The world's 20 largest economies are meeting on Friday, June 28 and Saturday, June 29 in Osaka, Japan. On the menu of this G20: environment and climate, the Iranian issue and oil, central bank rates and trade tensions between Beijing and Washington.

Trade relations between China and the United States

Trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington are expected to dominate some of the discussions. Deadlocked last month, Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will try to restart the dialogue, including in a bilateral meeting scheduled for Saturday at 11:30 am local time (2:30 GMT).

South China Morning Post, Hong Kong's English-language daily, reported on Thursday (June 27th) that the world's first two world economic powers, which have been in conflict for nearly a year, had entered into a temporary truce.

Before his departure for Japan, Donald Trump blew the hot and cold, deeming it "absolutely possible" to reach an agreement with Xi Jinping while saying he was ready, in case of failure, to impose new customs duties on almost all Chinese products not yet taxed. In Beijing, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce on Thursday called for the cancellation without delay of US sanctions against the Chinese group of telecommunications equipment Huawei.

Growth and bank rates

In terms of trade tensions, the uncertainties weighing on growth, including central bank rates, are also likely to stimulate debate.

At its monetary policy meeting on June 18 and 19, the Federal Reserve set the stage for possible rate cuts by the end of the year. This prospect, which weakens the dollar, could force the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan to look for ways to avoid a sharp appreciation of the euro and the yen in order to protect their highly export-dependent economies.

Summit host, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, hopes the summit's closing statement will also insist on the need to preserve free trade, but he could face the refusal of Donald Trump, who forced last year the G20 to abandon its long-standing reference to the fight against protectionism.

Climate and environment, hot issues

Another bone of contention between the 20 nations: climate change. US negotiators oppose Europeans' strong commitment to the fight against global warming, which Donald Trump sees as a "hoax".

The latest version of the declaration's statements on climate calls the Paris Climate Agreement "irreversible", something a previous version avoided mentioning under pressure from the United States, says two sources interviewed by the United States. Reuters.

Considered historic, the Paris Agreement, which sets the framework of political, economic and financial commitments to contain the increase in the average temperature of the planet "well below 2 ° C" in 2100, with the objective to be as close as possible to 1.5 ° C, is weakened since Donald Trump decided to withdraw the United States.

Wednesday, Emmanuel Macron urged all members to support the 2015 Paris Agreement and accelerate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions while threatening to refuse to sign a final communiqué too timid on this point.

The G20 could also finally adopt a new framework to reduce plastic pollution in the oceans on a voluntary basis. But it seems unlikely that the leaders of the 20 most advanced economies will commit to specific goals.

The ten member countries of Asean (Association of South-East Asian Countries) showed the way last Saturday by adopting after a summit in Bangkok a joint declaration to fight against waste at sea.

Oil and Iran

Even if Iran is not a member of the G20, the Islamic Republic will be in everyone's head because of the war of words against Donald Trump and the strong tensions between the two countries, revived by the destruction in flight of an American drone by Tehran a week ago near the Strait of Hormuz.

This crisis, which caused a rise in crude prices, comes just days from a ministerial meeting of OPEC on 1 July, extended the following day to non-OPEC allies, including Russia, during which members of the OPEC + should decide whether to extend production cuts to support prices.

Whatever may be said about Iran, Saudi Arabia's great regional rival, who is now one of the smallest producers in the cartel because of Washington's sanctions, talks are likely to boil down to a tete-a-tete between Riyadh and Moscow, which together produce more than 40% of the oil OPEP +. The subject should be on the agenda of the planned talks on the sidelines of the G20 between Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman.

With Reuters