China News Service, March 1 (China News reporter Zuo Yukun) Recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "Notice on Preparing Housing Development Plans and Annual Plans", requiring all localities to scientifically prepare housing plans for 2024 and 2025. Develop annual plans and plan in advance the housing development plan for 2026-2030.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development requires that housing needs be determined based on population changes, land supply should be scientifically arranged based on housing needs, and financial resources should be guided to allocate, so as to determine housing by people, land by housing, and money by housing, promote a balanced supply and demand in the real estate market, have a reasonable structure, and prevent The market goes up and down.
Data map: Aerial photography of real estate.
Photo by Chen Guanyan
How to implement the "fundamental solution"?
"Requiring localities to prepare two-year housing development plans was relatively rare in the past. The 'Five-Year Housing Development Plan' proposed this time is a special plan that focuses more on housing, emphasizing the relationship with land spatial planning, land use annual The organic connection of the plans is also somewhat different from the real estate-related five-year plans previously released by various localities that are in conjunction with the five-year plans for national economic and social development, urban master plans, etc.," said Feng Bo, deputy director of the Chengdu Urban Construction and Development Research Institute.
In this relatively special deployment, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized that housing development planning and annual plans are important starting points for establishing a linkage mechanism among the elements of "people, housing, land, and money".
Specifically, the annual housing development plan should clarify the annual supply scale, structure and location of various types of housing and land, and calculate the reasonable financing needs of real estate projects; the "Five-Year Plan for Housing Development" requires each city to comprehensively consider local economic and social development and population changes. , industrial layout, housing supply and demand, etc., and plan in advance based on the potential supply situation such as existing housing and existing land.
This is not the first time the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has mentioned this mechanism.
In November 2023, Ni Hong, Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said: “Building a new model of real estate development is the fundamental strategy to solve real estate development problems and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.”
As for the idea of building a new development model, in terms of institutional mechanisms, it is mentioned to "establish a new mechanism for the linkage of 'people, housing, land, and money' elements", which is also considered to be the core content of the new model.
Now this mechanism has been emphasized again and is linked to the housing development plan and annual plan in the next few years through the positioning of the "handle". Chen Wenjing, market research director of the Zhongzhi Research Institute, believes that various localities will further understand the total local housing demand based on this. and structure, short-term, medium- and long-term supply and demand relationships in the real estate market, etc., which play a positive role in promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
"Housing development plans and annual plans can help guide the flow of financial resources, land resources, etc. to places where they are more needed, and improve resource utilization efficiency." Chen Wenjing said that in the future, cities with large populations and continuous increase in population, and real estate markets in short supply will build more More new houses will be built to meet the housing needs of residents, and these cities will also receive more land, finance and other resources.
Data map.
Photo by Yang Bo
How to “prevent market ups and downs”?
In this notice, "preventing market ups and downs" has once again attracted attention.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development pointed out that it is necessary to realize that people determine housing, housing determines land, and housing determines money, and promotes a balanced supply and demand in the real estate market and a reasonable structure, so as to better stabilize the market.
This is closely related to the current significant changes in the supply and demand relationship in my country's real estate market.
"The past shortage of supply in many places has been alleviated, and residents' basic housing needs have been met. However, structural problems in housing are still prominent, and the real estate market in some cities is obviously oversupplied." Chen Wenjing said.
According to China Index data, the sales clearance period for new homes in cities such as Fuzhou and Tianjin exceeds 20 months, and the market is under pressure to sell out. In some cities, there is still a shortage of inventory, and the saleable area of new homes in Shanghai, Hangzhou and other places has been cleared. The cycle is less than 10 months for a long time.
"It may be difficult to sell with the original supply model, but at the same time there is still a large amount of unmet demand, and new demands (such as new citizens) are personalized." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Institute of Urban Planning, believes, Under such a new situation, it is particularly important to follow the linkage of "people, housing, land, and money" elements.
The achievement of flow must be based on faith.
Zhang Bo, president of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, told Sino-Singapore Finance reporters that on the one hand, as the economy continues to stabilize and improve, the market environment needs to be continuously optimized. On the other hand, long-term policies must be released based on the property market environment to allow People's long-term expectations for the property market remain stable, making houses a real stable asset for people.
Many properties.
Photo by Zhang Yichen
It is expected that the construction of affordable housing will accelerate significantly
"It is necessary to incorporate the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and the waiting time for housing security into target management." From this requirement of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, we can see that in addition to stabilizing the market, the construction of affordable housing is another major issue in the current real estate field. Task.
Specifically, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized that cities should accurately judge housing needs based on local actual conditions, improve the "guarantee + market" housing supply system, and use the government as the main guarantee for the rigid housing needs of working-income groups, and the market as the main source to meet the needs of residents. Diversify the demand for improved housing and scientifically prepare annual housing development plans for 2024 and 2025.
"To solve the urgent needs, the government should increase the construction of affordable housing, so that affordable housing becomes the main channel of choice for every urban resident's first home, and improved housing is the main channel for the supply of commercial housing." Li Yujia said that this is mainly for the current situation. The purchasing power of young people and new citizens is weak, and the traditional commercial housing supply model cannot match demand, so the mismatch between supply and demand must be corrected.
The industry expects that the construction of affordable housing will accelerate significantly in the next few years.
According to Zhongzhi’s monitoring, many places have announced the target for raising rent-guaranteed housing in 2024. Nanning, Fuzhou, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other cities have proposed the planned construction volume of 2024 or the first batch of allotment-type affordable housing. Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Fuzhou plan to build 10,000 remaining sets.
In the longer-term timeline, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized that housing development planning should be based on local realities and clarify housing development goals, key tasks, and policy measures.
The construction of affordable housing should be regarded as an important part of housing development planning, and the development goals of affordable housing should be scientifically determined.
According to the requirements, the number of affordable housing units to be supplied and the unit type structure must be further clarified.
It is necessary to incorporate the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and the waiting time for housing security into target management.
Li Yujia believes that this means building according to demand at the project level, that is, we must first understand the characteristics of market demand, such as location, unit type, supporting facilities, etc., and then start planning for land supply, construction and sales, so that the houses provided can meet Only the market demand can be sold, which is essentially the refinement and precision of supply to achieve a match between supply and demand.
Chen Wenjing also mentioned that in the future, affordable housing may be mainly raised, supplemented by new construction, and built on demand. For cities with a large inventory of commercial housing, rebuilding or acquiring existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing may be an important method.
"From the perspective of stability, more policies will be effectively promoted in the short term. On the one hand, we will pay attention to people's livelihood, and policies such as 'guaranteeing the delivery of housing' and reducing existing housing loans will be implemented to enhance residents' sense of happiness and gain; on the other hand, we will We will increase efforts to stimulate both supply and demand, focusing on implementing the policy of 'equal treatment to meet the financing needs of real estate companies of different ownerships' and accelerating the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities to solve the problem of developers' difficulty in obtaining loans and improving the confidence of home buyers," Zhang Bo said.
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