"Dangerous game": what consequences can the assassination of General Suleymani

The assassination of Kassem Suleimani, General of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), as a result of an American strike in Iraq, excited the whole world. According to the Kremlin’s press service, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron expressed their concern over the death of Suleimani during a telephone conversation.

According to Maria Zakharova, spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, “except for the escalation of tension in the region, which will certainly hit millions of people, this will lead to nothing.” Earlier, the Russian diplomatic mission called the actions of the United States "an adventurous step."

The Russian Defense Ministry, in turn, praised Suleymani’s achievements in the fight against international terrorism and noted that "the short-sighted US steps, expressed in the assassination of General Kassem Suleymani, lead to a sharp escalation of the military-political situation in the Middle East region."

The Acting Prime Minister of Iraq, Adel Abd al-Mahdi, said that he sees US actions as an act of aggression against his country.

The Lebanese Foreign Ministry also considers the American operation a violation of Iraq's sovereignty and which leads to a dangerous escalation of tension. The Syrian Foreign Ministry also issued a strong condemnation of American aggression.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry expressed concern about the escalation of tension in the region, which, according to the Turkish Foreign Ministry, will lead to the operation to destroy Suleymani.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said it was against the use of force in international relations and called on all parties to restraint. The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, called on the parties to the conflict to break the vicious circle of “acts of violence, provocation and retaliation.”

In turn, the diplomatic missions of Great Britain and France in their statements noted that their priority is to maintain stability in the Middle East. At the same time, the head of the British Foreign Ministry, Dominic Raab, announced the "threat of aggression" from Iran.

At the same time, Ulrike Demmer, deputy spokesman for the FRG government, said the killing was a reaction to alleged Iranian provocations. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in turn, supported US actions to destroy Suleimani, saying that US President Donald Trump "deserves all praise for quick, decisive and powerful action."

The global commodity market immediately reacted to the elimination of the high-ranking Iranian military - against the background of reports of the death of the Iranian military leader, oil quotes immediately jumped.

Recall, on the eve of the Pentagon confirmed the information about the destruction of the head of the Kudes special forces of the IRGC General Kassem Suleimani, calling the killing of a foreign military man "decisive defensive measures." As the US Department of Defense informed, President Donald Trump personally gave the order to liquidate it.

According to the Americans, Suleymani posed a threat to American diplomats and the military, and was allegedly involved in the deaths of “hundreds of American and coalition troops.” Along with Suleymani, one of the commanders of the Iraqi Shiite militia Al-Hashd al-Shaabi died Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

In Iran, the news of the death of Kassem Suleimani was received with anger. Tens of thousands of people across the country took to mass protests against US actions. The supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, promised to brutally take revenge on the murderers of Suleimani. In a similar vein, other representatives of the top leadership of Iran spoke out.

According to Lebanese television channel Al Manar, which is close to the Hezbollah movement, at an extraordinary meeting of the Iranian National High Security Council today, it was decided to answer the US "harshly" and "painfully."

It is worth noting that General Suleymani was respected not only by representatives of the Iranian authorities, but also among ordinary citizens of the country. It was he who coordinated the actions of Iran in the fight against ISIS * terrorists in Iraq and Syria.

Preparation for exacerbation

The US operation against a high-ranking Iranian military took place amid yet another aggravation of relations between Washington and Tehran. At the end of last year, the Pentagon launched airstrikes on the positions of the Shiite Kataib Hezbollah movement in Syria and Iraq, after which Shiite demonstrators in Baghdad attempted to storm the US embassy. US President Donald Trump said that Iran is behind this action. After that, the Pentagon announced the transfer of 750 marines to Iraq.

However, immediately after it became known about the death of General Suleymani, the US Embassy in Baghdad called on all citizens of his country to immediately leave Iraq.

On the same day, an influential Shiite leader, Muktad al-Sadr, announced that he was reviving the Mahdi Army, a formation that fought against the American occupiers in Iraq in 2004.

According to Lebanese television channel Al Manar, Iraq’s Hezbollah said the United States, Israel and the “evil kingdoms,” which most likely meant the Middle Eastern monarchies, would “pay a high price” for the murder of the head of the IRGC.

In turn, the leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, said that "the responsibility and task of all Mujahideen of the Resistance around the world" is to "ensure fair punishment" for the Suleimani murderers.

Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Palestinian People’s Liberation Front have condemned the United States, saying they plan to continue the fight against Israel.

In the United States, representatives of the opposition Democratic Party accused Donald Trump of escalating tensions in the region. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, presidential candidates Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, as well as other prominent Democrats, said the White House is putting the United States on the brink of a new armed conflict. Their indignation was caused by the fact that Trump did not receive permission to use military force from Congress.

In turn, the opponents of Iran celebrated the victory. So, Trump's former national security adviser, John Bolton, expressed the hope that the assassination of Suleymani “will be the first step towards a regime change in Tehran.”

"Dangerous game"

The assassination of Kassem Suleimani “looks particularly defiant,” said Valery Korovin, director of the Center for Geopolitical Expertise in an interview with RT. According to a political scientist, the United States "dropped the mask of fighters for the rule of law, human rights and democracy."

According to the expert, it was the United States, and not Iran, that initiated the escalation of tension in relations between the two countries. First, Washington pulled out of a nuclear deal with Iran, then last spring, accusing Tehran of threats to the US contingent in the Middle East, strengthened its group in the Persian Gulf. And in November 2019, protests supported by the United States took place in Iran.

Destroying Kassem Suleimani, the United States, according to Korovin, created a serious tactical problem for Iran.

"Suleimani led a network of Shiite militias, which, along with the Russian air forces, were the most effective force in the fight against terrorism in the region."

In addition, he said, Washington can hope that the removal of the popular and effective commander will strengthen the position of that part of the elites in domestic politics that could make US concessions.

In turn, corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences Sergey Sudakov noted that the elimination of the key Iranian military may be caused by the desire of President Trump to demonstrate his rigidity on the eve of the upcoming presidential election.

“He decided to prove to everyone that he is a tough president. This is a very dangerous game. He received certain votes, but, on the other hand, going up to the lion and chopping off his tail brush doesn’t mean tearing out his jaw, ”Sudakov said in an interview with RT.

Escalation prospects

The American president himself, after reporting the death of Suleymani, issued a warning to Tehran about military operations.

“Iran has not won a single victory in the war, but not a single defeat in the negotiations!” Trump wrote on Twitter.

Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!

At the same time, he said that the victim was allegedly responsible for the deaths of "millions" of people.

In turn, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced the US commitment to “de-escalate” tensions. At the same time, he said, the US is “ready to respond” to Iran, if necessary.

• US military in the Middle East
• Reuters
• © Marius Bosch

According to Korovin, neither Tehran nor Washington is ready for a large-scale war. At the same time, the US’s aggressive actions will now set the Muslims of the Middle East against Americans, not only Shiites, but also Sunnis, the expert said.

However, political analyst Karine Gevorgyan said in a conversation with RT that, taking into account the specifics of the Iranian mentality, Tehran’s response is unlikely to be “hysterical.” At the same time, the expert predicts that, as a result, US actions will lead to "a strengthening of the Shiite component in Iraq itself and to the exodus of Americans from this country."

According to Sudakov, opponents of Trump in the US state apparatus may be tempted to use the current situation in order to remove the president.

“Trump is playing a bad game. He blindly believes his special services. This is a big presumption. At some point, intelligence agencies can set him up. For example, they may miss a terrorist attack in order to destroy his presidential career, the expert believes. “Then everything will be remembered to him that in faraway Iraq, on his orders, an Iranian senior military man was killed. And then the whole Middle East will blaze, and you can put an end to Trump’s election campaign. ”

* “Islamic State” (ISIS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.