Washington, Moscow and 3 Arab capitals. What are the most prominent countries influencing the events in Sudan?

Khartoum – Sudan is located in the midst of a wide network of regional and international interests and intersections that have continuously cast a shadow over its political scene, in light of its distinguished African position and its acquisition of an appreciated place in relations with Arab countries.

The importance of Sudan is growing with the classification of this country by the countries of the world as an important card that serves a group of interests in the context of international balances, extending influence and reducing irregular migration, as Sudan represents an important crossing for migrants to European shores.

During the political crisis that has befallen Sudan since the actions of the army commander on October 25, 2021, regional and international interventions and efforts emerged to end it and help restore civilian rule, which resulted in divisions in the handling of some countries with the crisis, from the fact that their military and political parties enjoy close relations with important countries that do not miss the intersections of interests.

How does the Egyptian position affect the scene?

Egypt sees Sudan as an important country for its national security, especially with the emergence of the Renaissance Dam crisis in Ethiopia, which Cairo considers a threat to its water security.

Egypt emerged as one of the guarantors of the political agreement in 2019 between civilians and the army after the overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir, and it also appeared to support the measures of the army commander in 2021, but it was not part of the international efforts within the framework of the Quartet (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, America and Britain) to reach a political settlement through the framework agreement already signed on December 2022, <>, but stressed the need to expand the agreement, and the Egyptian intelligence service hosted a large group of parties and blocs that were not included in it Framework Agreement.

This division contributed to a sharp aggravation of the political situation with the continued refusal of the "Cairo Group" – which includes armed movements in Darfur and forces from eastern Sudan and other entities – to respond to the voices calling for the completion of the final agreement.

Army commanders have strong support from the Egyptian leadership, and the military leans towards groups demanding wider participation in the agreement, while the RSF sided with calls for the completion of the agreement with those who attended while seeking to include armed movements.

In his latest remarks, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi considered what is happening in Sudan an internal affair that should not be interfered with. He said – during his presidency on Monday meeting of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces – that Egypt's position is fixed and does not change, which is non-interference in the affairs of countries, pointing out that the current conflict is not in the interest of Sudan.

Sisi announced a call for the Sudanese to negotiate and stop fighting, adding, "We seek to maintain the non-escalation of the situation in Sudan."

The Egyptian president said that history will record Egypt's position on what is happening now in the Sudan crisis, and its constant quest to maintain its stability, stressing that Egypt's foreign policy is balanced and moderate.

What is the nature of the Saudi role?

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is an important member of the Quartet on the situation in Sudan, and supports the framework agreement, and promised the parties economic support once the civilian government was formed, and its role was effective in stabilizing the foundations of the change that overthrew the government of President Omar al-Bashir, as it provided in-kind assistance to the civilian government to revive the economy, and repeatedly supported Khartoum by sending food and health aid during flood disasters.

The Saudi ambassador in Khartoum is trying to move between all political parties to get them to overcome differences, taking the initiative to host informal meetings to settle between the parties during the crisis that later hit the situation.

Saudi Arabia's leaders enjoy a good relationship with Rapid Support Commander Mohammed Hamdan Daglo (Hemedti), whose forces actively participated in the Saudi-led Decisive Storm coalition for the Houthi war in Yemen, where about 15,5 troops were sent at the beginning of the battles, before their number recently shrunk to about <>,<>.

During a joint call last Saturday, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan and his Emirati counterparts Abdullah bin Zayed and American Antony Blinken discussed the situation in Sudan following the intensification of battles.

The Saudi Press Agency (SPA) said that "during the joint call, they discussed the current situation in the Republic of Sudan, while stressing the importance of stopping the military escalation and returning to the framework agreement, in a way that guarantees the security and stability of Sudan and its people."

In a statement, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed the Kingdom's deep concern over the escalation and military clashes, and called on the military component and all political leaders in Sudan to give priority to the language of dialogue, restraint and wisdom, and to unite ranks in a way that contributes to completing the consensus achieved, including the framework agreement aimed at reaching a political declaration, under which political stability and economic recovery are achieved.

Does the UAE influence events?

The United Arab Emirates is an active member of the Quartet and enjoys a good relationship with the Rapid Support Commander, which is said to include extensive economic and financial ties, but the UAE's remarkable role was to host meetings between Israeli and Sudanese officials, as it hosted in October 2021 a meeting between the Sudanese Minister of Justice at the time, Nasreddin Abdel Bari, and Idan Roll, Deputy Foreign Minister of Israel, and the Sudanese minister also met with the Israeli Minister of Regional Cooperation.

In January 2021, Sudan's Minister of Justice signed the Abraham Peace Agreement, which provides for tolerance among the countries of the region, including Israel.

At the time, these meetings angered the civilian government, which did not agree to normalization, saying that it was up to an elected government, but both military commanders and the RSF stretched the ropes of normalization with no regard for the government's declared position.

In April 2021, the UAE tried to play a role in the calm between Sudan and Ethiopia based on its good relations with Addis Ababa when the border crisis between the two countries worsened, by putting forward an initiative that proposed the return of the Sudanese army to its focal points before November 2020, when tensions began, and dividing agricultural areas between Abu Dhabi, Addis Ababa and Khartoum to be investment lands.

However, Khartoum has reservations about this initiative, saying that it adheres to the placement of border markers in accordance with the 1902 Convention as a basis for any subsequent cooperation or understandings.

Many Sudanese political figures also enjoy close ties with the UAE, and Abu Dhabi has previously hosted informal consultations to advance Sudan's civil democratic transition and curb the expansion of Islamists, and the UAE has expressed early support for the framework agreement paving the way for the transfer of power to a civilian government.

Regarding the crisis between the army and the Rapid Support, Abu Dhabi is moving with the Quartet to calm the situation, as the UAE embassy in Khartoum said that it "follows with great concern the current events in Sudan, and stresses the UAE's firm position on the need to reduce escalation, work to find a peaceful solution to the crisis between the parties concerned, and the need to support efforts to support the political process and achieve national consensus towards the formation of a government."

The United States is the strongest player

The United States is pushing hard for Sudan to enter the democratic fray and sign a final agreement between the military and civilians, insisting that any economic support for this exhausted country depends on the agreement, and also wants to distance Sudan from the orbit of Russia, which seeks to build a Russian base in the Red Sea.

Through continuous visits and contacts with US officials, Washington is working to push the military to speed up the departure of power and hand it over to civilians, especially after the resigned Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok succeeded in removing Sudan from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, restoring Khartoum's communication with the outside world, and resuming international support and grants that had been pending for many years.

In December 2021, the Congressional Foreign Affairs Committee approved sanctions against those responsible for destabilizing Sudan, and voted to pass two sanctions bills, one condemning the military coup in the country and supporting the Sudanese people, and the other entitled the Sudan Democracy Act, which includes binding sanctions on those responsible for destabilizing the country's civilian-led transition.

Last Monday, the US Secretary of State made two calls to the commanders of the army and the Rapid Support, trying to convince them to declare a 24-hour truce for humanitarian purposes, considering that the step will pave the way for negotiations, which the two parties officially agreed.

Is Russia still a strategic ally of the military?

Isolated President Omar al-Bashir has been known for his distinguished relations with the Russians for a long time, as Moscow was a diplomatic and military ally of Khartoum, providing it with weapons and aid at the United Nations, especially with the tense relations between Khartoum and Washington, as Russia invested in this divergence and was able to expand its security cooperation with Sudan, especially with the latter's important location on the Red Sea.

After the departure of the Bashir regime, the military system continued to strengthen ties with Russia, especially the commander of the Rapid Support Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who visited Moscow in conjunction with the start of the war in Ukraine, which raised wide questions, and Western countries did not hide their anger at this communication, considering that Hemedti opens a door for Russian intervention in Africa, given the man's extended relations with both the leaders of Chad and Central Africa, which are areas of strong influence struggle between the Russians and European countries.