The Arab region and the world witnessed many milestones in 2019, including the isolation of the Sudanese President, Omar al-Bashir, the death of the Tunisian President, Baji Kaid Essebsi, the isolation of the Algerian President, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, and the revolt of two popular revolutions in Iraq and Lebanon, in addition to the recognition of the administration of the American President, Donald Trump, the legitimacy of the settlements, and its recognition of Israel's sovereignty of the Syrian Golan Heights. Other notable events include the dispute over the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the measures to isolate Trump, the yellow jacket demonstrations in France, and others in Hong Kong for several months now, the Turkish attack on northern Syria, and the holding of new elections in Britain that brought Boris Johnson, a pro-British exit From the European Union, for prime minister, and other events.

Man may have difficulty finding some positive events between endless reports of war, terrorist attacks, aircraft crashes, climate problems, floods and hurricanes, volcanic eruptions, and other horrific events.

Since these events greatly affect the reality and the future of the Arab region, we will try in this file, which runs through several episodes, to shed light on the most important of them, in order to document and benefit from the lessons.

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The home front cracked and exacerbated popular anger

Iran 2019 .. Protests .. Sanctions .. and internal and external crises

The year 2019 did not pass in Iran, the honorable passing of it, as it witnessed the exacerbation of many internal and external crises, which reached the brink of war with the United States, as confrontation with Washington intensified in many areas and locations around the world, especially in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and the Persian Gulf, while the front witnessed The Iranian interior is a clear crack on the impact of the economic crisis, which has exacerbated popular anger.

Despite the beginning of the year with the celebrations of the fortieth anniversary of the revolution in Iran, the beginning of the year also witnessed the imposition of new US sanctions against the head of the regime in Iran, the leader Ali Khamenei, and leaders of the Revolutionary Guards, and also targeted the oil, petrochemical and financial transactions sectors, in response to Tehran's lack of commitment The articles of the nuclear agreement with the six major countries (the Group of 5 + 1, namely: America, Russia, Britain, France, China and Germany), in a move aimed at pushing Tehran to return to the negotiating table on its nuclear file, as well as its interference and role in many countries of the region.

These new US sanctions have resulted in a decrease in Iranian oil exports from 1.5 million barrels per day in October 2018 to 750,000 barrels in April 2019, causing an economic crisis that affected stability in the country.

End of exceptions

With the beginning of last May, the United States, which withdrew from the nuclear agreement between Iran and the major countries in 2018 and tightened sanctions on Tehran, ended the exceptions that allowed eight countries, namely China, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey, to continue buying Iranian crude oil, while The European Union has recognized the inclusion of the Iranian Department of "Internal Security" on the terrorism list, against the backdrop of thwarted attacks on European soil.

No return to negotiations

The US sanctions on Iran did not result in any developments regarding the resumption of negotiations related to the nuclear agreement or Tehran's commitment to its terms. Rather, it announced its intention to resume uranium enrichment and increase it in the "Fordo" factory in violation of the terms of the agreement, which appeared to have occurred on more than one stage during the past year, apparently The American sanctions that the Trump administration adopted against Tehran paid off, besieged the Iranian regime financially, led to the draining of its resources or the reduction of its gains, while Tehran's financial obligations press the neck of the government of President Hassan Rouhani, and pushes it to take harsh measures against the economically worn out interior and with Yesha. Also in July, Iran entered a new crisis, but with the UK announcing the Revolutionary Guards' confiscation of a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, justifying the matter that the detained tanker “Stena Impero” did not abide by the navigation laws, in response to the detention of an Iranian ship in the Strait of Gibraltar, and ended The crisis by the mutual release of the two ships.

A local crisis

And Iran entered in the middle of last November, a local crisis, where the people denounced the leader Khamenei, in protests that witnessed at least 50 cities, after the government implemented an increase in gasoline prices that reached three times, after it was considered the cheapest in the world, which was explained by the Iranian government That it will help poor families in the country.

One of the most prominent features of these protests was that it affected the head of state, as the demonstrators chanted slogans to bring down the leader, calling for improving their living and economic conditions, and refusing to enter their country in the affairs of Arab countries, according to the Sky News website.

The suffering of the Allies

Externally, Iran's allies suffered many problems during 2019, as Lebanon witnessed massive demonstrations across the country, on October 17, and in particular, the unprecedented popular protests that swept the streets condemned Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, which is the strongest A faction in the country for a long time, after he caused an unusually popular discontent, so the protesters came out chanting anti-party slogans.

In Iraq, street demonstrations took place in protest against the deteriorating economic conditions of the country, the prevalence of administrative corruption and unemployment, and the demonstrations quickly condemned Iran’s interference and control of parts of the country and its corruption in the political life of Iraq, and many Iraqi cities witnessed the burning of pictures of the leader, Ali Khamenei, and the commander of the Qasim Corps Qassem Soleimani, and the protesters chanted anti-Iran slogans, before burning the Iranian consulate in Karbala.

Tehran lost yesterday, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, and the prominent leader of the Popular Mobilization militia, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and the official of the crowd's Relations Directorate, Muhammad al-Jabri, and the Vehicles Officer, Haider Ali, in a US bombing that targeted their convoy near Baghdad International Airport .

"Instaccess" is not enough to save "nuclear" and Iran's economy

Six European countries: Finland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden and Norway announced, in a collective statement, their accession to the mechanism of supporting trade exchange (INSTEX) alongside the founding countries of this mechanism, namely France, Britain, and Germany, in a move aimed at achieving several goals, the most important of them Saving the "nuclear agreement" and preserving its national security and the security of its allies in the region, along with the desire to refuse to comply and show independence from the policies of the American administration.

In their joint statement after joining Instex mechanism, the six countries affirmed their support for the troika countries in their efforts to reassure Iran of the European Union’s commitment to the “nuclear agreement” and facilitate trade between Europe and Iran.

And the mechanism "Instaccess", which means the tool to support commercial activities, was launched by the European Troika countries (France, Britain and Germany) following the withdrawal of the administration of US President Donald Trump from the "nuclear agreement" concluded with Iran in 2015. It is worth noting that this mechanism is planned to It operates outside the global financial system as a barter, so European companies that use the mechanism avoid the possibility of falling into US sanctions.

For its part, Iran welcomed the "Instaccess" mechanism, and despite this welcome, however, officials in Tehran expressed their frustration over the slow European response.

As for the American position, it was not very clear from this agreement, as Washington did not formally declare against the accession of the six European countries and its support for the Instex mechanism.

There are three possibilities in front of this mechanism, but none of them can save the much-suffering Iranian economy, or the nuclear agreement. These possibilities range from activating them to include only the main sectors that are not subject to American sanctions, namely the food and drug sectors, or continuing to calm with Iran without The mechanism is activated, and the third possibility involves formal joining without activating the mechanism, especially in light of the slow European procedures.

Trump halted an American military strike

On June 21, US President Donald Trump confirmed reports that the United States was going to launch a military strike against Iran, after it shot down an American drone, but it was canceled.

"The Iranians shot down a drone flying in international waters," Trump said, via his Twitter account. We were ready and ready to take revenge last night in three different locations, and when I asked: How many will die? The answer was from 150 people, sir. ”

He added: "10 minutes before the strike was stopping it," referring to the reason that the strikes, and the resulting Iranian deaths, "are not commensurate with the shooting down of a plane without anyone on board." He continued, saying: "I am not in a hurry, our army is rebuilt, new, ready to go, and it is by far the best in the world."

Trump stressed that his country's sanctions against Iran were "harsh and more was added last night." He said: "Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons, not against the United States, and not against the world!"

And with the first day at the beginning of this year, Trump stressed that he did not expect war with Iran.

1500 protesters were killed

Reuters reported, in a report, that "about 1500 people were killed during the November protests in Iran," and wrote, quoting three sources close to the Iranian guide, Ali Khamenei, that he ordered government and security officials to "do whatever is necessary." On the other hand, the head of the Communication and Information Center of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Ali Reza Zarifian, denied what was published by Reuters about the number of victims of the protests. Parliamentarian Ghulam Ali Jaafarzadeh Ayman Abadi also confirmed, saying: "We got statistics on the number of dead, but we are not allowed to announce it."

According to the report, “In less than two weeks of unrest in Iran that started on November 15, about 1,500 people were killed. The death toll includes at least 17 juveniles, about 400 women, as well as some members of the security forces, ”explaining that the numbers provided to them came on the basis of“ information gathered from the security forces, mourning ceremonies, hospitals, and forensic medicine. ”