Author: Qi Ning
Recently, Zheshang Bank, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications and other banks (proposed) held a symposium on real estate enterprises, and the market is expected to further heat up the implementation of a new round of financing support policies for real estate enterprises.
For the implementation of this round of bank credit support under the "three not less than" rumors, a number of institutions and banking people told the first financial reporter that considering that the support momentum of the big banks for the head real estate enterprises in the early stage is still there, the more obvious changes in support may be the joint-stock banks and small and medium-sized banks with lower growth rates, and it is expected that the head real estate enterprises and first- and second-tier cities are still the main and priority layout direction.
On the other hand, the overall growth rate of real estate loans in the banking industry is low, and the issuance of mortgages mainly depends on the recovery of market demand.
According to the semi-annual report data of some listed banks, the first financial reporter found that in the first half of this year, the growth rate of listed banks such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Huaxia Bank, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Hangzhou, Everbright Bank, Ping An Bank, CITIC Bank, Zheshang Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank declined significantly. In the same period, the four major banks of industry and agriculture and China Construction still maintained a growth rate of more than 5%, and the year-on-year growth rate of the Postal Savings Bank was 37.2%.
A number of banks have expressed their stance to increase financing support for real estate enterprises
From the central bank, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration (hereinafter referred to as the "State Administration of Financial Supervision") and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly held a symposium on real estate enterprises on November 11, to the financial regulatory authorities held a symposium on financial institutions on the 7th, and then to the release of the "Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy in the Third Quarter of 17" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") issued by the central bank on the 27th, the signals of increasing financing support for real estate enterprises and further supporting real estate enterprises to reduce risks have been released.
After the symposium on the 17th, the market has increased the discussion on the "three not less than" bank real estate loans proposed by the regulator, that is, the growth rate of each bank's own real estate loans is not lower than the average real estate loan growth rate of the banking industry, the growth rate of corporate loans to non-state-owned real estate enterprises is not lower than the real estate growth rate of the Bank, and the growth rate of personal mortgages of non-state-owned real estate enterprises is not lower than the mortgage growth rate of the Bank.
On the 21st, it was reported that in order to further improve the financing support for the real estate industry, the regulatory authorities are drafting a white list of real estate enterprises, and 50 state-owned and private real estate enterprises with normal operations will be included.
Towards the end of the month, a number of banks convened a symposium for real estate companies, and the market's expectations for the landing of relevant rumors continued to rise. According to the official news and media reports of the bank, Zheshang Bank, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of China have recently held symposiums on real estate enterprises, mainly focusing on the financing needs of real estate enterprises.
Taking CCB as an example, representatives of six real estate companies, including Longfor Group, Vanke Group, Xincheng Holdings, Binjiang Group, Midea Real Estate and Dahua Group, shared the market situation, difficulties and challenges, as well as the coping strategies of enterprises. The company said that the state has recently introduced a series of support policies, and the financing environment has gradually improved, but it is still facing phased difficulties and tight liquidity, and put forward relevant suggestions and demands on improving the financing environment for real estate enterprises.
Bank of Communications also held a symposium on real estate enterprises on the 27th, inviting a total of 15 real estate companies to carry out "face-to-face" exchanges, including industry situation analysis, further strengthening bank-enterprise cooperation, exploring new models of real estate development, and meeting the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination, etc., including credit lines, bond issuance and investment, "three major projects", supply chain finance, cross-border business, etc.
Earlier, on the 22nd, Zheshang Bank held a symposium with representative real estate enterprises, which was attended by more than 20 representative real estate enterprises from inside and outside Zhejiang Province.
Following the relevant discussions of the regulatory authorities, the report also mentioned that it is necessary to improve the macro-prudential management of real estate finance, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination, and do not hesitate to lend, withdraw or cut off loans for real estate enterprises in normal operation. Continue to make good use of the "second arrow" to support private real estate enterprises to issue bonds for financing. Support real estate enterprises to raise reasonable equity through the capital market. According to the city's policies, we should make good use of the policy toolbox to better support the demand for rigid and improved housing, accelerate the construction of the "three major projects" such as affordable housing, and build a new model of real estate development.
CCB said that after the discussion, CCB and representatives of real estate enterprises exchanged views, communicated information and enhanced trust. In the future, the bank will better support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises, increase domestic and overseas linkage services and mother-child synergy for normal real estate enterprises, and help enterprises improve liquidity through a full range of financial services such as credit support, investment banking services, bond investment, extension and adjustment of repayment arrangements. For the suggestions and demands put forward by the participating real estate enterprises, CCB will carefully absorb and study and continue to optimize its products and services.
The Bank of Communications proposed to provide financial support services to real estate enterprises in the public sector through the "3+2" mechanism of three specializations and two specializations, and will do a good job in the field of retail credit around the housing scene. Among them, the "three specializations" include the establishment of special work classes, the creation of exclusive approval channels, and the implementation of special plans for balance sheet improvement; "Dual" refers to the "three major projects" of supporting the financing of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems and promoting the construction of affordable housing, the transformation of urban villages, and the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes.
How to land? What is the impact on banks?
According to market news, under the overall guidance of supervision, a new round of bank-enterprise communication, including symposiums and door-to-door surveys, is currently advancing. However, the reporter learned from a local branch of a large state-owned bank that there is no list of 50 real estate companies and the official notice of "three not less than", and the symposium and research activities are more concentrated in the secondary branches, and other branches are ultimately only responsible for the implementation of the landing.
The person told reporters that a new round of financing support policies for real estate enterprises has been brewing for a long time, but the early practice is not as expected, because of concerns about the market prospects, the overall enthusiasm of financial institutions is not high, and some banks have even suspended new real estate loans to the public. Regarding the implementation of the quantitative policy of this rumor, the person believes that the specific effect remains to be seen.
A number of industry insiders expressed such concerns to reporters. From the policy point of view, since last year, the supervision has focused on the "three arrows" to guide financial institutions to strengthen the financing support of real estate enterprises. Judging from the "first arrow" credit support, the effect still needs to be strengthened.
According to central bank data, as of the end of the third quarter of this year, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.19 trillion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year, the same as in August, and the downward trend of growth has stabilized. The growth rate of real estate loans was 8.1 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year, 7.11 percentage points lower than the growth rate of various loans, and decreased by 1.333 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 8821.13 billion yuan. Among them, the balance of real estate development loans was 17.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0%, and the growth rate was 3.38 percentage points higher than that at the end of the previous year, and the balance of personal housing loans was 42.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, and the growth rate was 4.<> percentage points lower than that at the end of the previous year.
However, the biggest difference between this policy and the previous period is that it puts forward the quantitative requirements of "three not less than" in market rumors, especially compared with the "three red lines" in the early stage, the signal significance is obvious. Founder Securities recently released a research report pointing out that compared with the "three arrows", "three not less than" is more landable.
An institutional source pointed out that considering that the growth rate of real estate loans is at a low level as a whole, and the increase in mortgage loans mainly depends on the recovery of market demand, from the perspective of total volume, simply meeting the first of the "three not less than" does not require a particularly large credit increase. On the other hand, judging from the current news, the real estate companies participating in this round of supervision and bank discussions are still dominated by central state-owned enterprises and head private real estate enterprises, and the list of 50 real estate companies that the market is concerned about has not yet been determined.
However, the agency believes that the signal significance of the policy to boost industry and market confidence is better than the significance of quantification itself. Specific to the bank's implementation of the momentum, the person pointed out that in recent years, in the context of the "asset shortage" of sluggish credit demand, the banking industry, especially the large state-owned banks, has always been in the credit support power of high-quality head real estate enterprises.
The person in charge of a local branch of a large state-owned bank in East China told reporters that the bank has always had credit support for central state-owned enterprises and high-quality private real estate enterprises, including development loans, but customers are mainly concentrated in Poly, Longhu and other high-quality real estate enterprises, "as long as there is financing demand, it is supported." The above-mentioned institutions pointed out that it is expected that the policy will still be easier to land in the head real estate enterprises and first- and second-tier cities.
Judging from the data of the semi-annual report, after a round of industry adjustment, the differentiation trend of banks' credit allocation in the real estate sector has intensified. From the perspective of real estate loans to the public, as of the end of June this year, among the large state-owned banks, joint-stock banks and major urban and rural commercial banks, the four major banks of industry and agriculture and China Construction still maintained a growth rate of more than 6%, the postal savings bank of China with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.37%, and the bank of communications with a growth rate of 2.2%. During the same period, the growth rate of corporate real estate loans of listed banks such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (-6.22%), Huaxia Bank (-4.15%), China Merchants Bank (-7.10%), Bank of Hangzhou (-4.10%), China Everbright Bank (-2.8%), Ping An Bank (-2.7%), China CITIC Bank (-4.2%), Zheshang Bank (-9.2%), and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (-8.2%) decreased significantly.
In terms of mortgage loans, most banks, including Bank of Nanjing (-9.4%), Minsheng Bank (-5.7%), Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (-4.5%), Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (-4.3%), and Changshu Bank (-3.2%), saw year-on-year declines. Among the large state-owned banks, only the Postal Savings Bank maintained a positive year-on-year growth rate of 4.2%.
Founder Securities believes that at present, it is seen that the participating real estate companies are basically private real estate enterprises, which reflects the implementation of the bank's guidance on supporting the financing of real estate enterprises by the three departments "without discrimination". On November 11, it was reported that Country Garden was invited to participate in a symposium on real estate enterprises organized by a large state-owned bank, and it is also the only "risk-out" real estate company invited to participate in the current public information. However, according to the reporter's understanding from people familiar with the matter, the relevant news is untrue.
In addition, according to the reporter's understanding from some industry insiders, for the new round of real estate support policies, it is necessary to fully communicate and understand between regulatory authorities, banks and enterprises, and finally do not rule out the possibility of promoting the implementation in the form of industry initiatives.