Towards a new front in the conflict between the Ethiopian army and Tigray?
As the Ethiopian government launched a military operation against the dissident northern province, Tigray forces fired rockets on Saturday (November 14th) at Asmara, the capital of neighboring Eritrea.
The Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF), which controls the province, accuses the Eritrean government of lending a hand to the Ethiopian army by making its territory available and sending troops to the ground.
Sworn enemy of the Tigrayan government, Eritrea, which borders the entire northern border of the rebel Ethiopian region, could have a key role in the conflict in Ethiopia.
Ethiopia: Tigray forces strike the capital of Eritrea, further dangerous escalation.
© France 24
A war that leaves traces
If the Eritrean involvement in the conflict has yet to be demonstrated, its territorial ambitions in the border region have long been known.
In 1998, the incursion of Eritrean troops into the province of Badme, then controlled by Ethiopia, was the starting point of two years of bloody war.
"The war killed tens of thousands and ended without a real winner," explains David Ambrosetti, researcher at CNRS and specialist in the region.
"After the cessation of hostilities, the international community, although rather favorable to Ethiopia, recognized that the Badme region was Eritrean territory, and asked Ethiopia to cede control. However the TPLF, which then controlled the country, has always refused to give it back. "
The Tigray Peoples Liberation Front and Eritrea are however old allies: they have waged a long common war against the power in place in Ethiopia, the military junta of the Derg.
Their victory in 1991 brought the TPLF to power in Ethiopia and enabled Eritrea to become independent.
"The Tigrignaphone region extends on both sides of the border and there is a strong cultural proximity," explains David Ambrosetti.
"Nonetheless, the TPLF allowed Eritrea to gain its independence. The 1998 war upset this balance and since then the two sides have hated each other fiercely."
>> To read also: "In Ethiopia, a political conflict which turns to the war"
A half-hearted reconciliation
In 2018, this latent conflict officially ended with the arrival of the new Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed.
On September 16, a few months after the start of his mandate, the latter signed a peace agreement with Eritrea, in Saudi Arabia, under the aegis of the UN.
This historic signature earned Abiy Ahmed the Nobel Peace Prize the following year.
"Abiy Ahmed was certainly keen to turn the page with Eritrea, but this agreement goes far beyond the conflict between the two countries," said David Ambrosetti.
"Foreign powers like the United Arab Emirates and the United States were in favor of this agreement because they saw it as an opportunity to establish hitherto limited strategic military bases in Eritrea, in the region, in Djibouti. This could explain why the negotiations were also quick. "
The Tigray Peoples Liberation Front, which ruled the country until the arrival of Abiy Ahmed, has remained hostile to the peace agreement with its enemy.
"This event caused a lot of noise but had little concrete effect on the ground", judge David Ambrosetti.
"The TPLF refused to demilitarize the northern zone, judging that it had not been consulted. At the same time, relations with the central power were deteriorating and it wanted to retain the capacity to defend itself."
Towards a new war with Eritrea?
The escalation of tensions between the TPLF and Eritrea today raises fears of a new direct clash between the former ruling party in Ethiopia and its rival neighbor.
But while the Tigray authorities claim that Eritrea has gone to war, the Ethiopian government has not formalized an alliance as part of its operation against the rebel northern province.
"In view of the liabilities of the two countries, it would be very delicate for the Ethiopian power to officially allow Eritrean troops to enter. We should therefore not expect from Abiy Ahmed a confirmation of Eritrean support", judge David Ambrosetti.
"However, the TPLF is already facing the Ethiopian military, and in its situation it is unlikely that it launched strikes against Asmara for no reason."
"Eritrea is an ultramilitarized country, very efficient at producing soldiers because the system is based on a very strict conscription where all young people are obliged to join the army," continues the researcher. However, this very harsh system generates an exodus massive and it is difficult to know today whether Eritrea is in a position to become involved in this war on a lasting basis. "
Twelve days after the start of the conflict, communications remain cut off and the situation on the ground remains confused.
If the army of Tigray seems to have so far resisted the assault of the central government, the opening of a new front in the north could be a turning point.
A meager hope points with the attempt at mediation initiated Monday, November 16, by Uganda.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said for his part that no talks would start until the authorities in Tigray were totally disarmed.
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