Analyst Capital: How the Nuland Family Influences Coverage of the War in Ukraine

The non-profit organization The Institute for the Study of War (Institute for the Study of War, ISW) was founded in 2007 in Washington by military historian Kimberly Kagan.

Her husband Frederick Kagan, also a historian, works as a visiting analyst. 

Frederick Kagan is the brother of journalist and political strategist Robert Kagan.

Robert, in turn, is married to US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland.

Thus, ISW chief Kimberly Kagan is Nuland's sister-in-law. 

The Kagan couple was called "warmongers" in the press because in 2007 they actually became the main ideologists of the strategy of "strengthening" the presence of the military in Iraq.

At the same time, the left wing of American politicians considered them to be supporters of a neoconservative ideology based on an aggressive foreign policy.

"The Institute for the Study of War promotes an informed understanding of military matters through sound research and sound analysis," the ISW website says.

"We are committed to improving the nation's ability to conduct military operations and respond to emerging threats to achieve US strategic goals."

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The Kagan-Nuland family treats the Russian Federation with special attention.

Frederick Kagan studied the features of the military reforms of Nicholas I, the military history of tsarist and Soviet Russia.

And Victoria Nuland is one of America's leading experts on Russia and Russian culture.

She has been on the “Russian theme” since the 1990s, when she was in charge of relations with the administration of President Boris Yeltsin at the American embassy. 

At the same time, Nuland has Ukrainian roots.

Her grandfather, Meyer Nudelman, was originally from the Chernivtsi region of Ukraine - he came to the United States in 1907.

Nuland knows the Russian language and Russian culture well.

In 1982, she managed to work as a pioneer camp leader in Soviet Odessa, and at the age of 23 she worked as an interpreter on a Soviet fishing boat. 

The ISW leadership also includes retired US Army General Jack Keane, former Deputy Chief of Staff of the US Army. 

“This is a kind of“ feeder ”, a bench for former government officials whom the state does not want to let go far from itself - in which case they can use their knowledge or return them to the civil service when the need arises,” explains the nature of the functioning of such institutions of thought, an Americanist, political scientist Mikhail Sinelnikov-Orishak.

- Retirees are interested in not letting themselves be forgotten.

As long as they prepare the “correct” reports, they will receive grants.” 

Analytics with a twist

In the 2010s, the geography of interests of the Institute for the Study of War was wide.

The NPO studied the conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, studied the military activity of IS*. 

But since 2020, the activity of work in these areas has been falling.

ISW published the latest updates on Iraq on the website in 2020; the institute’s interest in Syria and ISW faded in 2016. 

Since 2022, the main research topics of ISW are concentrated around Ukraine.

In 2020, the institute hired two key analysts of Ukrainian origin, Natalia Bugaeva and Kateryna Stepanenko.

Both employees are originally from Kyiv, both specialize exclusively in projects related to Russia and Ukraine.

Bugaeva previously worked in the office of the Minister of Economic Development of Ukraine Pavlo Sheremeta. 

Back in November 2021, ISW experts published data that, in their opinion, indicated that Russia was preparing an invasion of Ukraine. 

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Since the beginning of Russia's hostilities in Ukraine, ISW has been publishing daily "reports from the front" on its website - analytical materials, including value judgments and detailed maps of hostilities, in their opinion, revealing the tactical planning of the Russian military command. 

Strictly speaking, the first such material appeared on January 25, 2022, a month before the start of the SVO of the RF Ministry of Defense.

In fact, it was a map revealing the location of Russian and Belarusian units in the areas bordering Ukraine.

Such data could only be obtained through satellites.

“Let's say they receive an order: to cover such topics in the press.

It is clear that such an institute cannot have access to data from military reconnaissance satellites, ”Yuri Rogulev, associate professor of the history department of Moscow State University, director of the Franklin Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the United States, tells RT.

“Through them, certain information is simply realized, which is thrown to them to form public opinion.” 

Experts of the institute form public opinion through Western media with world-famous names.

They are quoted by the BBC, The Washington Post, CNN.

Of the latter, the BBC referred to ISW in an article explaining that the loss of Severodonetsk is not painful for Ukraine.

In materials on the WP website, Nuland's sister-in-law institution is mentioned 69 times, on all subsections of the BBC website - 4690 times, on the CNN website - 149 times. 

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Any event that leaves the possibility of interpreting it in a disadvantageous light for the Russian military will be interpreted that way by the experts of the Institute for the Study of War.

For example, the death of the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the missile cruiser Moskva, according to ISW experts, was the result of the unpreparedness of Russian sailors.

Other causes and circumstances of the sinking of the ship were not considered. 

"Both explanations for the sinking of the Moskva point to possible Russian shortcomings - either weak air defenses or incredibly weak security and damage control procedures on the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet," ISW experts Katerina Stepanenko and Mason Clark were quoted by CNN. 

As RT wrote, the Moskva cruiser sank on April 14, 2022: the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that a fire broke out on the cruiser, as a result of which the ammunition detonated.

The cause of the fire was not named.

The Ukrainian side announced the hit of the Neptune missile on the cruiser.

At the same time, the Pentagon has no data that unequivocally testifies precisely to the missile hit. 

When it comes to the actions of the Ukrainian troops, the reports of Washington analysts become soft and complimentary, justifying the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Thus, in the vision of the Institute for the Study of War, the retreat of Ukrainian troops from Lysichansk was a “deliberate” tactical move.

According to the version of events proposed by the organization, the Armed Forces of Ukraine independently decided to leave the city, and not as a result of heavy urban battles and the encirclement of the city by Russian troops and the forces of the LPR and DPR.

And this pro-Ukrainian interpretation of events from ISW is replicated to its audience, for example, by The Washington Post. 

After the loss of Lisichansk, the Ukrainian authorities, in order to justify the defeat, began to promote the ideology to the masses that a retreat was necessary so as not to lose fighters. 

“Any analytics is biased, it is subjective.

And a more or less balanced view of what is happening can only be achieved by studying several different sources.

Therefore, this is a subjective view of this structure,” continues Sinelnikov-Orishak.

- It can be dictated by different things.

Relatively speaking, sometimes it is beneficial to submit certain reports just to get the next grant or close the old one.” 

The weight of such institutions in decision-making at the state level is small, says historian Rogulev. 

“The weight of such studies should not be underestimated, but they should not be overestimated either.

The number of analytical and various structures that are designed to study issues related to the conduct of hostilities is not limited to such NGOs.

Up to 5,000 analysts work in the same CIA,” the expert continues.

“And the same CIA, in turn, can give contracts for research to similar institutions.” 

Meanwhile, ISW is more aimed at influencing the mass consciousness, continues Rogulev. 

“This is a small structure to which (US authorities. 

they  throw up certain information.

They implement it through the press, forming a certain public opinion, ”the historian sums up. 

Services in exchange for donations

In its 14 years of existence, ISW has totaled $24 million in revenue, according to all annual reports.

The institute's budget in 2020 is $1.4 million, but this is the most modest figure in recent years. 

In 2019, according to the NPO's reporting to the US Internal Revenue Service, ISW received $3.83 million. "The bulk" was support from government agencies, ISW top management writes in the report.

Of these, only $171,000 was raised by ISW through targeted fundraising activities.

The lion's share of the $3.47 million budget came from "other donations and grants," according to the report. 

The institute does not disclose the senders of these grants - information about the donors of $ 3.5 million in the report is hidden behind the signature "forbidden for publication" (restricted).

It is only clear that at least a third of the income ISW received from "state bodies" - this is indicated by the corresponding section of the report. 

NPO - yes, not really

The principle of any non-profit organization is in the absence of benefits.

It does not work for profit, but for the public good.

At the same time, the ISW budget closes with a surplus every year - its income exceeds expenses, and the institute receives part of the donations in exchange for the provision of certain information services. 

ISW receives a certain share of donations for a reason, but "in exchange for goods or services provided to the payer," as reported in the report to the US Internal Revenue Service.

In fact, the institute performs paid work in the interests and in favor of the donor - the situation is atypical for Russia, but in the United States, it turns out, this is possible. 

“This is how the system works in the US.

There are highly specialized organizations that have either private, or public, or mixed capital.

And now the state authorities give them orders for research, order some kind of forecasts, ”Rogulev explains this conflict.  

Custom research pays well.

Kimberly Kagan earned $206,000 in 2019. Another $40,000 was received by her husband, who provided mentoring services to the institute.

The two of them got a quarter of the entire salary fund for the year - the institute spent $ 1 million on staff fees. 

By creating such an “institute of thought”, Nuland and her family members combined business with pleasure, Mikhail Sinelnikov-Orishak noted in a conversation with RT. 

“Nuland is really a specialist in Russia, she has a lot to do with Russia, look at her biography,” the expert said.

- It would be strange if she did not decide purely her own interests, did not earn money on this.

And yes, of course, if the Russian direction in American politics has come to life again and seethed, it is, of course, better for her that this particular direction of the agenda becomes more relevant than, say, Iranian, where she will not be able to earn the way she earns now". 

In 2020, there was a financial lull at the institute - it earned the least in recent years, only $ 1.4 million. How the anti-Russian agenda affected the earnings of the Nuland family will be clear from the report that the institute will publish in 2023.