Observers expect the Turkish local elections to witness surprises (Anatolia)

ANKARA -

61 million Turkish voters are preparing to participate in the local elections scheduled to be held tomorrow, Sunday, to choose the heads of municipalities, regions, and mukhtars in a competition that includes 34 political parties in all 81 states, to assume municipal duties for the next 5 years.

The local elections are being held this time amid a tense and complex political scene, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who announced that these elections will be his last, seeks to regain control over major municipalities, such as Istanbul and Ankara, which his party lost in the 2019 elections. On the other hand, the opposition is exploiting them as an opportunity. To confirm its presence and strengthen its positions, seeking to maintain its current leadership and consolidate its position in preparation for the upcoming presidential battle.

Opinion polls conducted before elections in Turkey are of great importance to political parties and the public alike, as their results are considered a double-edged tool. Sometimes it influences voters' decisions and orientations, and at other times it gives politicians a proactive glimpse into general trends and potential shifts in election results, which may open the door to new deals and alliances.

Looking at the opinion polls conducted by the most reliable research centers in Turkey, whose predictions for the past presidential elections were more accurate, we find a convergence in the numbers of the candidates, especially the city of Istanbul, which is witnessing a heated competition between the candidate of the Republican People’s Party, Ekrem Imamoglu, and the candidate of the People’s Alliance, Murat Kurum.

In his interview with Al Jazeera Net, the academic researcher at Ankara University, Cenk Sirajoglu, described the recent opinion poll numbers as a "marathon of surprises", expecting that Sunday evening would bring unexpected developments that might anger both parties.

The city of Istanbul is witnessing a fierce competition between Imamoglu (right) and Murat Kurum (social media sites)

Results of opinion polls

The average results of 14 opinion polls conducted by various centers during this March in Istanbul revealed that the candidate İmamoğlu took the lead with 42.8%, followed by Murat Kurum with 39.7%, while the candidate of the Kurdish Popular Equality and Democracy Party was able to secure third place, thus exceeding expectations of the parties’ superiority. Others like new and good well-being.

Sirajoglu comments on these results by saying, “In light of the complexity of the situation in Istanbul and the diversity of voters’ ideological orientations, it is difficult to make accurate predictions. Despite my personal expectation that surprises will emerge in Istanbul, it should be noted that there is a decline in the credibility of polling centers, especially after the presidential elections of 2017.” 2023, which showed Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu ahead of President Erdogan by at least 3%, which was not achieved.”

In the race for the Ankara municipality, the results of opinion polls conducted by the city’s four most prominent opinion polling centers showed the Republican People’s Party’s candidate Mansur Yavaş leading by 47%, ahead of the People’s Alliance candidate Turgut Altinok, who received 37.6%. But the results presented by the "ARIA" Polling Center sparked a heated debate, as it expected a landslide victory for Yavash with 60% compared to 30.5% for Altinok.

The same situation was in the city of Izmir, a stronghold of the opposition, where the Republican People's Candidate Cemil Togay came out on top with 43.8%, compared to 34.9% for the competing candidate, according to the average of what was announced by 6 polling centers in the city.

The population of the states affected by the earthquake reaches 14 million (16%) of the population of Turkey (Reuters)

Loyalty of the earthquake states

Sirajoglu believes that the strong expectations of the opposition's victory in Ankara and Izmir are due to the great support and wide acceptance enjoyed by Yavaş, the current mayor of Ankara, as well as the favorable demographic situation for the opposition in Izmir.

However, the researcher points out that the People's Alliance's obtaining about 32% of the votes in the recent presidential elections gives an indication that the convictions of Turkish voters may change quickly, even in areas dominated by the opposition.

The results of the polls indicate a significant advance for the People's Alliance led by the ruling Justice and Development Party at the expense of the Republican People's Party in what has become known as the "earthquake states", which are Kahramanmaraş, Adıyaman, Elazig, Gaziantep, Kilis, Malatya, Osmaniye and Şanlıurfa.

It is noteworthy that the votes of the residents of those states that went to the Public Alliance in the local elections in 2019 did not change after the earthquake, as President Erdogan topped in all of them during the 2023 presidential elections.

The competition for the mayor of Istanbul is considered the most important battle in the Turkish local elections (Al Jazeera)

Credibility is at stake

As the local elections approached, research companies intensified their announcements of poll results, which sparked a state of controversy and public debate about the reliability and accuracy of these results. This wave of debate comes in the wake of the recent presidential and parliamentary elections, the results of which revealed significant deviations between companies’ expectations and electoral reality, highlighting the challenges facing the industry and raising questions about its future in providing reliable data.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, political analyst Burak Bulut said, “Every election cycle renews the debate about the reliability and accuracy of opinion polls, and this debate deepens especially when comparing the election results with the expectations set by these polls. The recent presidential elections in 2023 provided a stark example of the wide gaps between expectations.” Opinion polls and the electoral reality we witnessed.

He points to several factors that contribute to this gap, ranging from methodological issues to deficiencies in survey design, to problems in determining samples. “It is not only financial constraints and a lack of experts and qualified staff that hinder the quality of these surveys, but also the suspicious relationships between some polling institutions and political parties raise Doubts about the objectivity of its results.

He also touches on the major role that opinion polls play in shaping social perception and their impact on the electoral process, stressing that “the repeated attempts at manipulation that we witness in every election cycle raise big question marks about the reliability and accuracy of the data provided by these polls.”

Bulut concludes his speech by emphasizing the importance of transparency in presenting poll methodologies, and calls for “the establishment of effective oversight mechanisms by civil society and public pressure to ensure the integrity of opinion polls and thus enhance confidence in their results.”

Source: Al Jazeera