The process of launching an anti-submarine missile from the Russian "Marshal Shaposhnikov" in previous maneuvers (Reuters)

In a surprising step, the Russian ambassador to Asmara, Igor Mozgu, announced that his country would conduct joint military maneuvers with the Eritrean Navy as part of activities carried out by the Russian frigate “Marshal Shaposhnikov” on Eritrean shores between March 28 and April 5, 2024.

"Marshal Shaposhnikov" is the first Russian ship to conduct this type of training with the Eritrean army since the latter's independence in 1993.

While Eritrean media announced that this visit was linked to the commemoration of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, the inflammatory context that the southern Red Sea region is going through and the struggles of international and regional powers over influence there pose a broader geopolitical vision.

“We are here” message from Russia

“Russia’s war in Ukraine revives the Red Sea as a vital route for oil.” With this title, Bloomberg Agency summarized the extreme importance that this strategic corridor has for Moscow, as European sanctions following the outbreak of the Ukrainian war led to Moscow’s expansion in exporting its hydrocarbons to Asia through this narrow artery. .

According to data reported by the US Energy Information Administration, oil exports from Russia constituted 74% of the southbound oil movement through the Suez Canal in the first half of 2023, up from 30% in 2021, and most of these shipments are heading to India and China via Bab al-Mandab.

In contrast, the Middle East region - particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE - increased its imports of refined petroleum products from Russia in 2022 and the first half of 2023 in order to generate, store or re-export electrical energy.

Although some analyzes suggest that Russia was not harmed by the security turmoil resulting from the Houthi attacks, the United States’ attempt to reshape the security system in the south of the Red Sea cannot be viewed with reassurance in Moscow, where Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Russian president, described the American-British attacks on the Houthis. Illegally.

In this context, Washington has taken many steps. On December 18, 2023, it established an alliance called the “Guardian of Prosperity,” which includes London, Moscow’s arch-European opponent since the start of the Ukrainian war. Washington has also worked to consolidate its security and military presence in Somalia through agreements. Military support for Mogadishu.

For its part, in February 2024, the European Union launched a naval mission to protect navigation in the Red Sea under the name “ASPEDS,” while last March the entry of Turkey (which has the second largest army in NATO) as a security player in the region was inaugurated through its signature. Military security agreements with both Somalia and Djibouti.

Retired American General Ralph Kalam believes in his study that military maneuvers are usually translated into political messages, and in this case Moscow seems concerned with these successive developments to prove its military and geopolitical presence, and that it is not isolated from the ongoing developments in the southern Red Sea.

Find an ally

This is directly related to Moscow highlighting its possession of strategic allies in the southern Red Sea, as Eritrea appears to be the country closest to Moscow, and relations between the two parties have witnessed continuous growth over the past years on many levels.

In a remarkable precedent, Eritrea was the only African country to vote against the United Nations General Assembly’s resolution to condemn the Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022.

This Russian necessity becomes more urgent when looking at the map of the military deployment of many major and regional powers in the southern Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, as Djibouti alone contains the largest American military base in Africa and the only Chinese military base abroad, in addition to French, Italian, Japanese and other bases.

In the midst of this international crowd, Russia appears to be “the most prominent absentee from the party,” and Moscow’s hopes were pinned on building a military base on the Sudanese shores.

A paper issued by the Al Jazeera Center for Studies monitors Sudan’s transformation into an arena of American-Russian conflict against the backdrop of Moscow’s ambitions, which were aborted by Western pressure during the era of Abdullah Hamdok’s government.

In Sudan after April 15, 2023, things do not look any better, as many reports indicate that there is military cooperation between the Sudanese Sovereignty Council and Ukraine, which narrows the room for maneuver for Russia, which forces it to strengthen its alliance with Eritrea as a suitable alternative to the Sudanese option.

Red Sea security arrangements

For its part, Asmara will not look with satisfaction at the developments associated with the United States’ restoration of security arrangements in the Red Sea, because hostility and mutual mistrust have been the basis of relations between the two parties over the past two decades.

In this context, Asmara does not only seem interested in strengthening its relations with international powers competing with Washington, such as Moscow and Beijing, but has gone beyond that to developing its ties with Western powers with which its relations have been characterized by relative warmth, such as Italy, which represented the spearhead in the demand for the formation of a European naval force separate from its American counterpart in the region. South of the Red Sea, Rome is also the one leading this European mission called "Aspidus".

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki was the most prominent leader participating in the African-Italian summit last February, where his visit lasted for days during which he met with official figures and actors, which some observers interpreted as Asmara’s desire to demonstrate its ability to break the Western siege imposed on it.

Highlighting external allies is a goal in which Asmara meets Moscow, and it also invests propaganda in social media networks in which supporters of the Eritrean government celebrate the maneuvers between the two parties as a victory and a correct step in confronting Washington and the Western system.

Asmara to Washington route via Moscow

Relations with the West, on the one hand, and Ethiopia, on the other hand, have always remained a major determinant of Eritrean foreign policy, and in this context, Asmara’s embrace of these maneuvers appears to carry a set of goals, as the Eritrean regime uses this event and the strengthening of its relations with both Beijing and Moscow as a means of pressuring Washington for serious and effective intervention. To force Ethiopia to carry out a final demarcation of the borders between the two countries in accordance with the Algiers Agreement signed in 2000 and the decisions of the International Court of Justice issued in the same year, which confirmed Eritrea’s ownership of some lands under Ethiopia’s control.

Addis Ababa has since refused to return these lands and permanently demarcate the borders between the two countries.

On December 12, 2023, the US State Department spokesman announced in a press statement that his country supported the Algiers Agreement and encouraged Ethiopia and Eritrea to work towards a more stable and prosperous region, highlighting the importance of respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the two countries.

Observers believe that Washington taking a step in this direction is the way to convince Asmara that there are serious changes in the American approach towards it that go beyond the American attempts to contain Eritrea that appeared in its strategy issued in November 2023.

In comparison with its older version, the updated strategy contained positive changes for Asmara, as it deleted from it, for example, what was previously described as the main goal of the American strategy, which is “developing the next generation in Eritrea and preparing for the era after Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki.”

Russia in the equations of the conflict between the two neighbors

These maneuvers come in a context in which Eritrean fears of the giant southern neighbor are escalating, with the demands of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to obtain a sovereign sea port on the Red Sea, which led to Asmara mobilizing its forces on the southern Assab front in anticipation of any possible Ethiopian invasion after relations reached... Between the two countries, the dispute over many files reached a critical point.

According to what was monitored by a paper issued by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, Eritrea’s strengthening of its military relations with major powers such as Russia appears to be a usual tactic that Asmara resorts to if it feels threatened in the turbulent environment of the Horn of Africa.

In this context, Moscow appears to be an internationally influential ally capable of supporting Eritrea militarily when necessary, as Russia was the first country to enter the Eritrean arms market after UN sanctions were lifted in 2018.

Russia has also contributed to supporting Eritrea politically in international forums. Russia objected to the publication of the report of the United Nations Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea submitted to the Security Council in 2013, describing the conclusions and recommendations as “biased and baseless.”

Moscow also expressed its reservations in the Security Council regarding the decision to expand sanctions on Eritrea in 2011 by abstaining from voting, which was repeated in 2014. In addition, Russia was the first permanent member of the Security Council to demand the lifting of sanctions on Eritrea in August 2018.

Thus, these maneuvers represent a natural development in a context that witnesses the strengthening of Russian-Eritrean relations and carry internal and external messages in which the two parties share work to break the Western blockade imposed on them, and express concern about the American moves aimed at reformulating the security arrangements in the southern Red Sea.

Source: Al Jazeera + websites