, Beijing, December 12 (Reporter Li Jinlei) How will China's economy be in 9? How will China's economy do in 2023?

The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 12 to analyze and study the economic work in 8. The meeting set the tone for the economic work in 2024, emphasizing that "next year, we must adhere to seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking down", releasing important signals.

Summarize the economic situation in 2023

China's economy is picking up

Regarding China's economic situation in 2023, the meeting pointed out that China's economy has rebounded for the better, high-quality development has been solidly promoted, important progress has been made in the construction of a modern industrial system, new breakthroughs have been made in scientific and technological innovation, reform and opening up have been promoted in depth, the foundation for safe development has been consolidated and consolidated, people's livelihood has been effectively guaranteed, and solid steps have been taken to build a modern socialist country in an all-round way.

The above judgment is supported by data: gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, maintaining a leading growth rate among the world's major economies.

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and dean of the Research Institute of Guangdong Kai Securities, told China News Finance that the meeting generally affirmed the achievements of the economy this year under the complex internal and external situation, that is, "rebounding for the better". This year, China's economy is generally in a post-epidemic recovery trend, and there is a high probability that the annual target will be completed.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently raised China's GDP growth forecast from 2023% and 2024.5% in 4 and 2.5% to 4.4% and 6.2023% respectively. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently raised its forecast for China's GDP growth in 5 to 1.5% from 2.<>%.

Data map: Anhui high-speed rail golden tourist route - Chihuang high-speed railway through the clouds and fog is picturesque. Photo by Li Heping

Deployment of economic work in 2024

At present, there are still many external instability and uncertainties, and domestic demand is still insufficient, in this context, how to do China's economy in 2024 has attracted much attention at home and abroad.

For China's economy in 2024, the meeting put forward a series of requirements and deployments: "adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability", "next year, we must adhere to seeking progress while maintaining stability, promote stability with progress, establish first and then break down", "we must enhance the consistency of macro policy orientation", "form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other", and so on.

——Persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promote stability with progress, and establish first and then break through

How to understand this new formulation of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" has been consistent, and now "promoting stability through progress, first establishing and then breaking" has been added to the end?

Zhang Lianqi, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and president of the China Enterprise Financial Management Association, told China News Finance that this proposal emphasizes the importance of "progress", "stability" is the foundation of "progress", and "progress" is the result of "stability". It is necessary to strengthen precise efforts, strengthen policy coordination and consistency, deepen reforms in key areas, and "stand" for high-quality development; It is necessary to open up to the outside world at a high level and consolidate the basic situation of foreign investment and foreign trade. Economic development is the foundation and key to solving all problems.

Zhu Keli, executive director of the China Information Association and founding president of the National Research Institute of New Economy, told China News Finance that this means that in the formulation of economic policies, it is necessary to maintain stability, but also to be enterprising and constantly promote economic development. In the process of policy implementation, it is necessary to establish first and then break down to ensure the coherence and sustainability of the policy.

Luo Zhiheng believes that this is conducive to promoting the economic improvement next year and laying a solid foundation for recovery. A stable economic and social environment is the premise of "progress", and the achievement of a stable economic environment also requires the support of aggressive policies, which promote a "stable" situation and stable expectations, such as fiscal, monetary and real estate policies. It is expected to achieve economic growth of about 5% next year, and the main drivers will be the service industry, high-end manufacturing and infrastructure investment.

-- Enhancing the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientations

The meeting pointed out that we will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. The proactive fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, improve quality and efficiency, and the prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective. It is necessary to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, and strengthen economic propaganda and public opinion guidance.

Sheng Lei, deputy director of the Investment Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that to enhance the consistency of macro policy orientation, it is necessary to promote all departments to further strengthen policy coordination and work coordination, closely cooperate, work in the same direction, and form a joint force.

Luo Zhiheng believes that enhancing the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation and strengthening economic propaganda and public opinion guidance are conducive to avoiding the "synthetic fallacy" and the formation of stable expectations. The premise of policy effectiveness and efficiency improvement is the systematic planning and coordination between policies, that is, to avoid the impact of contractionary non-economic policies on expansionary economic policies, and to proceed from the overall situation rather than the sectoral standard. In recent years, fiscal and monetary policies have continued to be coordinated, monetary policies have been coordinated with fiscal bond issuance and debt, and monetary and financial policies have supported real estate risk prevention, etc., which are expected to continue next year.

Luo Zhiheng said that on the one hand, the tone of fiscal policy maintains a positive trend, that is, to support the expansion of aggregate demand, prevent and resolve economic and social risks, and on the other hand, it puts forward "moderation" and "quality and efficiency", that is, it should be implemented according to economic and social needs, not to engage in flood irrigation, and active finance is still positive under the framework of high-quality development, so as to avoid greatly increasing fiscal risks and making finance more sustainable.

-- Forming a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other

The meeting pointed out that efforts should be made to expand domestic demand and form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other.

In the first 2023 months, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 10.6% year-on-year, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth in the first three quarters reached 9.83%. Consumption continues to be the primary driving force for economic growth.

Sheng Lei believes that the key to building a new development pattern lies in the unimpeded economic cycle, from the perspective of investment, it is necessary to guide funds to invest in areas where supply and demand benefit both and have a multiplier effect, find a combination of expanding domestic demand and deepening supply-side structural reform, and promote the "double upgrading" of industry and consumption.

Luo Zhiheng believes that the meeting made a more profound elaboration on the relationship between consumption and investment from the perspective of economic circulation. From the perspective of the "troika", consumption and investment are both demand, but consumption is the terminal demand, and investment should assume the role of optimizing the supply structure and improving the efficiency of economic operation, and cannot be simply understood as demand. Therefore, the boost in consumption has led to an increase in manufacturing investment to enhance welfare and utility, and an increase in infrastructure investment to improve the consumption environment. Increased investment, especially in high quality, will create and unleash demand, such as the creation of new and better products.

The picture shows the China Merchants Wharf in Zhangzhou, Fujian Province on November 11. (Drone photo) Photo by China News Service reporter Lu Ming

-- Consolidating the fundamentals of foreign trade and foreign investment

The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to expand high-level opening up to the outside world and consolidate the basic situation of foreign trade and foreign investment.

At present, China's foreign trade is facing great pressure, but the warmth is getting stronger. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 7th, China's imports and exports in November were 11.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and the growth rate was 2.10 percentage points larger than that in October.

Zhang Xiaotao, dean of the School of International Economics and Trade of the Central University of Finance and Economics, believes that the recent improvement of China's foreign trade has benefited from many aspects: the gradual recovery of the global economy and the gradual elimination of the "scarring effect" caused by the epidemic, which has formed a basic support for the recovery of China's imports and exports; The effect of a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade has gradually emerged; Various market players are gradually adapting to and actively responding to uncertainties; and the acceleration of institutional opening-up.

Zhu Keli believes that the signal released by the meeting shows that China's economic policy will maintain a balance between sound and aggressive, increase efforts to support the development of the real economy, and promote high-quality economic development. (ENDS)