKARA — Turkey's opposition is heading into a second round of presidential elections scheduled for May 28 after incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan topped the first-round result with 49.52 percent, beating his traditional rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu with 44.88 percent of the vote.

Erdogan's "Republic" alliance won a parliamentary majority of 49.47%, which caused frustration among opposition supporters, as the result was contrary to expectations and opinion polls, many of which suggested that the opposition would win and decide the presidential elections from the first round.

Erdogan's "Republic" alliance winning a majority of parliamentary seats reduces Kılıçdaroğlu's chances in the presidential run-off (French)

Repeated defeats

This is not the first time Kılıçdaroğlu, who took over the presidency of the Atatürk Republican People's Party (CHP) in 2010, has failed; in 2009 he lost the municipal elections to the AKP candidate Kadir Topaz, and his counter-campaign to the 2010 constitutional referendum failed.

He could not win the general elections in 2011 and the local elections in 2014, and in the same year Kılıçdaroğlu and the MHP did not succeed in the presidential elections, losing their candidate Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu to Erdogan.

He also did not win the 2015 general election and the snap general election of the same year, in addition to losing his campaign opposing the constitutional amendment in 2017 and the 2018 general elections. In 2019, his party was able to wrest the mayorship of Istanbul and Ankara in the municipal elections from the Justice and Development Party.


The second round and the specter of loss

Kerem Yavashta, an academic at Akhi Devren University, says that public opinion polls' predictions of ending 21 years of the AKP's leadership in power, followed by Erdogan's lead by about 4 and a half points, "led to a state of hopelessness."

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Yavashta, one of the founding members of the opposition Democracy and Progress Party, favors Erdogan in the presidential race, given that his coalition "the Republic" won the majority in the parliamentary elections, which makes Kılıçdaroğlu in a more difficult position.

Yafşta says that "if the opposition does not win, the CHP and its president will bear the bill for losing," and then Kılıçdaroğlu will be blamed for his insistence on representing the opposition, running for office and challenging the opinions of politicians and intellectuals who estimated that his chances of winning were difficult compared to other names.

Some academics believe Kılıçdaroğlu gambled his political future in this election (Reuters)

Difficult task

Mehmet Ali Mart, associate professor at Recep Tayyip Erdogan University, said Kılıçdaroğlu's first goal in the second round was to close the 4.5-point gap and win, stressing that this is more difficult compared to Erdogan's position.

According to Mert in his speech to Al Jazeera Net, the goal of Kılıçdaroğlu II is to protect his seat as head of the Republican People's Party, "and for this he needs to fill the difference, and if the opposite happens and widens this difference in the second round, perhaps the possibility of maintaining Kılıçdaroğlu on his presidency of his party will be more difficult than it is today."

The spokesman agreed with Yafşta that if he lost, Kılıçdaroğlu's most important battle after the election would be to protect his position as head of the largest opposition party, especially since he will not be a member of parliament, which will weaken his position in the upcoming competitions within the CHP.

Holding the reins of the party presidency

Kılıçdaroğlu was able to protect his position in the party despite previous losses due to the structural nature within the party, Mert said, adding that Kılıçdaroğlu created a system within the party that can be called "order from within chaos" by maintaining a 20% to 25% voter turnout in each election, and if the party's internal structures feel that this will be disrupted by his departure, he will be able to retain his position.

The spokesman stressed that the opposition leader has already begun to protect his party position after the first round by claiming that there is a societal demand for a change of power, and if he loses the second round by a smaller margin, this rhetoric will be intensified to make talk of his resignation secondary and thus prevent such discussions.

A difficult task for Kılıçdaroğlu to maintain his position in the CHP (Getty Images)

His political future is at stake

While Kılıçdaroğlu has been able to protect his position as party leader despite previous failures and the possibility of imposing his rule and standing up against his opponents within the party strongly, "this time it is different," Yafşta says.

The academic explained that in these elections, Kılıçdaroğlu "took full responsibility on his shoulders, and gambled almost for his future and political career in a way that will make him subject to great pressure."

If Kılıçdaroğlu resigns as before, the age factor is not in his interest to reach the age of 74, and this will make it difficult for him to continue until the 2028 elections, and it can be believed that he will not be as strong as he previously enjoyed, and this will pave the way for the formation of opposition against him over time, in addition to the fact that the party's environment is suitable for forming a strong internal opposition.

Mert says the tradition of resignation "does not exist in Turkish politics in general or in the CHP in particular in the event of political failure or loss of elections."

Mert stressed that it is nothing more than disappointments and anger within the party and the establishment of a new congress followed by maintaining the old regime in its work, and spreading a new atmosphere of enthusiasm with the assumption that there is change and hope to win the next elections, describing this situation as a "vicious circle", "so every time the reactions remain futile."

The academic believes that changes in the CHP's leadership are often the result of a "painful" labor, noting that Kılıçdaroğlu himself ascended to the presidency of the party after a scandal forced its former chairman Deniz Baykal to resign.


The rise of Ekrem Imamoglu's star

Academic Yavaşta believes that if Kılıçdaroğlu resigns, Ekrem Imamoglu is the first name that will come to mind to head the party; he won the mayorship of Istanbul in 2019 and has the ability to communicate with the community, as well as leadership qualifications, which makes him one of the most important names in this regard.

But at the same time, Imamoglu was involved in the current electoral process as one of the names that Kılıçdaroğlu announced would be among his deputies when he won the post of president, and this may affect his chances of becoming party president, "but in any case there are no other names competing with him at this time."

Mert agrees, arguing that Imamoglu has the ability to bring the CHP closer to a more conservative and nationalist segment than Kılıçdaroğlu, yet the task of becoming the party leader will not be easy if he tries to undermine the current system within the party, whose structures may see it as a threat, and thus this may lead to internal fragmentation.

"The main argument of opponents within the CHP is that the party will rise to power if its president changes until this argument has become a slogan," Mert said, adding, "In fact, there is no obstacle to the CHP coming to power, but rather the obstacle in the party's structure and mentality.