Highlights: Satellite images published by the Washington Post document new lines of defense in Crimea. These are mainly trenches and "dragon's teeth", concrete and steel blocks placed on the ground to slow down the assaults of armored vehicles. If Russia is strengthening its lines ofdefense in Crimea, it is because it takes seriously the hypothesis of a Ukrainian assault on the peninsula. Many experts, however, consider this scenario unlikely, given the limited capabilities of the Ukrainian army and the immense difficulties presented by such an operation.

Faced with the threat of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russia fortifies Crimea

To support the troops stationed on the peninsula, Russia will then only have the Kerch bridge, which was already the target of an attack last October and could therefore become the most vulnerable point of the Russian device in the region. AFP--

Text by: Daniel Vallot Follow

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Trenches, minefields and fortifications to break the momentum of the tanks: the Russian army multiplies the lines of defense in anticipation of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. These fortifications have appeared in recent months on the entire front line, but also in Crimea, the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.

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It was satellite images published by the Washington Post that made it possible to document precisely these new lines of defense, built in recent weeks by the Russian military. These are mainly trenches and "dragon's teeth", concrete and steel blocks placed on the ground to slow down the assaults of armored vehicles. According to images published by the newspaper, provided by Maxar, an American satellite company, two sectors were fortified as a priority: the surroundings of Medvedivka, near one of the two crossing points between mainland Ukraine and the occupied peninsula, and those of Vitino, on the western coast of Crimea.

The trenches were dug in a few weeks, with the help of the famous "BTM-3", Soviet-designed machines that operate in record time, 800 meters per hour, even on frost-stricken ground. "Unsurprisingly, these lines of defense are concentrated on the strip of land that connects Crimea to Ukraine and on the western coast, especially on the beaches north of Yevpatoria, where a landing is possible," notes historian Martin Motte of the Institute for Comparative Strategy.

« So it's the idea that there could be a threat of an assault on Crimea both by land and by an amphibious operation. This classic scenario is that of most historical precedents: the conquest of the peninsula by the Russians against the Tatars in the eighteenth century, the capture of the territory by the Bolsheviks during the civil war in 1919, and the Soviet reconquest during the Second World War. The only exception was the German assault in 1941, which was carried out solely by land. »

Perekop Isthmus

If Russia is strengthening its lines of defense in Crimea, it is because it takes seriously the hypothesis of a Ukrainian assault on the peninsula. A scenario that many experts, however, consider unlikely - given the limited capabilities of the Ukrainian army and the immense difficulties presented by such an operation. "The entrance to the peninsula is through the isthmus of Perekop, an arm of land about 5 to 7 kilometers long," says Martin Motte. Then you approach an area in which you have a lot of lakes and swamps, and which is therefore very easy to defend. Finally, if they want to attempt a landing by the beaches, the Ukrainians will need control of the sea. And they no longer have a navy, only American-supplied speedboats. These can certainly allow them to carry out commando operations, but probably not to carry out a large-scale landing.

Not sure that Ukraine has the means to carry out such an offensive - even without mentioning Crimea - Pentagon documents leaked on social networks also show that the American services doubt the ability of Ukrainian forces to carry out a counter-offensive in depth. And they are also worried about the fortification lines established by the Russians, which could pose serious problems for the attackers.

"Cut" the Russian device

However, the Ukrainian leaders tirelessly repeat that they will take back Crimea, and this, by all means: "Everything started with Crimea, everything will end with it," insists the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky. And this is a very sensitive subject, because Ukraine's allies are worried not only about the strategic difficulties of such a scenario, but above all about Russia's reaction in the event of an attack on this territory. In Vladimir Putin's entourage, the use of the nuclear army to defend Crimea is not excluded, this is the meaning of recent statements by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

Many experts therefore believe that a more likely and "reasonable" scenario would be for Ukraine to make the Russian presence in Crimea untenable, by increasing strikes and sabotage actions, without trying to retake the territory by force. The major strategic objective of the Ukrainian counter-offensive would then be to "cut" the land corridor linking Crimea to Donbass, seizing the cities of Melitopol and Berdiansk. To support the troops stationed on the peninsula, Russia will then only have the Kerch bridge, which was already the target of an attack last October and could therefore become the most vulnerable point of the Russian device in the region.

Faced with the threat of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russia fortifies Crimea

Faced with the threat of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russia fortifies Crimea

Perekop Isthmus

"Cut" the Russian device

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