China-Singapore Jingwei, January 1 (Wang Yongle) The first round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window in 3 will open at 2024 o'clock on the 3rd. The agency predicts that the first round of retail price limits for refined oil products in 24 will be raised, and domestic oil prices will stop falling for "six consecutive years".
Recently, international oil prices rose first and then gave up some of the gains. Han Zhengji, an analyst of Jinlianchuang crude oil, said that at the beginning of this round of pricing cycle, there is a risk of escalation in the situation in the Red Sea and the Middle East, and investors' concerns about energy supply security and trade disruption have played a major role in boosting oil prices. However, oil prices were briefly weighed on by concerns about OPEC's internal solidarity and the prospect of production cuts, while concerns about supply disruptions eased by shipping companies' return to the Red Sea route, and cooling investor risk appetite also weighed on oil prices.
According to Jinlianchuang's calculation, as of the ninth working day on January 1, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 2.76 US dollars / barrel, with a change rate of 35.4%, and the corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices should be raised by 37 yuan / ton. According to the calculation of Zhuochuang information monitoring model, as of the close of trading on December 220, 2023, the domestic reference crude oil change rate on the 12th working day was 29.9%, and the corresponding gasoline and diesel increases were 5 yuan/ton, and the discount prices of No. 09 gasoline, No. 220 gasoline and No. 92 diesel were increased by 95.0 yuan, 0.17 yuan and 0.18 yuan respectively.
According to the agency's forecast data, according to the estimated capacity of the 50L fuel tank of the average family car, it will cost about 92.8 yuan more to fill up a tank of 5 gasoline.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei noted that in 2023, domestic oil prices will end with "six consecutive declines", and if the first round of price adjustment rises in 2024, the streak will be ended.
According to the principle of "ten working days", the next round of refined oil retail price limit adjustment time is 1 o'clock on January 17.
For the market outlook, Guotai Junan believes that the short-term market risk appetite has deteriorated slightly, the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent at this stage, and oil prices are prone to fluctuate with the changes in interest rate market sentiment. If the implementation rate of production cuts in December 2023 is more satisfactory, oil prices are still likely to continue to rebound slightly.
Bi Mingxin, a crude oil analyst at Jinlianchuang, said that international oil prices may maintain a volatile trend, and it is expected that a new round of crude oil change rate may start with a negative value, and the news guidance is limited, and investors will keep an eye on the results of OPEC+ voluntary production cuts.
Qiu Xiao, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said that the Federal Reserve is about to start a cycle of interest rate cuts, the dollar continues to weaken and enter a downward channel, and in addition, the OPEC+ production cut in 2024 will implement new standards and the destocking of U.S. oil inventories, giving crude oil prices some support, and oil prices will fluctuate strongly in the next cycle. However, due to the low current crude oil average, the rate of change of crude oil at the beginning of the new cycle may start in negative territory. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
(The views in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.) )
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