After the number of second-hand housing online signatures in Beijing fell below the "boom and wither line" in October, this downward trend was reversed in November. According to the statistics on the official website of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, 10,11 second-hand houses were signed online in Beijing in November, up 11.12545% month-on-month and 17.8% year-on-year. Compared with the downturn of the "Silver Ten", the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing rebounded in November.

However, in the eyes of industry insiders, the effect of the long holiday in October and the continued online signing of the backlog of demand in September have brought this wave of trend to pick up. The increase in volume and the decline in price is the most realistic portrayal of the current second-hand housing in Beijing, and the shrinking transaction volume has brought more "price reduction" listings. A 10% drop in price will lead to a chance to see and also let the market sentiment fall to a low point.

The long holiday effect has brought about a rebound in transactions

1,2 sets are the "boom and wither line" of Beijing's second-hand housing monthly online signing, and in November, Beijing's second-hand housing monthly online signature returned to the "boom and wither line". A reporter from Beijing Business Daily combed and found that as of now, less than 11,1 sets have appeared 2 times in the year, that is to say, nearly half of the monthly online signatures in the year are under the "boom and wither line".

In January this year, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing was only 1,8308 units, 2022% lower than the 11875,30 units in the same period in 2021, and more than 17513% lower than the 50,8308 units in the same period in <>, and the online signature data of <>,<> units is also a rare historical low.

In February this year, the number of online signatures for second-hand houses in Beijing rebounded, reaching 2,15316 sets. In March, the number of second-hand housing in Beijing was 3,22192 sets, while the number of online signatures in April and May was 4,5 and 13928,12982 respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 37.2% and 6.8% respectively. Since June this year, the number of second-hand housing online signatures in Beijing has continued to be sluggish, and the monthly online signatures are all under the "boom and wither line".

Under the influence of a series of property market stimulus policies such as "recognising housing but not recognising loans", Beijing's second-hand housing market ushered in a wave of recovery in September, and the number of second-hand housing online signatures in Beijing in September was 9,9 units, a significant increase of more than 14262% month-on-month. However, in October, this warming momentum came to an abrupt end, and the number of second-hand housing online signatures in Beijing fell below the "boom and wither line" again.

"The number of online signatures for second-hand houses in Beijing during the year as a whole showed a continuous downward trend of 'high before and then low', which can be said to be 'the peak at the beginning'." Jia Bo, the head of a leading intermediary Changping Huilongguan area, told a reporter from Beijing Business Daily that the release of pent-up demand is the core of the rebound in the number of online signatures in February and March of the year. However, as far as the market is concerned, the overall recovery momentum during the year is insufficient, and the market is still dominated by low temperatures.

In this regard, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, also agreed. He said that the number of online signatures in the market continued to be sluggish in November, although the number of online signatures rebounded compared with October, but the main reason was the effect of the long holiday in October and the continued online signing of the backlog of demand in September. On the whole, the current market transaction continues to be at a low level. "Excluding the impact of the National Day holiday, the transactions of second-hand houses in Beijing in November and October were basically the same."

"The price will be 9% off to have a look"

"The increase in volume and the decline in price are the most realistic portrayal of the current second-hand housing in Beijing, especially the emergence of more 'price reduction' listings brought about by the shrinking transaction volume." Luo Wei, manager of Chaoyang Wangjing business district, told Beijing Business Daily that after a short recovery in September, the current second-hand housing market in Beijing mainly presents two characteristics: shrinking transaction volume and lower listing price.

In Luo Wei's view, the reason for the shrinking transaction volume is that it is difficult to match the needs of buyers and sellers, and there is no fixed standard for the purchase and sale price of second-hand houses. "Sellers who are in a hurry will choose to sell at a reduced price, while those who have a wait-and-see attitude will continue to insist on it, or simply remove their listings. Most of the buyers are wait-and-see, and those who have fallen want to fall again. ”

Judging from the timeline, this wave of demand is mainly generated in February and March of the year, driven by the hot atmosphere of the market, some buyers have the idea of "selling one and buying one". Luo Wei said that it is precisely because of this that the current market situation of selling at a discount has been created.

Generally, the replacement customer group is selling and buying at the same time, and when encountering a house with suitable conditions, you can first negotiate with the homeowner for a long cycle, most of which is about half a year. As long as there are no major problems with the house, half a year is enough time to sell. However, due to market fluctuations, the sentiment of second-hand housing has changed, and the house cannot be sold after buying, and it is difficult to sell the house even if the price is greatly reduced. "Some owners will communicate about the delivery delay, but it will only take 3 months at most, and if they are not in a hurry to sell, it will be difficult for most people to take the initiative to cut meat." Lowe said.

"At present, the listing price of second-hand houses in Beijing has been lowered, not to solve the problem of transactions, but only when the price is reduced, people will look at the house." For market changes, Jia Bo bluntly said that several "old and small" houses of store agents have been listed for half a year without a group to see, and these houses have recently been 9% off the previous listing price, so there is an opportunity to take a look. "In the future, when the two sides sit down for an interview, the price will probably drop a little more. As long as the price of second-hand housing in Beijing is not reduced, it is difficult to make a transaction, and the price reduction is relatively large. ”

According to the statistics of wheat field real estate data, the listing price of second-hand houses in Beijing in November (wheat field covered real estate) decreased by 11.0% compared with the previous month. At the same time as the listing price fell, the bargaining space for second-hand housing also expanded compared with the previous month, and the bargaining space for second-hand housing in Beijing expanded by 3.11 percentage points in November compared with the previous month, and the bargaining space reached the largest in the year.

Market game and policy effect attenuation

From the perspective of market trends, Beijing's second-hand housing market has obviously entered the stage of game between buyers and sellers, and the increase in bargaining space and "price for volume" is the process of game between buyers and sellers.

Wang Xiaochang, chief analyst of Zhuge Data Research Center, pointed out that the current number of listings in Beijing's second-hand housing market is still at a historical high, of which "old and small" account for a large proportion. In addition, due to the high number of listings, buyers can choose more space, so owners who are in a hurry to sell can only use the price advantage to attract buyers and shorten the transaction cycle.

"Recently, there are some signs of bottoming out, and Beijing's second-hand housing market has also entered the stage of 'bottom consolidation', and the price has fallen, and whether the transaction volume has rebounded depends on December." In Zhang Dawei's view, the basic line of Beijing's second-hand housing boom is 12,1 second-hand houses per month, but the market mainly relies on the demand for school district housing, and the demand will decline after April. In 5, Xiaoyangchun is largely the release of the pent-up demand for school district housing and the early stage, and in the absence of favorable policies, the reason for the market downward adjustment in the second quarter is that in addition to the decrease in demand for school district housing, the price of some housing has risen, which has also affected the market to continue to rise. Buyers and sellers start playing.

"In addition to the game between buyers and sellers, the effect of the policy of stabilizing the property market has decreased significantly." Zhang Dawei said that in September, the policy of "recognising the house without recognising the loan" only affected part of the improvement demand into the market, but for the families who changed houses, they must sell the second-hand houses to replace, and the current second-hand houses have been close to 9,17 units, and the overall low-end housing has been unsalable.

In addition, in the case of the decline in housing prices in Beijing in October, the price of second-hand housing in Beijing fell again in November, and the market is looking forward to the fine-tuning of easing policies for rigid demand, including the fine-tuning of suburban purchase restrictions that have appeared in Shanghai, and the adjustment of down payments for second homes in Shenzhen, so the market is also looking forward to more easing policies in Beijing.

Talking about the issue of Xiaoyangchun in 2024, Zhang Dawei bluntly said, "There will be a wave of Xiaoyangchun market in the Beijing market around the Spring Festival every year, but it is expected that the popularity of Xiaoyangchun in 2024 will be lower than in 2023."

Beijing Business Daily reporter Wang Yinhao