Turkish President Erdogan (right) and the ruling party’s candidate for mayor of Istanbul, Murat Kurum (Reuters)

It is unclear how the Turkish opposition will contest the local council elections and face the weight of its traditional opponent, the Justice and Development Party (the ruling party) and its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party, across the country.

According to the head of the Supreme Elections Committee, Ahmed Yenir, 36 political parties have a quorum to participate in the elections scheduled to be held at the end of this month, of which 6 opposition parties are the most present, led by the Republican People’s Party, followed by the parties of Good, Future, Happiness, Victory, and Homeland.

The latter parties constitute the main body of a fragile political opposition, witnessing internal disputes and divisions among themselves, which local media described as unprecedentedly tense.

However, with the dispersion of the opposition "Umma" coalition after the presidential and legislative elections last May due to disagreements between its parties, the chances of the Justice and Development Party increased in the upcoming elections, but they did not reach the point of decisiveness.

Opinion polls in Turkey indicate that the chances of the current (opposition) mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavaş, are much better than his rival, Justice and Development candidate Turgut Altinok.

As for the competition for the Greater Istanbul Municipality between its current mayor, İmamoğlu, and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) candidate Murat Kurum, it is intense, and there is no significant lead for either of them over the other, or talk of one of them being more likely to win.

Despite the dispersion of the opposition parties, Imamoglu still has a chance to compete for the mayor of Istanbul (Reuters)

Weak speech

The political scene in Turkey has been developing dramatically since the May 2023 presidential elections in which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan defeated his rival, opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

It is difficult to estimate whether the opposition parties, which united to stop the rise in power of the Justice and Development Party in the 2019 elections but succeeded relatively well, can continue their political and social momentum and regain the confidence of Turkish voters, after their alliance disintegrated and the tension between them left the chambers. From closed to public, each party chose to fight its battle individually in all 81 states.

Video clips have recently spread across social media platforms, shedding new light on this reality and its repercussions.

A video revealed the presence of verbal altercations and disagreements that indicated the dissatisfaction of a section of the audience with the lists of candidates of their party, the Republican People's Party, which was headed by Ozgur Ozil after he removed its historical leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, from his position.

The video showed angry responses from members who described what was happening as "a relationship of interests and a struggle for power within the party."

While other videos reported the objection of some attendees at a meeting of the opposition Al-Jayyid Party, headed by Meral Afsnar, to its lists of candidates.

A member of the Turkish Parliament resigned from the New Welfare Party, led by Fatih Erbakan, in protest against his party’s position of opposition to the ruling party’s orientations in the upcoming elections.

The atmosphere is dissipating

It is important to point out here - as Burhanuddin Duran, General Coordinator of the Endowment of the SETA Center for Political, Economic and Social Research in Ankara, says - that the political atmosphere that prevailed before May 2023 has largely dissipated before the upcoming municipal elections, while emphasizing that “the power of the president Recep Tayyip Erdogan's invincibility" and the opposition's "fragmentation and cheap deals" were among the reasons for alienating its voters.

He believes that "none of the parties that came together to support the Republican People's Party candidate Kılıçdaroğlu in the May 2023 elections will participate in a campaign for this party's candidates for the mayor of Istanbul in the March 2024 elections."

On the contrary, all of them, including the Socialist Party, the Future Party, the Diva Party and the Victory Party, will put forward candidates to strengthen their voter base, meaning that the CHP's "vote for us or the AKP will win" rhetoric has been greatly weakened in the camp. Opposition.

Criticizing the Justice and Development Party harshly - as Duran believes - reveals an important weakness for the Republican People's Party as it searches for votes that enhance its chances in the elections.

He continues that the People's Party candidates must realize that they have lost the mood of 2019, and that Imamoglu's "me and the others" approach or his criticism of President Erdogan will not lead to obtaining many votes, as expected from opposition voters.

Erdogan mediates with a number of officials from the ruling Justice and Development Party (Anatolia Agency)

Complex map

Everyone acknowledges that the presidential elections that took place in 2023 are among the most important voting processes during the last half-century in Turkey, and it is also clear that they have revealed a complex map of political competition and conflict of interests and gains that the opposition is experiencing today, which will cast a shadow over the future political life.

Seeing the internal scene through this map gave all segments of Turkish society an opportunity to understand the significance of President Erdogan’s insistence on erasing the impact of the blow directed at him by the opposition coalition led by the Republican People’s Party in the previous local elections, when the latter seized the city of Istanbul after it had been ruled by the Justice and Development Party for nearly 20 years.

Istanbul is known as a friendly city that welcomes every visitor without discrimination. It is the spirit of the East infused with the brilliance of Europe, and it is the one whose heart beats whenever the politicians’ struggle to control it intensifies.

To the west of its historic center, the Kucukcekmece region is located. It is one of the municipalities whose presidency is being contested between the Justice and Development Party and the Republican People's Party.

Last February 10, an election campaign center for the Justice Party candidate was subjected to an armed attack that resulted in casualties, prompting Erdogan to say that “there are those who are trying to poison the electoral process because they do not accept that it is conducted in a sound and appropriate manner for our democracy.”

Kucukcekmece is considered one of the highly populated areas in Istanbul, with a population of about 750 thousand people, distributed over an area of ​​43 square kilometers. What distinguishes it is that it includes a group of the most important centers of industry, trade and real estate investment.

The opposition Republican People's Party succeeded in winning the 2019 elections, and its candidate received 48.8% of the votes, while the Justice and Development candidate received 44.2% of the votes.

This mini-competition reflected the reality of the major competition that the Great City Municipality witnessed five years ago, when the opposition Republican People's Party candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu, won its presidency, ahead of his rival, the Justice and Development Party candidate, Benali Yildirim, by a difference of 800,000 votes.

In light of its current endeavor to preserve its gains with available force, it is not easy for the opposition Republican people to give up the jewel they possess, so Istanbul will always be a revealing and decisive test for any party, and the main indicator of the quality of performance.

Loss restoration

President Erdogan and his traditional ally, the leader of the Nationalist Movement, Devlet Bahçeli, are seeking, through a close alliance and a clear strategy, to restore their loss of the city, along with 4 other major cities: the capital, Ankara, Izmir, Adana, and Antalya.

The stumbling horse they suffered in front of the local election ballots, followed by Erdogan’s landslide victory for a new presidential term, will increase their enthusiasm for winning again. After a meeting between them that lasted for about an hour at Erdogan’s house, the common constants between the two parties were emphasized.

Bahceli increased his frankness in response to a question directed at him in a press conference, saying, “The Justice and Development Party and the National Movement Party are one party, intertwined, and they will continue their firm stance in the local elections.”

In the city's markets crowded with passers-by, your attention is drawn to posters peeking out from behind the facades of prestigious shops, and other murals hanging from the tops of historic buildings, of candidates searching for a place in this race, representing parties that entered the electoral fray with weak work programmes.

The candidate of the Justice and Development Party, Murat Kurum, and the candidate of the opposition Republican People's Party, the current mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, are competing strongly to win it. For many residents of the neighborhoods, the city has not witnessed in the five years that have passed since the latter assumed its presidency, any remarkable development recorded for him.

Imamoglu's departure from his mission as mayor of a major municipality, and his pursuit of a political ambition that would lead him to lead the country (as most analysts see it) caused a violent shock among the population, and also created popular dissatisfaction, which reached its peak in early January 2022, when more than 100 tweeters launched... A thousand tweets via various hashtags, criticizing his failure to manage the consequences of a snowstorm that struck the city, completely disrupting traffic.

The tweets were described as sharp, and sometimes sarcastic, messages from a public complaining about the absence of emergency services and relief measures, and the absence of the official municipal staff, whose president, “according to circulated photos,” was having a luxurious dinner in one of the main restaurants.

Accept mistakes

In a step described as necessary, the Justice and Development Party re-evaluated the harvest of its previous stage after losing Istanbul and its sisters. President Erdogan explained in a message to the party’s management, saying, “Wherever we make a mistake, we will accept it without any complexity, and we will search for ways to correct it.”

In this regard, the head of the Justice and Development Party in Istanbul, Osman Nuri Kabak Tepe, confirmed that the party conducted analyzes of the local elections, and it turned out that the dynamics of the June 2019 local elections, which witnessed a runoff and which Akrem Imamoglu won by a difference of 800,000 votes, were different.

He continued in a press conference, "We conducted our assessments of the results of the runoff round of local elections in June, in addition to the first round elections in March, where we found that the voting percentage in Istanbul should be between 50% and 51%, and not less than 48%." .

According to Ersin Celik, editor-in-chief of the website of the Yeni Şafak daily newspaper, the initial assessments conducted by the party highlighted the presence of economic reasons.

He said, "The uncontrolled increase in house rents in the state of Istanbul is clear. Living life in Istanbul has become increasingly difficult. Shelter is turning into a major problem. If the Justice and Development Party wants to win the local elections in Istanbul, it must find solutions to the basic economic problems of the people." City".

Istanbul again

Under the umbrella of the slogan raised by his party, “Istanbul Again,” Murat Kurum, the Justice and Development candidate for the presidency of its greater municipality, presented himself.

Unlike Imamoglu, who used problematic national issues in his electoral project in the hope of strengthening his score with new votes after losing the support of his allies in the opposition, Korum focuses his project on a clear and specific mission, which is to rehabilitate the city. “For the sake of 16 million Istanbulites, we will work to combat "Chaos and poor organization in the state, and removing our people's fears about the earthquake."

He stressed in a tweet on the X website, "We know Istanbul and what the people of Istanbul expect from us. We will eliminate the current chaos as quickly as possible."

The electoral competition is escalating today, and the beating of hearts increases as the voting date approaches. It is undoubtedly a difficult time... but not for Kabak Tepe and the Justice Party, which repeats, "We are not concerned with the identity of our opponent, whoever the competitor is. We are confident in our strength."

Source: Al Jazeera