(International Observer) The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been postponed for two years. Will there be a turning point in 2024?
China News Service, Beijing, February 23: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been delayed for two years. Will there be a turning point in 2024?
China News Service reporter Shang Yong
February 24 this year will mark the second anniversary of the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine.
The two-year conflict has resulted in heavy casualties on both sides, and has also had an all-round impact on the politics, economy, and security of Europe and the world.
The elusive peace has yet to come. Will there be a critical turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict this year?
In this regard, Ding Xiaoxing, director of the Eurasian Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said that in 2024, multiple international elections may determine the direction of the conflict.
Even if the conflict ends, the Ukrainian issue and European security issues will be difficult to resolve, and the confrontation between Russia and the West will continue for a long time.
The war between Russia and Ukraine is stalemate, with both sides insisting on their own opinions
The Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue throughout 2023.
In June of that year, the Ukrainian army launched a counterattack, but the counterattack did not meet expectations.
Russian media said that as of the end of last year, the Ukrainian army had suffered nearly 160,000 casualties since the counterattack.
Ding Xiaoxing said that the Ukrainian army’s initial plan was to concentrate its elite troops in the direction of Zaporozhye, assault the coast of the Sea of Azov as soon as possible, split the Ukrainian battlefield in two, form a siege of Crimea, and force Russia to accept Conditions for ceasefire negotiations that are favorable to Ukraine.
"It was originally planned to break through to the coast of the Sea of Azov at the end of last year, but the Ukrainian army advanced less than 20 kilometers in half a year. The Russian army was fully prepared for the Ukrainian counterattack, established three lines of defense, laid out a large number of minefields and anti-tank trenches, and the Ukrainian army did not Air superiority. These greatly increase the difficulty of counterattack and cause excessive casualties to the Ukrainian army," Ding Xiaoxing said.
Recently, the main battlefield between Russia and Ukraine is located in the eastern part of Ukraine, where the economy is relatively developed.
The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that it repelled multiple attacks by the Ukrainian army in Donetsk, Kherson and other directions.
Under the continued fierce attack by the Russian army, the Ukrainian army withdrew its troops from the important town of Avdeyevka in Donetsk on the 17th. This area is known as an important defense hub for the Ukrainian army.
Western media said that "the Battle of Avdeyevka has become the bloodiest battle after the Battle of Bakhmut."
Reuters stated that this is the biggest victory achieved by the Russian army since the failure of Ukraine’s counterattack last year, and it is undoubtedly a blow to Ukraine.
At the same time, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Serski said that the frontline situation is difficult and the Ukrainian army has shifted from offense to defense.
Recent changes in senior personnel of the Ukrainian army have worried the West. Ukrainian media said that "the personnel changes may bring risks to Ukraine's internal affairs and the progress of the war."
However, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has emphasized on different occasions in recent days that Ukraine will not be defeated and will surely regain all its lost ground.
Russian officials at different levels stated on different occasions that Russia is unswervingly achieving the goals of the special military operation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a recent interview that what happens in Ukraine is a major matter related to Russia's "survival" and it may determine the fate of the country.
Recruitment posters on the streets of St. Petersburg, Russia, in October 2023.
Photo by China News Service reporter Shang Yong
Global security deteriorates or there may be more instability
The two-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine has impacted and challenged the globalization process and the security situation, and has had a major impact on the international situation.
Ding Xiaoxing said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has challenged the US-led international order formed after the Cold War, and the international order has entered a period of transition from old to new, characterized by turmoil and disorder.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and more areas may experience turmoil.
"This conflict has challenged the norms of international relations that maintain confrontation between major powers." Cui Hongjian, a professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University's Institute for Advanced Studies in Regional and Global Governance, said that the global security situation has deteriorated and the arms race among countries has intensified.
The United States and Europe increased military production, and Germany and Japan changed their post-World War II policies and increased military spending.
Ding Xiaoxing pointed out, "Military means are increasingly becoming a means of resolving disputes. Israel retaliated against Hamas, and Azerbaijan used military means to resolve the 30-year-old Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Global strategic stability was undermined, and Russia withdrew its support from the Comprehensive Plan of Action ratification of the Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, the risk of nuclear war increases."
Conflict has also set back the globalization process.
Ding Xiaoxing said that the United States and the West have launched nearly 19,000 sanctions against Russia, causing economic decoupling and breakdown of energy relations between Russia and Western countries.
The election conflict between Russia, the United States and the European Union may take a turn
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported earlier this year that since the conflict broke out, "Western aid to Ukraine has exceeded US$200 billion."
Many Western countries have experienced "fatigue syndrome" and have questioned the effectiveness of aid to Ukraine. Most Western media have turned to pessimism, believing that it is impossible for Ukraine to regain its lost territory and that aid is a "bottomless pit."
Western public opinion pointed out that the fall of Avdeyevka by the Ukrainian army was due to the delay in military aid from Western countries.
At present, Ukraine's prospects for joining the EU and NATO are still unclear, but Zelensky is running around to gain support from the West.
He recently visited France and Germany, signed bilateral security agreements with the two countries, and delivered a speech at the Munich Security Conference.
His goal is clear: get more heavy weapons and ammunition as quickly as possible.
Ding Xiaoxing said that despite the unfavorable counterattack situation, Ukraine is still determined to continue fighting; although Western aid to Ukraine has entered a period of fatigue and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has distracted its energy, it will still provide various types of assistance to Ukraine.
The European Union passed 50 billion euros in aid to Ukraine on February 1; the Biden administration is also working hard to bridge the differences between the two parties in the United States and is pushing for the passage of a new aid bill to Ukraine; the United States and Ukraine have reached an agreement to increase Ukraine’s local weapons production capabilities; the Ministry of National Defense of Ukraine It was revealed that "Western F-16 fighter jets aided by Ukraine may be put into use this spring."
Ding Xiaoxing said that Russia, the United States, and the European Union will hold elections this year, and multiple elections may determine the direction of the conflict.
Russia is likely to increase its troop projections to Ukraine after the election, and the United States cannot allow Ukraine to lose before the election.
Russia and Ukraine may regard this year as the year of "decisive battle", and the war may become more intense.
Cui Hongjian said that the West's aid to Ukraine has increased confrontation, but it is not enough to change the battlefield pattern.
What determines the direction of the conflict this year is more the political factors after the elections in the United States and Russia. The conflict may usher in a critical turning point this year.
(over)