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Russian withdrawal from the grain agreement: Turkish diplomacy put to the test

Turkish and Russian Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin during their talks on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, September 16, 2022. AP - Alexandr Demyanchuk

Text by: RFI Follow

5 mins

Turkey indicated on Saturday October 29 that it had not " 

 " by Russia of its withdrawal from the international agreement on Ukrainian cereals, signed on July 22 in Istanbul, under the aegis of the United Nations, thanks to a Turkish mediation.

His suspension puts Ankara under pressure, and plunges the world into uncertainty.

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Russia announced on Saturday the suspension of the export of grain from Ukrainian ports.

An announcement from the Ministry of Defense, on the social network Telegram.

Moscow justified this suspension by a drone attack, Saturday morning, on military and civilian ships of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, stationed in the bay of Sevastopol, in annexed Crimea.

The Black Sea initiative had made it possible, this summer, to find a way out of the blocking of Ukrainian cereals.

Two agreements signed by the UN, Ukraine, Russia and Turkey.

The aim was to organize the export of cereals and fertilizers from Ukraine, but also from Russia, to limit the world food crisis in the context of the conflict in Ukraine.

►Read again:

kyiv denounces a "pretext"

This so-called Black Sea agreement had made it possible to unblock the export of nine million tonnes of Ukrainian cereals by sea, against the backdrop of the naval war waged by Russia in the waters of the Black Sea, and in particular around the main Ukrainian port. of Odessa, recalls our correspondent in Kiev,

.

It was due to expire on November 19, but Moscow seems to have decided to scuttle it, again raising the risk of a global food crisis.

The Kremlin announced its decision just hours after a maritime drone, presumably Ukrainian, hit the flagship of its fleet in the Black Sea, in the bay of Sevastopol.

Moscow denounces a terrorist action by the kyiv authorities, with the complicity of the United Kingdom, against ships involved in the security of grain corridors...

Ukrainian observers consider legitimate military action against a frigate bombarding Ukrainian cities with deadly cruise missiles.

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba speaks of a false pretext by Moscow to block the export of grain to millions of people.

The Ukrainian presidency recalled that Ukraine had not signed a grain agreement with Russia, but only with Turkey and the United Nations, because Moscow “ 

 ”.

On Saturday evening, Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of again risking a large-scale family in Africa and Asia, recalling that the issue was not new, but that since September the Russian Navy had blocked 176 ships and the export of more than two million tons of cereals.

► Listen again:

Turkey in trouble

Vladimir Putin's decision, which Turkish officials had feared for some time, puts Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's country in a difficult position and risks creating tensions between Ankara and Moscow, explains our correspondent in Istanbul,

.

In recent weeks, the Turkish president had certainly taken up certain criticisms of his Russian counterpart, in particular on the maintenance of obstacles to the export of Russian fertilizers and cereals.

But behind the scenes, Turkish diplomacy was busy ensuring the extension of the agreement beyond the November 19 deadline.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan discussed it with Vladimir Putin, proposing in particular to export Russian agricultural products via Turkish territory.

As co-guarantor of this text signed and supervised from a joint coordination center (JCC) in Istanbul, Turkey is therefore under pressure.

It not only has an economic interest in saving the agreement, but above all a diplomatic interest.

The credibility of its role as mediator and its claim to be today depends on it.

As President Erdoğan's spokesman recently underlined, the “ 

 ”.

►Read also: War in Ukraine: the EU freezes 17 billion euros in assets of Russian oligarchs and entities

Risk of repercussions

Cereals that had been stuck in Ukrainian ports since the start of the conflict last February had led to soaring prices and fears of famine in certain regions of Africa, in particular, recalls

, journalist with the economic editorial staff from RFI.

Subsequently, the July initiative led to lower market prices for wheat.

The FAO food index had thus fallen for seven consecutive months.

According to UN estimates, this has prevented 100 million people from falling into extreme poverty. 

However, in recent weeks, Vladimir Putin had expressed his dissatisfaction, complaining that the sale of his agricultural production and fertilizers was prevented.

At issue, according to Russia: Western sanctions against its financial and logistics sectors.

Three weeks before the date of the renewal of this agreement, the UN urged the parties at the end of the week to do everything possible to see this cereal initiative continued.

The United Nations feared that a further suspension of fertilizer and grain exports would have dramatic effects on food production next year.

In this same speech, the spokesperson for the UN Secretary General warned: “ 

 ” would then turn into “ 

 ”.

"It's just outrageous"

Latest reaction to date, after the Russian announcement of the day: that of the American president.

Joe Biden judged this Saturday " 

" the Russian decision to suspend the agreement on grain exports from Ukrainian ports.

“ 

 , ”he told reporters, after voting early in the midterm elections in his stronghold of Wilmington, Delaware (east).

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