The added value of industries above designated size in the country increased by 4% year-on-year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and the per capita disposable income of residents in the country increased by 6.3% year-on-year in nominal terms...... On October 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released the operation of the national economy in the first three quarters of 18. According to preliminary calculations, the GDP in the first three quarters was 2023 billion yuan, an increase of 913027.5% year-on-year at constant prices. Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in terms of month-on-month growth, the growth rate in the third quarter of this year was 2.1%, 3.0 percentage points faster than the second quarter, and growth continued to recover.

There are now positive changes in many areas and indicators

This year is the first year of our country's economic recovery from the three-year impact of the pandemic. Judging from the operation of the data in the first three quarters, the national economy has withstood the downward pressure brought by the intertwining of risk challenges from abroad and multiple domestic factors, and has generally continued to recover. Especially from the situation in the third quarter, the overall recovery of the economy has become more obvious, and some positive changes have occurred in many fields and indicators.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year-on-year, of which 4.9% in the third quarter, down from the year-on-year growth rate in the second quarter, mainly because of the increase in the comparative base last year. Sheng Laiyun said, "The second quarter of last year was a quarter in which the impact of the epidemic in our country was more serious, and the GDP growth rate in that quarter was only 0.4% year-on-year, but the economic growth rate in the third quarter of last year has rebounded to 3.9%. So in the third quarter of this year, if the impact of the base is deducted, the average growth rate for the two years is 4.4%, which is 1.1 percentage points faster than the second quarter."

In addition, the average national urban survey unemployment rate in the first three quarters was 5.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year, and improving month by month. The average survey unemployment rate for the third quarter was 5.2 per cent, compared to 9 per cent in September.

On the consumption side, in September, the consumer price index rose 9.0% month-on-month, flat year-on-year, and the average year-on-year increase in the first three quarters was 2.0% year-on-year. The PPI of industrial ex-factory prices has narrowed for three consecutive months, falling 4.3% year-on-year in September, nearly 9 percentage points narrower than the lowest point in June, which indicates that the total domestic demand is stable and improving.

Service consumption recovered faster

In order to reflect the changes in the consumer market more comprehensively, the National Bureau of Statistics has recently optimized, adjusted and improved the statistical method and system of trade and economy, in addition to continuing to improve the statistical method of total retail sales of consumer goods, a new statistical monitoring system for the service consumption market has been added.

The total retail sales of consumer goods mainly reflect the retail transactions of physical goods, as well as the consumption of some services in accommodation and catering. However, with the social and economic development, especially industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading, service consumption is accelerating, and the proportion of consumption is increasing.

In the first three quarters, the added value of the service industry increased by 6% year-on-year. Among them, the added value of accommodation and catering industry, information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, transportation, warehousing and postal services, and financial industry increased by 14.4%, 12.1%, 9.5%, 7.5% and 7% respectively. In September, the service industry production index increased by 9.6% year-on-year, 9.0 percentage points faster than the previous month, and the growth rate rebounded for two consecutive months. Among them, the production indices of accommodation and catering, information transmission, software and information technology services, transportation, warehousing and postal services increased by 1.2%, 17.7% and 11.3% respectively. From January to August, the operating income of service enterprises above designated size in the country increased by 9.3% year-on-year. In September, the business activity index of the service sector was 1.8%, up 7.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the business activity expectation index was 9.50%. Among them, the business activity index of water transportation, postal services, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, money and financial services and other industries is in the high economic range of more than 9%.

Sheng Laiyun pointed out that the rapid growth of service retail is mainly related to the development environment in the past two years, last year was also a year with a relatively large impact of the epidemic, under the impact of the epidemic, the impact is on the contact service industry, including accommodation, catering, transportation, etc., so the impact on service retail sales is relatively large. After the transition of prevention and control this year, economic operation has returned to normal, and the service industry has benefited the most, especially the contact service industry, with a large increase in travel, hot catering, and relatively rapid recovery of service consumption.

The decline in real estate investment narrowed

The year-on-year decrease of 9.1% is the decline in national real estate development investment in the first nine months of this year, and the total amount of 9,87269.66279 billion yuan is not much after the epidemic is liberalized and investment recovers. Among them, residential investment was 8,4.<> billion yuan, down <>.<>%.

"On the optimistic note, the decline in national real estate development investment so far this year began to slow down a little in June." Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Research Institute, pointed out that the declines in January-April, January-May, January-June, January-July, January-August and January-September this year were 6.1%, 4.1%, 5.1%, 6.1%, 7.1% and 8.1% respectively.

Yan Yuejin said, "Although the data has been declining, the cumulative range of a single month has narrowed from a peak of 5 in May to 1.0, indicating that although the market is still down, there are also positive signals." However, what worries the market is that in September, when there was a mortgage and no loan, this data still failed to achieve positive growth, and still dragged down the cumulative data to continue to decline by 3.9%.

Looking specifically at the start data, from January to September, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 1 million square meters, down 9.815688% year-on-year. Among them, the residential construction area was 7,1.574250 million square meters, down 7.4%. Among them, the newly started area of housing was 72123.23 million square meters, down 4.52512%. In terms of subdivision, the newly started residential area was 23.9 million square meters, down 48705.19%. The completed area of housing was 8.35319 million square meters, an increase of 20.1%. Among them, the completed area of residential buildings was <>.<> million square meters, an increase of <>.<>%.

Summarizing the national real estate market data from January to September, experts believe that various indicators, especially sales-side indicators, have shown some positive signals, which are worthy of affirmation, further indicating that the positive release of existing policy effects will also help to further stabilize market expectations.

I am confident that I will achieve my goals for the whole year

In the first three quarters, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.2% year-on-year, which laid a very good foundation for achieving the expected target of about 5% for the whole year. According to preliminary estimates, if the expected target for the whole year is to be completed, as long as the growth rate in the fourth quarter is more than 4.4%, it can ensure the completion of the expected target of about 5% for the whole year. Sheng Laiyun said that from this point of view, it is very confident that it will achieve the expected target for the whole year.

On the one hand, from the perspective of the economic trend in the fourth quarter, the economic operation will continue to recover to the good trend. From the perspective of the first three quarters, whether it is production or demand, whether from the real economy expectations, or from the perspective of the real economy operating conditions, it is recovering to the good, the economic operation is inertia, I believe that the fourth quarter will continue to maintain a stable and upward trend.

On the other hand, the effects of a series of policies and measures introduced in the early stage to stabilize growth will continue to appear. With the gradual implementation of the policy, the positive effect will be further released. Last year, due to the epidemic, GDP growth in the fourth quarter was 2.9%, so the base in the fourth quarter of this year was relatively low.

Sheng Laiyun said that based on the above judgment, the economy will continue to recover in the fourth quarter, generally maintain a recovery trend, and is very confident in achieving the expected target of 5% for the whole year.

Comprehensive report by Beijing Business Daily