China News Service, Shanghai, March 1 (Reporter Li Jiajia) Global real estate services and investment company CBRE released the "2024 China Real Estate Market Outlook" report on the 1st, pointing out that in the field of commercial real estate, China's real estate market leasing demand There will be varying degrees of recovery. At the same time, the improvement of investor sentiment and the recovery of the rental market will jointly promote the increase in the activity of bulk property transactions.
Research institutions look forward to 2024. China's office leasing demand is expected to bottom out and rebound, and the national office market's net absorption is expected to reach 4 million square meters, which is equivalent to 2019.
Leasing demand in the financial industry mainly comes from non-bank institutions such as securities and insurance. The artificial intelligence field in the technology and Internet industry will continue to grow rapidly.
Under the wave of industrial upgrading, high-tech manufacturing companies' strong demand for R&D, design, marketing services and management support positions is becoming a new potential for office leasing.
CBRE predicts that leasing activity in China's first-tier cities and second-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi'an and other high-tech industries will remain leading in 2024.
With the further recovery of China's domestic consumption and the growth of supply chain logistics in manufacturing, retail and catering industries, these will lay a good economic and industry foundation for the continued activity of high-standard warehousing leasing. The expansion demand of cross-border e-commerce is still expected to Stay strong in 2024.
CBRE believes that in 2024, the net absorption of high-standard warehouses in major cities in China is expected to reach about 7.5 million square meters, a slight year-on-year increase.
Among them, the vacancy rates in Hangzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao, and Chongqing are expected to return to less than 10% in the next three years, while the Guangzhou-Shenzhen metropolitan area, Wuxi, and Chengdu will continue to face supply shortages.
In the retail property market, the report believes that with the further improvement of residents' consumer confidence, the leasing demand for professional sports and outdoor brands will maintain strong growth in 2024. At the same time, coffee, tea and specialty food will also continue to actively expand stores.
The report also pointed out that from 2025 to 2026, as the new supply of retail properties across the country has declined, the vacancy rate in the retail property market will decrease year by year.
In addition, looking forward to 2024, although the bulk property market will face multiple challenges and cross-border investors remain cautious about Chinese commercial real estate, the domestic low interest rate environment and the positive investment sentiment of domestic insurance and industrial capital are expected to provide a positive boost to the bulk transaction market. Have a positive impact.
CBRE predicts that China’s large-scale property transaction volume will increase slightly in 2024.
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