The world is holding its breath
How would Putin's war in Ukraine end
The Chinese president sees himself as Russia's partner in challenging America.
Reuters
The writer does not rule out that Putin will strike Ukraine with "light" nuclear weapons and turn it into another Hiroshima.
Father
Russian tanks on their way to Kyiv.
EPA
picture
Since the start of the Russian military operation in eastern Ukraine, the world has been holding its breath.
In addition to the humanitarian, security and economic repercussions on the two sides of the confrontation, a single missile that loses its way, or a decision taken without calculating its repercussions, could spark a third world war, the fragments of which are flying everywhere.
And in order not to unravel matters, and with the sound of explosions and the launching of sanctions, efforts are continuing from various parties, perhaps resulting in a soon cessation of the bloodshed and money.
However, no one knows yet how this war could end, and most of the scenarios circulating are still ranging from bad to worse.
In an opinion article published by Bloomberg News Agency, Andreas Kloth reviewed some of the proposed scenarios:
Ukrainians are winning
This scenario revolves around the Ukrainians defending themselves so that they can repel the Russian forces, which is unlikely from a military point of view, but of course the preferred outcome for most countries in the world.
The wounded and victorious Ukraine will be integrated with the coherent and resolute European Union, and its integration into the democratic West will accelerate.
And NATO will have a new driving force.
China will think twice before causing trouble to Taiwan.
However, such a scenario would put Putin in a corner, as he has always shown himself as the Russian warrior against the aggressive West, and the savior of people of Russian and Slavic (Indo-European) races everywhere.
Of course, Ukraine's victory will render it incapable of extricating itself from defeat politically.
Because he is aware of it, he will not allow this scenario to happen.
Instead of withdrawing, he will push for one of three other paths to occur.
Russian era of terrorism
Putin could significantly escalate the offensive, but with continued use of conventional weapons.
Essentially, this means continuing to bomb Ukraine until it is forced into submission.
Civilian and military casualties will be horrific, but Putin will not care.
It would include a restive and resentful Ukraine, either as a puppet state with an independent name, or as a vassal of "Greater Russia."
To crack down on his opponents at home and in Ukraine, Putin will have to move forward with turning Russia into a security state, eliminating what remains of free speech.
His empire will always be shunned by the international community.
New Afghanistan
Putin may choose to escalate less dramatically, sending enough Russian military force to Ukraine not to declare him outright defeat.
In this case, the country can then become, as Afghanistan was for the Soviet leader, Leonid Brezhnev, after 1979, or become a quagmire, as it was for the United States and its allies after 2001.
In the Afghan scenario, the human cost would be particularly horrendous for the Ukrainians, as well as for the Russians, both military and civilians, who would suffer the severity of the repression and the severity of the sanctions.
Putin will not care about all this, as long as his place in the Kremlin is secure.
Escalation for de-escalation
In this scenario, Putin would invoke the encirclement of NATO and the European Union, by supporting Ukraine with weapons and other means, and could launch one or more “limited” nuclear strikes, with so-called tactical (i.e. low-yield) warheads.
Putin will bet this time that the West will not retaliate on Ukraine's behalf, because that would lead to a nuclear exchange of fire with greater "strategic" weapons, ending in "mutual assured destruction."
Ukraine will be left, as Japan did in 1945, with no choice but to surrender.
This is why seasoned military personnel call this strategy “escalation for de-escalation.”
But the world after that will not be the same.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki will be joined by other cities on the list of humanity's shame.
But Putin will see that he has pulled himself out of an embarrassing situation.
Another Russian Revolution
On the other hand, says Kluth, there are more optimistic scenarios, and that despite the veil of propaganda and disinformation spread by Putin, enough Russians are aware of the circumstances and tragic dangers of his unjustified invasion.
And they can revolt.
Such a revolution could take the form of a large-scale, externally managed movement centered on an opposition leader, such as Alexei Navalny, or it could be a coup, or an uprising within the elite.
Kluth thought that none of these images of the rebellion were present at the moment.
He noted, however, that a domestic revolution in Russia would be by far the best outcome.
The new regime in Moscow can hold Putin solely responsible, which is actually true.
That regime could then withdraw from the Ukraine war without appearing weak, and the international community would welcome Russia back with open arms.
The world, including Russia, will be a better place.
China is interfering
The writer considered that the second best and most logical scenario concerns Beijing.
Officially, China under President Xi Jinping sees itself, if not an ally of Russia, as at least a partner in steadfastness against the West led by the United States.
But at the same time, China sees itself as a rising power, while Russia is a declining power.
Xi believes that Putin can be useful at times, but that relations with him are also a potential burden.
Kluth concludes that if China decides to tie Putin's hand, it will undoubtedly benefit.
Indeed, it is capable of pulling the economic and diplomatic lifelines that Moscow needs.
• China during the era of President Xi Jinping sees itself, if it is not an ally of Russia, then it is at least a partner to it in steadfastness in the face of the West led by the United States.
• Putin may choose to escalate in a less dramatic way, as he would send a Russian military force to Ukraine that would be sufficient not to declare an outright defeat for him. In this case, the country can then become, as Afghanistan was for the Soviet leader, Leonid Brezhnev, after 1979, or become a quagmire, as it was for the United States and its allies after 2001.
• Despite the veil of propaganda and misinformation that Putin spreads, enough Russians are aware of the circumstances of his unjustified invasion and its tragic dangers. And they can revolt. Such a revolution could take the form of a large-scale, externally managed movement centered on an opposition leader, such as Alexei Navalny, or it could be a coup, or an uprising within the elite.
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