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Closed restaurant in Bremen during the Corona lockdown in January 2021
Photo: Chris Emil Janssen / imago images/Chris Emil Janßen
According to a study by the Ifo Institute, most of the German government's aid programmes in the corona crisis have achieved their goal. "Above all, the liquidity support for companies with business bans and the extended short-time work rules were appropriate," said Joachim Ragnitz from the Ifo branch in Dresden. In some cases, however, the support was quite low.
The federal government's coronavirus aid amounted to 75 billion euros in grants for companies threatened by their existence alone. In addition, there were some tax cuts. The reduction in VAT alone cost 20 billion euros, while loans to companies affected by the pandemic amounted to around 70 billion euros.
According to Ifo, the reduced tax rate and the granting of loans to already weakened companies must be viewed critically in retrospect. "They were not specifically aimed at companies that had problems due to Corona," said Ragnitz.
It cannot be ruled out that companies with business models that do not work anyway could remain on the market longer as a result of the government subsidies. Basically, the study describes the rules as "quite restrictive in many cases". According to the researchers, companies' reserves have often been depleted.
The financing of the aid will place a heavy burden on future generations, it added. According to Ifo, the loans taken out during the pandemic must still be repaid by 2058.
Wave of bankruptcies weakens
There are currently signs of a slight improvement in the financial situation of German companies. According to provisional figures from the Federal Statistical Office, the wave of bankruptcies among German companies weakened somewhat in November. At the local courts, the number of regular insolvencies filed for increased by 18.8 percent compared to the same month last year. However, this was almost four percentage points less than in October. The growth rates have been in double digits since June.
After Corona, many companies had been saved from insolvency with state aid, also because of the energy crisis. The current increase is therefore seen by experts as more of a normalization.
However, the slowdown in growth is no reason to give the all-clear, warned the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce. "High costs for energy, interest rates, but also for labour, combined with weak demand and a shortage of skilled workers, are putting more and more companies in financial difficulties," said SME expert Marc Evers.
The Professional Association of Insolvency Administrators (VID) sees the real estate industry in particular in a fundamental transformation process. "The Signa case makes it very clear that there were many companies that invested in the real estate segment during the low interest rate phase," said VID Chairman Christoph Niering. "As long as the interest rate was low, the business model was successful. Since mid-2022, however, we have seen interest rate hikes and a consistent correction in prices and valuations." However, no disruptive wave of insolvencies is expected.
The Federal Office presented final figures for the first three quarters of this year. According to the report, the local courts reported 13,270 corporate insolvencies filed in the nine months. This was 24.7 percent more than a year earlier. The creditors are demanding 21.1 billion euros in the proceedings, compared to 10.8 billion euros in the same period last year.
dab/AFP/dpa