Washington — Turkey's first round of elections ended Sunday without any presidential candidate securing an absolute majority, meaning the top two contenders will face off again in the May 28 presidential run-off.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu will compete for the post of president, at a time when Washington is showing a neutral stance and equidistant from both candidates.
U.S. officials' remarks remain neutral in their comments on Turkish elections (Getty Images)
Difficult relations between the two countries
Washington and Ankara have difficult relations that are more complex than the traditional relations between a major power with interests around the world and a major regional power looking for influence in its geographical sphere.
The United States is an actual leader of NATO, while Turkey has the second largest army participating in the alliance after the United States, and is considered one of the allies of the United States in general, but several files have contributed to the tension of relations between the two countries over the past years.
Among the most prominent of these issues are Turkey's purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, disputes over Turkey's military presence inside Syria, human rights and the "Armenian massacre", tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, Sweden's accession to NATO, and Turkey's bloated relationship with Russia.
Tensions.. Same to you
Hosting Turkish dissident Fethullah Gulen is another factor complicating relations between the two countries.
Albert Kushkun, a Turkey expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes that Washington is concerned about Ankara's deepening ties with Moscow, and President Biden has not invited Erdogan to attend the two U.S.-chaired democracy summits because of Washington's view of the decline of the rule of law and freedoms in Turkey.
Turkey, in turn, remains angry at Washington's policy of supporting Kurdish elements in Syria affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), and Ankara is also concerned about deepening political ties and defense cooperation between its arch-rival Greece and the United States.
Charles Kupshan, a former senior official on the U.S. National Security Council, says the relationship between Washington and Ankara has improved considerably, and weeks ago the United States gave the green light to sell military software to Turkey to help it modernize its F-16 fighter jets.
The volume of trade exchange between the two countries rose last year to nearly $ 34 billion, of which $ 19 billion were US exports compared to $ 15 billion in Turkish exports.
The United States fears a Turkish-Russian rapprochement, especially in light of Ankara's important role since the Ukrainian war (Reuters)
Washington warned
During his 2020 election campaign, President Joe Biden called Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan an "autocrat" and said the United States should support Erdogan's opponents.
Relations between the two countries improved significantly after Biden came to power, and the two presidents met several times on the sidelines of NATO summits or meetings of the Group of Twenty countries.
The Russian war in Ukraine has doubled Turkey's importance to Washington, especially because of its position on supplying Ukraine with Turkish drones, and its pivotal role in the Ukrainian grain export agreement.
Asked on Sunday about the first round of Turkish elections, Biden replied: "I just hope ... Whoever wins wins," and thus his administration adopts a neutral stance among the candidates.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby reiterated Biden's position, saying, "We congratulate the Turkish people for expressing their wishes at the ballot box in a peaceful manner, and the Turkish people must decide what their government looks like."
Many of his administration see Erdogan as an illiberal ruler who has harmed democracy in his country, but at the same time they realize that Turkey is also a strategic ally in NATO and in Russia's war on Ukraine.
The Biden administration has remained silent about their preferences in recent months, despite the fact that the majority of administration officials prefer to lose Erdogan, who does not enjoy much sympathy among influential circles in Washington, mainly due to his Islamic and nationalist orientations, and that he is ultimately a representative of the political Islam movement, which Washington and most Western capitals do not prefer to come to power in the Middle East.
The Biden administration's caution when speaking publicly about Turkish elections stems from the cost of Washington appearing to be interfering in foreign elections other than calling for them to be free, fair, and nonviolent.
At the same time, the Biden administration is unwilling to provide materials that President Erdogan's campaign can exploit to get more votes.
The Turkish president has accused his opposition of working with Washington and criticized U.S. Ambassador Jeff Flake for meeting with rival Kılıçdaroğlu.
Washington and the Promises of Kleicdar
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Turkish opposition candidate Kılıçdaroğlu indicated that Ankara would comply with Western decisions on sanctions on Russia and vowed to agree to Sweden's accession to NATO before its summit in July.
Despite the opposition leader's promises, Soner Gagaptai, a Turkey expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said U.S. officials tread cautiously during the first round and are likely to continue to do so throughout the runoff.
Cagaptay said in a paper published by the institute: "Washington's policy was neutral in the hope that Kılıçdaroğlu would win, but maybe not."
Stephen Cook, a Turkey expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that if he wins, foreign policy under Erdogan is likely to be no different from what it is now, as he seeks to recalibrate relations with the United States.
But Cook said Kılıçdaroğlu's foreign policy priorities were much more difficult, and he had remained silent about the nature of future relations with the United States.