Lausanne (AFP)

Can the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games which are due to start on July 24 be postponed, even canceled or even be held behind closed doors? Who will make the decision and when?

The coronavirus pandemic which paralyzes the whole world and has led to the postponement of many other international sporting events, including Euro football, raises many questions. And even if the International Olympic Committee (IOC) refuses to discuss a postponement or a cancellation, the pressure mounts on the Lausanne-based body as the toll of the virus increases and that athletes call to adjourn the Olympic Games.

Q: Can the Tokyo 2020 Olympics be canceled?

Since the start of the modern Olympic Games (Athens in 1896), neither boycotts (in 1980 in Moscow and 1984 in Los Angeles), nor the SARS virus (in 2003) or zika (before the Olympic Games in Rio 2016) have had because of the Games.

Only the world wars led to the outright cancellation of the Olympic Games planned in 1916 in Berlin or in 1940, already in Japan, in Sapporo (winter) and Tokyo (summer). The same was true for the Olympic Games 1944 in Cortina d'Ampezzo (winter) and London (summer).

In theory, the IOC has the power to cancel the Olympic Games or to withdraw them from Tokyo. But its president, Thomas Bach, had assured at the beginning of March that "neither the word cancellation nor the word postponement were mentioned".

On Wednesday, a spokesman for the body said it was "not necessary to make radical decisions" and that "any speculation at this stage would be counterproductive".

Questioned Thursday by AFP, the IOC again assured that its position is the result of "daily" exchanges with the working group set up and which also brings together the Organizing Committee for the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, the City of Tokyo, the Japanese government and the World Health Organization (WHO).

"Our medical and scientific director, Richard Budgett, has contacts with the WHO several times a day and reports to those concerned, including the president," added a spokesperson.

Q: Who can decide to cancel the Games?

The IOC entrusts the Organizing Committee with the mission of organizing the Olympic Games and the Olympic charter stipulates that they must take place in the planned year (2020) under penalty of cancellation.

However, the session can decide to organize them in 2021. This requires 2/3 of the votes of the hundred IOC members who could vote from a distance.

The power to cancel the Olympic Games formally rests with the IOC. The "host city" contract provides that the IOC can withdraw the organization of the Olympic Games from the host city "if the safety of the participants is seriously threatened".

Any decision will be presented "as joint, but the national government in hand," said Jean-Loup Chappelet, professor at the Institute of Advanced Studies in Public Administration (IDHEAP) in Lausanne and specialist in the IOC.

But as in July 1938, when Japan had given up organizing the 1940 Olympic Games following the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War, the Japanese government could take the initiative to cancel the Games.

"In theory anything is possible, explains a source close to the IOC management, to AFP. It is difficult to organize the Olympic Games against the will or the government's ban."

Q: When should a decision be made?

The IOC does not express an opinion because it tirelessly repeats having confidence in the "success" of the event.

Only Canadian Dick Pound, Dean of the proceeding, spoke of the need for a deadline. "At some point, whether two months or a month upstream, someone will have to decide," he said in late February. But at that time, the virus mainly affected China, before colonizing the rest of the globe.

Q: Can the Tokyo Olympics be postponed?

After the postponement of Euro-2020 football, one of the biggest sporting events of the year and the postponement of a number of major competitions (Roland-Garros tennis tournament, Milan cycling races) Sanremo or Paris-Roubaix) and the standby of all the national championships (football, basketball ...), the Olympic Games constitute one of the last events not to have been removed from the calendar.

If the postponement has not been officially mentioned, "it is an option that would limit breakage for all (government, IOC, federations ...)", believes Mr. Chappelet.

For the academic, "the Japanese government will only take action to cancel the Games in an extreme case because Japan relies heavily on these Games for its image. At worst, it would perhaps postpone a year for day ".

For the Briton Patrick Nally, at the origin in the 80s of the IOC marketing program, a postponement "would be a simpler and more logical solution. The contractual partners would see their rights honored" and the athletes "would have the same time to to prepare".

But the international federations are divided. "For the + small + sports, that does not pose problems but a postponement would have serious consequences for major sports like basketball which would have to adapt their calendar and their national championships", estimates a large federation.

Q: Can the Olympic Games be held in camera?

In total, about 7.8 million tickets are to be sold for the Olympic Games and at the end of February Mr. Bach had indicated that more than 4.5 million tickets had been sold in Japan. 20 to 30% of tickets are therefore reserved for the international public. Depriving yourself of the public hardly seems possible.

The Japanese Ministry of Tourism had also counted in 2018 on 600,000 foreign spectators for the Tokyo Games, a significant economic windfall.

"Organizing the Olympics behind closed doors is an" impossible and unrealistic "option, Nally said.

© 2020 AFP