The International Monetary Fund raises its global and Chinese economic growth forecasts for 2024
China remains the world’s largest growth engine
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently raised its growth forecast for China's economy and emerging Asian economies in 2024. At the same time, based on the resilient growth of major economies such as China, the International Monetary Fund raised its global economic growth forecast for this year by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%. The International Monetary Fund pointed out that the upward revision of China's economic growth forecast reflects the continuation of China's economy's higher-than-expected growth momentum last year and the driving role of the Chinese government's introduction of relevant policies.
In 2023, China's GDP will exceed 126 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2% over the previous year. China will still be the world's largest growth engine. Since the beginning of this year, high-quality development has been steadily promoted. In January 2024, the level of economic prosperity has rebounded, releasing a positive signal for economic performance at the beginning of the year.
“The competitive advantage of China’s economy still exists”
As the core institution of the international monetary and financial system, the International Monetary Fund is the main platform for countries to coordinate macroeconomic policies.
The International Monetary Fund stated in its latest "World Economic Outlook Report" that global economic growth is likely to see a further upward trend in 2024. Several major factors include the acceleration of China's economic recovery.
Optimistic expectations for China's economic growth have also boosted confidence in regional economic growth. The International Monetary Fund predicts that as China's economic growth may exceed expectations, the overall economic growth rate of emerging economies in Asia is expected to reach 5.2% this year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the forecast in October last year.
Not only the International Monetary Fund, but also international financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and UBS have recently released reports stating that China's consumer and service industries will continue the post-epidemic recovery trend in 2024. The British Economist Intelligence Unit and others predict that China's economic fundamentals will be more solid in 2024. Institutions such as the Center for Strategic and International Studies in the United States believe that China’s exports of electric vehicle batteries, electronic products, minerals, etc. are strong, and many industries have leading global competitiveness.
The latest survey report released by the American Chamber of Commerce in China shows that 50% of the American companies surveyed ranked China as the first or top three investment destinations in the world. A survey by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China shows that 59% of the companies surveyed regard China as one of the three main investment destinations. The business confidence survey report of the German Chamber of Commerce in China shows that 91% of the German companies surveyed stated that they will continue to take root in the Chinese market, and more than half of the surveyed German companies plan to increase investment in China in the next two years.
More international institutions and companies are taking concrete actions to express their long-term optimism about the Chinese market.
Recently, heads of international institutions and multinational companies have visited China, optimistic about the Chinese market and deepening pragmatic cooperation.
Procter & Gamble CEO Jon Moller recently said that he spent six days in China in early January, meeting with Chinese employees and government officials, and visiting residents' homes to learn about purchasing habits. "China's long-term opportunities remain intact," he said.
The world is increasingly feeling the strong pulse of China's high-quality economic development.
At the Xiaomo International Logistics Port in Shenzhen Port, the BYD "Pioneer 1" ro-ro ship set sail, carrying more than 5,000 Chinese new energy vehicles, heading to its destinations, the Port of Wülissingen in the Netherlands and the Port of Bremerhaven in Germany.
In 2023, China will become the world's largest automobile exporter for the first time. Data shows that one out of every three cars exported by China is an electric passenger vehicle. Last year, China's exports of "three new products" represented by new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products exceeded the one trillion yuan mark, and its international share was far ahead. South Korea's "Money Today" reported that cutting-edge products have begun to become representatives of "Made in China."
From the Alashankou Port in Xinjiang, rows of China-Europe freight trains departed, carrying daily necessities, automobiles and spare parts, machinery and equipment and other goods from all over China, bound for Europe.
In 2023, China-Europe freight trains will operate 17,000 trains and send 1.9 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 6% and 18% respectively. This "golden channel" for international logistics land transportation has smoothed the logistics between China and 217 cities in 25 European countries, injecting continuous vitality into the economic and trade exchanges between the two sides.
China is the only country that has all industrial categories in the United Nations Industrial Classification. "Chinese enterprises have significant advantages in innovation capabilities, iteration speed, manufacturing efficiency, etc., behind which is China's complete industrial chain and ultra-large-scale market." Tang Zhimin, director of the China-ASEAN Research Center at Thailand's Chia Tai School of Management, told reporters, "The development of China's economy Competitive advantages still exist and will continue to influence the trends of China and the world economy."
China is a major trading partner of more than 140 countries and regions. The latest official statistics from South Korea show that China will become South Korea’s largest overseas direct shopping destination for the first time in 2023. Bolger Brende, President of the World Economic Forum, said that China is shifting from growth based on investment and infrastructure to growth based on innovation, and plays a pivotal role in the global economy and global trade.
Sonali Jain-Chandra, head of the International Monetary Fund delegation to China for the Article IV consultation report, told reporters that the relevant policies implemented by the Chinese government will have a positive impact on the economy, adding that the International Monetary Fund Relevant research shows that every 1 percentage point of China's economic growth will drive the economic growth of other countries by 0.3 percentage points. She believes that China's economic growth will still be higher than the global average in 2024, and China will be the main contributor to global economic growth in 2024.
"The relevant policies implemented by the Chinese government will have a positive impact on the economy."
"The relevant policies implemented by the Chinese government will have a positive impact on the economy." The International Monetary Fund said that an important reason for the upward adjustment of China's economic growth rate is that China has adopted a series of effective macro policies.
Starting from February 5, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points; in 2024, the total fiscal expenditure will be ensured to increase... Since the beginning of the year, macro policies have been frequently launched to provide strong support for the smooth operation of the economy.
"We believe that China still has considerable policy space." World Trade Organization Director General Iweala said that although China's economy faces some challenges, the Chinese government has the ability to take necessary measures to boost the economy, and some of these measures have begun to have a positive impact .
Since the beginning of this year, China has insisted on seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through advancement, and establishing first and then breaking. China has strengthened counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustments in macro policies, enhanced the consistency of macro policy orientations, continued to deepen reform and opening up, and solidly promoted high-quality development.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission held a conference on innovative development "Jinjiang Experience" to promote high-quality development of the private economy in Jinjiang, Fujian, once again releasing a positive signal to promote high-quality development of the private economy.
We need power from reform and vitality from opening up. In the new year, many places in China have drawn up a "roadmap" to continue to build a market-oriented, legalized, and international first-class business environment: Shanghai proposed to further promote high-level reform and opening up, enhance development momentum and competitiveness, and comprehensively Vigorously promote pioneering reforms and leading opening-up; Guizhou will implement actions to improve the quality and efficiency of foreign trade; Chongqing will build a new land-sea corridor in the west at a high level and create an inland openness highland.
On January 28, China and Thailand signed a mutual visa exemption agreement. After the news was announced, related searches on many travel platforms increased significantly, and the search popularity of Thailand-related keywords increased by more than 7 times compared with the previous day. The head of the United Nations Tourism Organization recently stated that China's visa-free policy will help the world's tourism industry pick up again, and the vigorous development of China's tourism industry will also drive the common development of the tourism industry of neighboring countries.
At a time when the world economic recovery is sluggish and external demand is sluggish, how to consolidate the fundamentals of foreign trade and foreign investment and cultivate new momentum? China’s answer is: to expand high-level opening up.
"China will continue to be an economy that can provide huge opportunities for bilateral cooperation." Singapore Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong said that China's economy is huge, has many advantages in advanced manufacturing, green economy and other fields, and also has a huge market.
"Investing in China is investing in the future" "China has become synonymous with the best investment destination" "The next 'China' will still be China"... Multinational companies continue to be optimistic about the Chinese market and believe that China is promoting high-quality development and realizing Chinese-style modernization In the process, it will bring huge potential for cooperation to the world.
At the same time, macroeconomic policies work together to prevent and resolve risks and lay a solid foundation for stable economic operation.
Recently, international public opinion has continued to pay attention to the intensive release of "white lists" of real estate projects in many places in China, and some cities have adjusted their real estate purchase restriction policies. According to statistics from CRIC Research Center, since 2024, more than 50 cities including Guangzhou and Dongguan have adjusted and optimized real estate policies. The International Monetary Fund said it welcomed China's measures to curb risks in the real estate sector.
"Guarantee the delivery of buildings, protect people's livelihood, and ensure stability", all localities have paid close attention to the implementation, and the promotion work has achieved phased results. According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the overall resumption rate of the special loan project for Baojiao Building has reached 99.9%.
As of February 20, 214 cities in 29 provinces have established urban real estate financing coordination mechanisms, and proposed a "white list" of real estate projects in batches and pushed them to commercial banks, involving a total of 5,349 real estate projects.
The International Monetary Fund believes that if China can continue to take measures to promote reform of the real estate sector and boost consumer confidence, China's economic recovery may be faster than expected.
“Being rooted in China means seizing the future.”
International media and observers have generally noticed that around the Chinese Lunar New Year, the lively consumer atmosphere has rapidly heated up.
At the Hema Fresh Store in Shanghai Huiyang Plaza, flower partner Wang Xiahao is busy introducing various flower care methods to customers. Yinliu, which has a festive atmosphere, saw its total sales in Hema stores increase 2.5 times year-on-year in January.
The "ice and snow" feast, Harbin's popularity has not diminished since New Year's Day. The number of travel orders during the Spring Festival holiday increased more than 10 times year-on-year, bringing many southern tourists a Northeastern New Year experience.
On January 26, the first day of the Spring Festival travel rush, there were nearly 190 million cross-regional personnel movements across society, an increase of 19.7% over the same period last year; data from Meituan and Dianping showed that orders for Spring Festival travel consumption booked half a month in advance increased by approximately 10% compared with the same period last year. 5 times... The increase in the flow of people and logistics has promoted the continued recovery of China's economy.
In 2023, final consumer spending will contribute 82.5% to China's economic growth, becoming the main engine driving China's economic growth.
"Holiday consumption may significantly boost China's GDP in the first quarter." Foreign media reported, "Observers expect that the tourism boom will not only enhance the festive atmosphere, but also become a catalyst to promote consumption."
Stimulate potential consumption and expand profitable investment. Since the beginning of this year, from the central to local governments, policies to expand domestic demand have been intensively introduced, injecting new vitality into the high-quality development of the Chinese economy. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to actively cultivate new consumption growth points and drive investment in related fields; the Ministry of Commerce designated 2024 as the "Consumption Promotion Year" and organized a variety of consumption promotion activities; Shandong proposed that it will hold home appliances, electronics More than 200 activities to promote consumption of products; Heilongjiang proposed to build 1,000 provincial key industrial projects in 2024...
"Being rooted in China means seizing the future." Gu Yushao, Medtronic's global senior vice president, told reporters that in 2023, China will provide support in the construction of medical infrastructure, medical security systems, and medical innovation research and development, which will effectively benefit the people and also promote the development of the medical industry. Bringing important opportunities, "our determination to develop in China is long-term and firm."
"China is becoming an 'innovation ground' for the implementation of cutting-edge technologies."
The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year proposed that technological innovation should be used to promote industrial innovation, especially disruptive and cutting-edge technologies to spawn new industries, new models, and new drivers to develop new productive forces. This move has attracted great attention from the international community.
Since the beginning of the new year, China has focused on accelerating the development of new productive forces and continued to make efforts. Innovation, development, transformation and upgrading have become important new trends in the Chinese economy.
The digital twin workshop significantly reduces early product R&D costs, and the smart logistics system significantly improves the overall utilization rate of logistics equipment... In the Digital Economy Industrial Park in Luqiao District, Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province, Yuanshi technology is drawing a "new curve" of development for the transformation and upgrading of traditional enterprises. .
This newly unveiled industrial park this year has become an enabling center for Luqiao District to move from a strong manufacturing area to an innovation highland. "The development of new productive forces has brought about new changes in the development methods of traditional industries." said Pan Chongmin, secretary of the Luqiao District Party Committee.
Coincidentally, the 2030 goals recently announced by Volkswagen Group (China) also regard digital transformation and upgrading as an important focus. "We will strengthen our R&D layout in China and respond more quickly to the needs of Chinese consumers by making better use of local innovation," said Chairman and CEO Bai Ruide.
"China is transforming from a 'world assembly shop' to a 'global high-tech parts assembly factory.'" A recent article published on the website of the Russian Strategic Culture Foundation believes that China will accelerate industrial modernization and use the most advanced scientific research, experimental and design results to improve labor productivity and become the leader of technological innovation.
"We deeply feel that China is becoming an 'innovation field' for the implementation of cutting-edge technologies." Xiao Song, global executive vice president of Siemens, told reporters that China is actively promoting industrial digitalization and green and low-carbon transformation, which is highly consistent with Siemens' technological advantages.
Innovation is the first driving force for development. Since the beginning of this year, all regions and departments in China have firmly grasped the "narrow nose" of scientific and technological innovation, worked together to move toward "newness", accelerated the formation of new quality productivity, and cultivated new momentum for high-quality development.
To vigorously support scientific and technological innovation, the Ministry of Finance stated that it will take more powerful and effective measures to promote the construction of a modern industrial system led by scientific and technological innovation and vigorously develop new productive forces; focusing on financial services for economic and social development, the State Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau requires to better serve new industries. The development of quality productivity and the construction of a modern industrial system; Guangdong has proposed the implementation of five future industrial cluster action plans, Anhui has launched the construction of future industry pilot areas, Jiangxi will implement major scientific and technological achievements maturation and engineering research projects, and scientific and technological enterprise echelon cultivation actions...
"Accelerating the development of new productive forces points out an important focus for the high-quality development of China's economy. It means that we must get rid of dependence on the traditional growth path more quickly, rely on technological innovation to drive industrial change, improve total factor productivity, and be conducive to the construction of modern industries. system to promote high-quality development of China's economy." said Liu Qiao, dean of Peking University Guanghua School of Management.
"In general, the basic trend of China's economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed. An open China will continue to bring more cooperation opportunities to the world. China's economic prospects are bright, and we are full of confidence in this." Looking forward to 2024. Liu Sushe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that overall, there are still many factors supporting the stable and healthy development of China's economy, and macroeconomic regulation will intensify efforts to continue to promote the economy to achieve effective qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth.
"Today, China is becoming a distinctive new type of power and a dynamic economy." Martin Jacques, a well-known British scholar, said that the 2024 New Year's message delivered by President Xi Jinping showed a brilliant and promising future. China is ready to take off and has announced to the world the direction, policies and principles that China will continue to adhere to in the new year. Chinese-style modernization is accelerating in a way that is different from the West.
(Our reporters Wu Lejun, Wu Qiuyu, Yu Yichun, Yang Yi and Li Zhiwei)
(People's Daily)