Lower down payment and lower interest rates! What is the impact of the new policy on the Beijing-Shanghai property market?

Chinanews.com, December 12 (China News Financial Reporter Zuo Yukun) Within one day, several key policies for the property market were introduced in two key cities in Beijing and Shanghai.

On December 12, Beijing and Shanghai successively issued new policies for the property market, including differential adjustment of the down payment ratio of the first and second homes, the reduction of mortgage interest rates, and the optimization of the identification standards for ordinary houses. This is also another big move in first-tier cities after Shenzhen lowered the down payment ratio and optimized the identification standards for ordinary houses in November.

Beijing and Shanghai can be called the "strongest weather vane" of the national property market. What benefits will the implementation of the blockbuster new deal bring, and what impact will it have on the national real estate market?

Beijing Residence. Photo by Zuo Yukun by Chinanews.com

Lower the down payment ratio

According to the Notice on Adjusting and Optimizing the City's Ordinary Housing Standards and Individual Housing Loan Policies jointly issued by the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other five departments, the minimum down payment ratio for the first housing personal housing loan (including commercial personal housing loans and housing provident fund personal housing loans) in Beijing has been uniformly reduced to 30%, and the minimum down payment ratio for the second housing has been reduced to 50% in the six urban districts (Dongcheng, Xicheng, Chaoyang, Haidian, Fengtai and Shijingshan districts) and 40% in the six non-urban districts.

"In Beijing, the down payment ratio for the first house was 35% for ordinary houses and 40% for non-ordinary houses, and the down payment ratio for second houses was 60% for ordinary houses and 80% for non-ordinary houses. The down payment ratio has been significantly reduced, especially the down payment ratio of the second set of non-ordinary residential buildings has dropped by up to 40 percentage points, and the threshold for buying a house has been significantly lowered. Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Finger Research Institute, pointed out.

On the same day, according to the WeChat official account of "Shanghai Release", Shanghai has optimized the differentiated housing credit policy since December 12. The minimum down payment ratio for the first house is adjusted to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for the second house is adjusted to not less than 30%. In addition, in the Lingang New Area of the Free Trade Zone and the six administrative districts of Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, Baoshan and Jinshan, the minimum down payment ratio for two houses is adjusted to no less than 50%.

According to the data compiled by the E-House Research Institute, the down payment ratio for the first house before the adjustment in Shanghai was 35%, the down payment ratio for the second house was 50% for ordinary houses, and 70% for non-ordinary houses.

"Taking the purchase of a second house with a total price of 600 million yuan as an example, the down payment ratio was 70% in the past, and the down payment needs to be paid 420.50 million; under the new policy, the down payment ratio is 300%, and the down payment is 120 million, that is, the down payment expenditure is reduced by 40.240 million; if the housing belongs to the implementation of differentiated policy areas, the down payment ratio is 180%, and the down payment is <>.<> million, reducing the down payment expenditure of <>.<> million. Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, pointed out that the decline in the down payment ratio has directly lowered the threshold for entering the market for the first set of rigid needs and the second set of improved housing demand.

Lower the mortgage interest rate floor

Beijing has simultaneously lowered the lower limit of mortgage interest rates. Specifically, the lower limits of the first and second sets of interest rate policies in the six urban districts are not lower than the loan prime rate (LPR) + 10 basis points and not less than LPR + 60 basis points, respectively, and the lower limits of the first and second sets of interest rate policies in the six non-urban districts are not less than LPR and not less than LPR + 55 basis points respectively. The China Index Research Institute pointed out that compared with the original first set plus 55 basis points and the second set plus 105 basis points, the mortgage interest rate has been significantly reduced, further reducing the cost of buying a house.

In addition, Beijing has also extended the loan term to 30 years, which is also conducive to reducing the monthly repayment pressure of home buyers.

Shanghai has adjusted the lower limit of the interest rate for the first home to not less than LPR-10 basis points, and the lower limit for the second home interest rate to not less than LPR+30 basis points. The lower limit of the interest rate for second housing in the Lingang New Area of the Free Trade Zone and the six administrative districts of Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, Baoshan and Jinshan has been adjusted to not less than LPR+6 basis points.

"Based on the standard calculation of the loan principal of 200 million, the equal principal and interest of 30 years, and the interest rate of the second home loan, the mortgage interest rate in the past was 5.25%, and the monthly payment was 11044,4 yuan. According to the 5.10134% interest rate of the new deal, the monthly payment is 910,<> yuan. In this comparison, the monthly payment before and after the new deal has decreased by <> yuan. Yan Yuejin said that the decline in mortgage interest rates has directly reduced the cost of monthly payments or mortgage loans.

A glimpse of Shanghai. Photo by Fan Yubin

Adjustment of general housing standards

Since the release of the current standard for ordinary houses in 2014, Beijing has adjusted the standards for the recognition of ordinary houses for the first time in 9 years. The comparison of the standards before and after the China Index Research Institute pointed out that the difference mainly includes the adjustment of the construction area of a single set from less than 140 square meters to less than 144 square meters. The upper limit of the transaction price in the Fifth Ring Road was increased by 39600.85000 times from 1,15 yuan/square meter to 31680,65000 yuan/square meter, the upper limit of the transaction price in the fifth and sixth ring roads was increased from 1,05 yuan/square meter to 23760,45000 yuan/square meter, an increase of 89.<> times, and the upper limit of the transaction price outside the Sixth Ring Road was increased from <>,<> yuan/square meter to <>,<> yuan/square meter, an increase of <>%.

Yan Yuejin pointed out that compared with the adjustment of the standard for the identification of ordinary houses in Shenzhen, it can be found that Shenzhen has directly canceled the requirement of the total price, while Beijing has adjusted the total price line, and there are still requirements for the total price.

"Judging from the adjustment of ordinary houses in Beijing, it is the most stringent in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, which not only limits the area of a single set, but also limits the unit price. The upper limit of the price is more clearly defined, and it also highlights the adherence to the tone of 'housing for living, not speculation'. Zhang Bo, president of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, believes that since a large number of new supplies in Beijing are outside the Fifth Ring Road, this adjustment itself is more conducive to the removal of new houses in the peripheral areas and the rebound of second-hand housing in the Fifth Ring Road.

In Shanghai, the adjustment is to optimize the criteria for determining the standard and eliminate the price standard, and second, to moderately raise the floor area standard, from 140 square meters to 144 square meters.

"The standard of ordinary housing is associated with preferential tax policies, and the adjustment standard takes the physical elements of housing as the recognition condition, which greatly improves the coverage of ordinary housing and allows more second-hand housing transactions to enjoy preferential tax policies. Yan Yuejin said.

It will play a greater role in improving the overall heat

The industry generally believes that the overall intensity of the policy adjustment in Beijing and Shanghai is larger, involving a wide range of areas, and making full efforts to reduce the cost of buying a house and the threshold for buying a house, releasing a more positive signal, which will bring positive guidance to the local and national market sentiment.

"The new policy is conducive to promoting the release of rigid demand and improved housing demand, especially the demand for second set of improved housing. After the policy optimization, the activity of Beijing's real estate market is expected to increase, which is expected to further affect price expectations. Chen Wenjing said.

"Lower the threshold for buying a house, let more people with purchasing power enter the market, improve the decentralization of second-hand houses and new houses, and alleviate the expectations of owners and developers to sell houses at lower prices, thereby slowing down the trend of increasing second-hand housing listings. At the same time, it promotes the circulation of real estate transactions, alleviates the tension of developers' capital chains, and achieves the dual purpose of risk prevention and stable growth. Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, pointed out.

After this adjustment, looking at the restrictive measures of the property markets in the two places, in addition to the purchase restriction policy, it has basically been "in place in one step". Zhang Bo believes that "it is expected that at the end of the first quarter of next year, the policy will be followed up according to market feedback, and the most noteworthy is the relaxation of purchase restrictions, which is also the most obvious policy effect in first-tier cities." ”

The industry expects that the first-hand and second-hand transaction volume in the second half of December will usher in a significant rise, and the market will stabilize significantly in the first quarter of 12, and a "small spring" is expected. (ENDS)