"If they threaten our interests, we will threaten their interests ... and take our threat seriously." This statement by the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Brigadier General Yadullah Gwani, appears accurate in describing what the relationship between Washington and Tehran has reached, so interests are what each side will try to defend Therefore, the American targeting of Iran is contained and the Iranian response will also be possible if not certain, "If the Americans want to exercise their prudence against us, then it is natural for the Iranian armed forces to do what is necessary to use all their capabilities and readiness in order to preserve Iranian national interests; Therefore, if they threaten our interests FSU We threaten their interests "(1).
Rapidly, voices are threatening and promising with unprecedented sanctions by Trump and his team, to be matched by a threat that is not without diplomacy by Hassan Rouhani, who warned against playing with the lion's tail, and said: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is one of Iran's cards in this confrontation (2), This was followed by Donald Trump's response to Twitter, which has become a verbal duel between political opponents and its godfathers, threatening Rouhani with "historic consequences." Soon, the commander of the Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, who is not known for the many statements, entered with an explicit and direct threat to Trump, saying: I am your opponent, and in a message that addresses the interests of many countries in the region and the world, especially Egypt and the Suez Canal, the Red Sea is no longer safe because of the American presence As Soleimani says (3). Soleimani describes Trump's speech as carrying "the literature of nightclubs ... and that he should consult the Pentagon and US intelligence on Iran's capabilities before making such threats." It is a threat that was confirmed by the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Major General Mohammad Ali Jaafari, saying: It is possible to implement what President Hassan Rouhani announced regarding oil in the event that conditions require it (4).
Whether Trump's tweets carry "the literature of nightclubs tonight" or the product of political salon discussions, they are in the category of a threat to interests that may lead to a confrontation that the countries of the region, especially the Gulf states, will not be far from and away from their scourges, as the magic formula that some countries hope for " Restricting Iran, "or directing a military strike against it, without paying exorbitant prices and a nonexistent characteristic, and it denies the geopolitical determinants regarding Iran as well as its neighbors, especially with talk that Washington is gathering an Arab" NATO "against Iran in an alliance temporarily called the" East Alliance ". Strategic Middle East "at a summit initially scheduled to be held in Wa Ntn on 12 and October 13 / October 2018 .. In this context, the paper examines the escalating threat of exchange between the United States and Iran, and discuss the challenges facing Iran in the confrontation with Washington administration.
Strait of Hormuz ... the energy crossing
More than one Iranian official confirms Iran's ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 40 percent of global oil production passes (5). With the possibility of insecurity in the Red Sea and the closing of the strait associated with the sanctions decision, depriving Iran of its oil exports actually entails a declaration of war. Such sanctions will deepen the Iranian economic crisis and impose living pressure that the Iranian government will not be able to deal with, and it is also a plan To bring down the regime and delegitimize it in front of its citizens, and this is what the guide of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reads in the American move: “American economic pressures on Iran seek to incite the Iranians against their government,” and that Washington “exerts economic pressure to make a difference between the nation and the system.”
And within the Iranian reading at several levels, preventing the export of oil poses a direct security threat to Tehran, which will force it to take an unprecedented step that could ignite a confrontation in an area that suffers from security problems. And when Iran threatens to do so, it addresses Trump's "businessman" accounts to make him calculate what losses such a move could leave the world economy, as his country's economy or that of European countries will not be immune from it. Although Iran does not have the right to close the Strait of Hormuz from the point of view of international law, but it is practically able to do it, especially since the Revolutionary Guards in recent years have conducted a simulation experiment to close the channel. This was not the first time that Iran had threatened to close the strait. Hashemi Rafsanjani had, in 1985, threatened to do so by saying: “Closing the Strait of Hormuz does not require possession of missiles, and Iran can close it with artillery. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the entire Gulf Under the arms of our planes, helicopters, ships, frigates and artillery. "
The Tasnim News website published a video titled: Iran's Oil Threat in Simple Language. He said that guaranteeing at least half of the world's oil exports depends on "Iran's satisfaction" (6). The video detailed by saying: 80% of world oil exports are secured by 155 countries: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Canada, Emirates, Iran, Kuwait, Nigeria, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Norway, Venezuela, USA, Mexico and Britain, and Qatar and Oman secure 2%. Among these countries there are five located in western Asia: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, the Emirates and Kuwait, and nearly half of the world's oil exports are secured from West Asia, where the oil needed by the European market and a large amount of what China, South Korea, India and Japan need.
And the work of transporting oil to these countries passes in three straits :
All oil tankers must cross through one of these three. In 2017, approximately 19 million barrels of oil per day crossed the Strait of Hormuz, about 5 million crossed through Bab al-Mandab, and 5.5 million barrels through the Suez Canal. 28.5 million barrels of oil per day.
Iran says that it is able to close the Strait of Hormuz and influence the level of security in the waterways of the whole region, as it has full security supervision over the Strait of Hormuz due to the geographical reality and its relations with Ansar Allah group in Yemen, and because of this relationship has a security impact on the Bab al-Mandab and the Suez Canal. After the attack on two large oil tankers by Ansar Allah al-Houthi, Saudi Arabia decided to suspend oil shipments that pass through the strategic Bab al-Mandab strait in the Red Sea. The suspension is unlikely to affect Saudi oil supplies to Asia, but it may increase shipping costs for Saudi ships heading to Europe and the United States due to increased distances (7).
Looking at the constructivist realism's propositions, the concern for security is inherent to states, and the threat, not force, is what causes states to seek (balance of forces and balance of threat), Stephen Walt uses the concept of balance in threat as an important element to interpret international relations, and believes that threat, not force, is what constitutes a weight Security concern of states in the international system. Countries seek to increase their military capabilities to achieve balance, not in force, but in threat (8). This is what Iran is trying to do today to make threatening its interests lead to threatening the interests of its opponents.
Iranian influence in the region
The escalation is mainly related to Iran's presence and influence in a number of regional files, especially in Syria and Yemen, and with the Trump-Putin summit, analyzes have spoken of Iran as a main topic in the talks, accompanied by talk about the possibility of a Russian-American deal that includes Iran's removal from Syria, but The question posed by the data of the Syrian arena is: Does Russia have the ability and tools to get Iran out, or is Iran capable - if it finds that the "Russian ally" will make a deal at its expense - to make its presence in Syria costly? And that, as it helped Russia enter the Syrian scene, it was able, due to its presence on the ground and years before the Russian intervention, to disrupt this presence.
Returning to the strategy that governed Iranian policy in Syria, its exit is not easy, and is not subject to a Russian decision or an American decision, unless the United States decides to wage a ground war against the Iranian presence in Syria, and this is unlikely. The Iranian presence in Syria has become a reality, and it is not possible to talk about a solution in Syria in which Iran is not involved. And Iran has some of the tools in Syria that cannot be ignored, and perhaps the most important of these tools is the armed militias, and made the survival of the Syrian regime dependent on its support for it. The difficulty in excluding Iran is reinforced by the presence of many players with conflicting interests on the Syrian scene. But also, the continued regional influence of Iran faces enormous difficulties, perhaps the most important of them: the Israeli targeting of its sites, as well as the “fragility of the alliance” with Russia, as well as the real crisis in the Iranian economy, which is likely to exacerbate with the upcoming US sanctions during the last quarter of 2018.
Iran .. What about the internal crisis?
Similar to the regional situation, the internal situation in Iran appears fragile in some aspects, as it faces serious challenges in various social, economic, political and cultural fields as well as security. Therefore, these challenges have what qualifies them to be serious crises facing the Iranian decision-maker. Perhaps talk of a close end to the house arrest file of the leaders of the Green Movement, Karoubi and Mousavi, and their wives, is aimed at strengthening the home front in the face of external targeting, as sources close to Mahdi Karoubi spoke of a decision to raise house arrest by a decision of the National Security Council (9).
And on the impact of the acute crisis that the Iranian riyal is suffering against the dollar, as the price of the dollar, according to specialized sites in the currency, on July 29, 2018, reached (11100) Iranian tomans compared to 9050 tomans a week before its date. Rouhani's economic team talks about mechanisms to encourage the private sector to complete tens of thousands of projects that have been disrupted, as the government will provide incentive benefits and tax exemptions to investors who agree to take over the management of about 76,000 government projects that have not been completed or have been suspended (10). Iranian Vice President, Yitzhak Jahangiri, did not deny the existence of a major crisis facing the Iranian currency, according to his statements before the Supreme Council for Economic Cooperation, and was reported by News Network. "The liquidity available over the past few months in the country went to housing, foreign exchange and gold coins, which raised prices and raised Citizens' fears. While the Rouhani government talks about urgent solutions, and upon the appointment of a new head of the central bank, Abdul Nasser Hamti, Iran's ambassador to China, to replace Wali Allah Saif, the Economic Committee of the Shura Council is active to impose accountability of President Hassan Rouhani (11) on the deteriorating economic situation.
According to the head of the parliament’s economic committee, Mohamed Reda Pour Ibrahimi, the committee submitted a report to the council’s presidency, to discuss Rouhani's interrogation. According to the laws of the Shura Council, if the number of signatories is more than 74, the list of accountability will be announced to the Presidency of the Council. A request to interrogate the Minister of Economy and Finance, Masoud Karbasian, is also being examined before the parliament’s Economic Committee (12). The request for interrogation includes 16 axes, including: "The Ministry's inefficiency in preparing and implementing economic and financial policies, its inefficiency in managing economic affairs, its lack of proper management and the ability to take the right decisions to regulate the economy, and its lack of interest in the resisting economy plan", which the guide of the Islamic Revolution had previously He put it up and emphasized it on more than one occasion. On the impact of the economic crisis, Iran appears burdened by corruption files, which are being opened one by one. A few days ago, the judiciary spokesman, Ghulam Hussein Muhsin Ijei, announced the arrest of 18 people in connection with charges of graft (13), of foreign exchange transactions and illegal import of luxury cars. Among the defendants, nicknamed "Sultan of Gold," the judiciary says: The Central Bank has provided protection for him over the past years, providing him with 159 million dollars and 51 million euros, to sell it for less than the market value.
The economic crisis is linked to drought and the water crisis, which has serious implications for agricultural wealth and threatens water and food security. According to estimates of the Iranian Meteorological Institute announced in February of the year 2018, 977% of Iran's area suffers from a drought problem. "This problem exists in all regions of the provinces of Khuzestan, Allam, Bushehr, Kahkilweyeh, Buur Ahmed, Faris, Sistan, Baluchistan and Southern Khorasan," ISNA reported, quoting the head of the Iranian Meteorological and Drought Management Center, Shahrakh Fateh. , North Khorasan, Razavi Khorasan, Markazi, and Zanjan "(14).
Between the external threat and the internal threats, Rouhani stands in the crosshairs of his opponents without much protection
From September 2017 to February 2018, the average precipitation in Iran is 47.1 mm. In the same period before 2017, the average was 91.16 mm. This means an apparent decrease in the rates. ”As for the five dams warehouses surrounding the capital, Tehran, which supply it with water, it currently contains 24 million cubic meters of water less than in 2017. Likewise, it is about 50 million less than the required rate that should be in warehouses, despite the heavy snow that fell in Tehran during the last winter. (15) It seems that the water drought that Iran suffers from is one of the factors contributing to the aggravation of the unemployment problem, Especially in the northwest, eastern and north-central regions, whose local economy depends on agriculture (16).
Between the external threat and the internal threats, Rouhani stands in the crosshairs of his opponents without much protection.
Conclusion
What is urgently proposed today is whether the two parties to the conflict (Iran and the United States of America) are determined to put verbal threats into practice, or whether political, diplomatic and economic solutions are on the horizon and able to offer solutions that avoid the region at exorbitant prices? By threatening and responding to the threat, Iran is trying to address the Trump businessman, making him count the losses and risks, but it is also counting on the unconventional behavior of the American president, and his apparent tendency to act in violation of global rules. Accordingly, the willingness to confront beyond the verbal threat is more on the table of Iranian decision-makers than ever before. And if Iran has accumulated experience in understanding American policy from the first Bush to the end of Obama's term, it needs new mechanisms in dealing with Trump and his team, who are moving with clear hostility towards the Islamic Republic.
Iran and the United States show hostile behavior toward each other, but this behavior may have two faces: The first : According to Sun Tzu’s strategic theory, the escalation of the threat of nations against each other actually reflects their desire to negotiate more, which is what someone who is called the Godfather of Iranian Relations predicts - The American is Hoshink Amir Ahmadi, who believes that negotiations may begin between the two parties within the next three or six months, and Trump has expressed his desire to drag the Iranians to the negotiating table to complete a new agreement. The Iranian scene was not without those calling for negotiations with Trump, although these voices were muted to those who refused to do so.
As for the second: He says with enmity and anger that has reached a degree that can only be dealt with through a physical confrontation. This may take on a military dimension, the consequences of which will be costly to all parties, which require initiatives to remove or mitigate it.