A number of international institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth

Recently, a number of international organizations and international business institutions have raised their growth forecasts, casting a "vote of confidence" in China's economy. In the face of the complex internal and external environment, China has firmly promoted opening-up and continued to make efforts to stabilize growth, and its economy has shown strong vitality, resilience and momentum, which has been widely recognized by international institutions.

The recovery is positive

On November 11, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released its latest economic outlook report, raising its forecast for China's economic growth in 29 to 2023.5%, higher than its forecast in September. Earlier, the International Monetary Fund announced on November 2 that it would raise its forecast for China's economic growth in 9 from 11% to 7.2023%.

A number of international business institutions have also raised their forecasts for China's economic growth. JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised from 5% to 5.2%, Morgan Stanley from 4.8% to 5.1%, Citigroup AG from 5% to 5.3%, UBS Group AG from 4.8% to 5.2%, and Deutsche Bank from 5.1% to 5.2%.

Although the numbers vary slightly, these adjustments all point to the fact that China's economic recovery is more positive than the international community had expected. There is a solid basis for these international institutions to raise their forecasts. Since the second half of the year, China's economy has withstood internal and external pressures, performed steadily, and has become more and more positive towards the end of the year.

In the first three quarters of this year, the GDP growth rate reached 5.2%, laying a solid foundation for achieving the expected target of about 5% for the whole year. China's economy has not only maintained its growth momentum, but also improved the quality of growth. In the first three quarters, China's investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.4% year-on-year; The export of electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells increased by 41.7% year-on-year; The added value of the service industry increased by 6% year-on-year, and its contribution to economic growth increased to 63%; The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and the retail sales of services increased by 18.9%. A series of data show that the effective demand has rebounded rapidly, and the industrial structure has been continuously optimized.

Xiong Yi, chief economist of Deutsche Bank Group in China, believes that the relevant data shows that China's economy has bottomed out and stabilized, and it is expected to achieve the annual growth target.

Entering the fourth quarter, China's economy maintained a positive trend. The annual intended turnover of the 784th China International Import Expo reached US$1.6 billion, a record high, an increase of 7.11% over the previous edition. This year's "Double <>", Tmall, Jingdong and other platforms have generally achieved outstanding results, offline major shopping malls, commercial complexes have carried out diversified and intelligent promotional activities, online and offline joint efforts, commodity consumption and service consumption co-prosperity and symbiosis, residents' consumption potential continues to be released.

Policies are strong and effective

The growing confidence of the international community in China's economy is also due to the strong and effective policies of the Chinese government. China has steadily promoted the expansion of domestic demand, resolved economic and financial risks in a prudent and orderly manner, and at the same time insisted on expanding opening-up to stabilize the fundamentals of foreign investment and foreign trade.

Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said that an important reason for the upward revision of China's economic growth forecast in 2023 is that China's macroeconomic policies have a significant role in supporting the economy, so that "China's economy is expected to achieve its growth target in 2023 and recover strongly."

Xiong Yi believes that China's issuance of additional government bonds and raising the budget deficit target have released a strong policy signal and are a positive response to market calls.

Recently, the State Council approved the relevant plan to support Beijing to promote the deepening of reform and opening up in key areas of the service industry such as telecommunications, health care, and finance. China has implemented a unilateral visa-free policy for ordinary passport holders from six countries: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Malaysia. The Ministry of Commerce shall organize a special clean-up of regulations and measures containing unreasonable differential treatment between domestic and foreign investors.

Zhou Mi, a researcher at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said that a series of measures have made the international community see China's determination to open up, and it is also conducive to deepening the understanding of China's economy, eliminating misunderstandings about China's economy, and enhancing confidence in China's economy.

"In the face of a complex external environment, the Chinese government has insisted on expanding opening-up in relevant industries and markets, and further promoted the construction of open platforms such as free trade zones, so as to create opportunities for all parties to share the dividends of China's development. At the same time, international platforms such as the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, the China International Import Expo, the CIFTIS, and the Consumer Expo, as well as many innovative and opening-up measures, have effectively promoted the international community's understanding of China and promoted all parties to strengthen cooperation with China. Zhou Mi said.

Firm investment confidence

The intensive upward revision of China's economic growth forecast by international institutions also shows that some of the efforts to smear China's economy have not worked. China's economic boom is imperative, and strengthening cooperation with China is a must.

The 3486th CIIE attracted 500,289 exhibitors, including 20 of the world's top 500 companies and industry leading enterprises, the largest number in the past. The internationalization rate of exhibitors at the <>nd Global Digital Trade Expo exceeded <>%, and one-seventh of them were Fortune <> companies.

Many multinational companies have expressed the attitude that China is an indispensable and important part of the global economy, and "de-risking" and "decoupling" will not work at all.

As the international community becomes more optimistic about China's economic development prospects and has a more full understanding of the importance of the Chinese market, the confidence of foreign-funded enterprises in investing and operating in China is also becoming firmer.

In the third quarter of this year, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade conducted research interviews with nearly 700 foreign-funded enterprises, and eighty percent of the surveyed enterprises expected their profits to be flat or improve this year, and nearly ninety percent expected their profits to be flat or improve in the next five years.

On December 12, Schneider Electric's Photovoltaic Storage Direct Flexible Demonstration Base was completed in Wuhan. Ren Jing, senior vice president of Schneider Electric and head of energy management low-voltage business in China, said that China's new energy industry has a global leading position, and Schneider Electric's increase in investment in new energy projects in the Chinese market is a future-oriented move.

Like Schneider Electric, more and more foreign-funded companies are realizing that the Chinese market has great potential and can become the "engine" for the continuous growth of business performance. At the same time, China's economy continues to transform to high-quality development, and various advanced production factors continue to gather, which will become an important driving force for foreign-funded enterprises to achieve business upgrading.

It is precisely for this reason that in the context of the global downturn in transnational investment, the scale of China's foreign investment attraction is still at a historical high. In the first 10 months of this year, 41947,32 foreign-invested enterprises were newly established across the country, a year-on-year increase of 1.<>%.

Yuan Yong

(Economic Times)