Looking forward to this year's economic work from the rebound

【Guangming Forum】Looking forward to this year's economic work from the rebound

In the past year, we have achieved economic recovery and development, and the upward trend has been effectively consolidated. China's economy, which has experienced ups and downs, has strengthened its physique, strengthened its muscles and bones, and radiated new vitality in its steady and far-reaching development. In particular, a series of macroeconomic data released recently reflect the characteristics of economic structure optimization, kinetic energy transformation, and positive trends, which have brought confidence and confidence to our economic work in 2024.

In terms of aggregate, the actual GDP growth rate in the first three quarters of 2023 will be 5.2%, and the expected goal of achieving annual GDP growth of about 5% is in sight, which marks that China's economy has returned to normal from the impact of the epidemic and has achieved a rebound. It should be noted that the GDP deflator in the first three quarters was negative, making the nominal GDP growth rate lower than the real GDP, because many intuitive feelings in economic life such as corporate profits and wage income are nominal values, which leads to a certain differentiation between macro data and micro feelings, and the actual output value and income increase are the most real evidence of the economic rebound, and also the source of confidence and confidence. Confidence and confidence also come from the mainstream international voices are optimistic about China's economic prospects. Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2023 and 2024 from 5.0% and 4.2% to 5.4% and 4.6%, respectively, and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2023 from 5.1% to 5.2%. The upward trend of the economy is expected to be further consolidated.

Investment is the most powerful factor in the "troika" that pulls the economy. From January to November 2023, the national investment in fixed assets increased by 1.11% year-on-year, although the growth rate was at a low level compared with previous years, but the year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment reached 2.9%, of which the investment in high-tech industries increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with a good growth trend, especially the output of solar cells and new energy vehicles increased by 10.5% and 63.7% respectively This reflects the continuous growth of new economic momentum, the formation of new quality productivity is accelerating, and our long-term goal of optimizing the investment structure and supply-side structural reform is being achieved. In terms of trends, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first three quarters of 26 have turned from decline to increase for the first time after declining year-on-year for five consecutive quarters, and the continuous recovery of corporate profits will bring about a continuous increase in corporate confidence and lay a solid foundation for the recovery of fixed asset investment in 7.

Consumption is the ballast stone of economic growth. In the first three quarters of 2023, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 83.2%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods in November reached 11,42505.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.10%, and the growth rate was 2.5 percentage points faster than that in October. In particular, during the past New Year's Day holiday, 1 million domestic tourists traveled, and domestic tourism revenue was 35.797 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.200%, an increase of 7.2019% and 9.4% respectively over the same period in 5, fully returning to the growth track before the epidemic. The younger travel population has driven the rise of holiday-themed tourism, which contains new consumption opportunities. In addition, the accelerated development of new forms of consumption, including the digital economy, green industries, health care and smart homes, is conducive to the formation of a benign interaction between new quality productivity and new consumption power. It can be expected that with the comprehensive recovery of consumer spending and the implementation of a series of policies to support income growth, the recovery of household consumption in 6 will be a high probability event, the energy level of high-end consumption and cross-border consumption is expected to be further improved, and traditional consumption fields such as automobiles and electronic products are also expected to usher in steady growth. In addition, foreign trade is also the most dynamic factor affecting economic growth. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in the first 2024 months of 2023, the total import and export value of China's trade in goods was 11.37 trillion yuan, the same as the same period last year. Looking forward to 96, we have reason to believe that foreign trade will become a bright spot to drive the economic recovery.

The release of macroeconomic regulation and control policy space is a greater source of confidence and confidence in achieving a good economic rebound. Since January 1 this year, the implementation of a large number of fiscal and taxation policies with the goal of stabilizing growth has had a significant impact on the "troika" It will bring significant promoting: in the field of resident consumption, the policy of exempting low-income people from handling the final settlement of individual income tax has accurately reduced the burden on taxpayers; the continuation of the policy of exempting new energy vehicles from vehicle purchase tax, and the policy of rebate of individual income tax paid by taxpayers who sell their own houses and re-purchase them in the market within one year after the sale of their current houses, also have a significant stimulating effect on high-value consumption. In the field of enterprise investment, in order to guide enterprises to increase investment, enterprises with a unit value of newly purchased equipment and appliances not exceeding 1 million yuan are allowed to be included in the current cost and deducted in the calculation of taxable income at one time, and depreciation is no longer calculated on an annual basis; In order to encourage investment in environmental protection, qualified third-party enterprises engaged in pollution prevention and control are subject to a reduced corporate income tax rate of 1%. In the field of foreign trade, the continuous implementation of policies such as "non-contact" handling of export tax rebates, "no filling in" for export tax rebates, and the implementation of paperless measures for return and customs clearance will also further promote the recovery of foreign trade.

(Author: Zou Yinan, researcher at the Xi Jinping Research Center for Socialist Thought with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era, Central Party School [National Academy of Administration])