Gold prices on a "roller coaster"

Now it's not fragrant to buy gold

Text/Yangcheng Evening News reporter Huang Yinglin Photo/Yangcheng Evening News reporter Yan Jincheng

"On September 9, I bought a 22.30-gram gold bracelet in Chow Tai Fook, and the gold price was 84 yuan per gram at that time, and who knew that it would fall to 612 yuan in just over half a month." Looking at the falling gold price for several days, Mr. Lin, a Guangzhou citizen who bought at a high point, shouted "regret buying early".

Recently, gold prices seem to have staged a "roller coaster" market, the international gold price has fallen for 9 consecutive trading days, and the domestic market gold price has also fallen, and has rebounded again in recent days. So, is it still a good time to buy gold? Some insiders said that the demand for gold market has not been greatly affected, and it is recommended that consumers adopt a small batch investment strategy, and do not blindly follow the trend to chase the rise and kill.

Domestic jewelry gold prices pulled back from a high level

Since the beginning of this year, the price of gold has continued to soar, setting off a "sweeping" boom. However, just a week before the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday, domestic gold prices retreated, especially in RMB-denominated spot gold prices. Data show that by the last trading day before the holiday (September 9), the continuous trading price of spot gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange returned to below 28 yuan per gram, down 450.5% from the previous week's market quotation, the largest weekly decline in more than three years.

During the visit, the Yangcheng Evening News reporter noticed that most of the gold jewelry prices in major gold stores returned to within 590 yuan per gram. For example, Guangzhou Dongshan Department Store jewelry gold previously reached 9 yuan / gram on September 27, and has dropped to 610 yuan / gram on October 10, and the quotation on October 1 is 591 yuan / gram.

In addition, the price of gold jewellery for jewelry brands, including Chow Tai Fook, has also declined, with gold (jewelry and ornaments) falling from a high of 9 yuan / gram in mid-September to only 615 yuan / gram, a drop of 588 yuan in nearly a month, which has made many investors and consumers who started early call "meat pain".

Does the decline in gold prices affect the public's buying enthusiasm? Dai Chongye, manager of the business department of Guangzhou Dongshan Department Store, told reporters, "During the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day this year, Dongbai gold sales increased by nearly 30% compared with the same period last year, and the sales situation was quite strong, and there were many orders of tens of thousands of yuan, mainly due to the short-term decline in gold prices, superimposed on the Golden Week holiday sales season and the government's distribution of consumption coupons." ”

Dai Chongye also said that even after the "double festival" promotion ends, many neighbors still come to inquire and buy gold. "The short fluctuation of gold prices is actually a good time for citizens to buy jewelry gold and invest in gold bars. Some customers are still very calm, taking advantage of the low price to buy large necklaces and lucky locks for their grandchildren; Some customers choose to 'stand still' and take a wait-and-see attitude. ”

Why the international gold price "fell endlessly"

Why has the gold price been "falling endlessly" recently? Analysts believe that the previous plunge in domestic gold prices coincided with the continuous correction of international gold prices. Taking London gold (spot gold) as an example, it has fallen for nine consecutive trading days from September 9 to October 25, of which London gold once fell to $10.5 / oz on October 9, hitting a new low in nearly seven months. It was not until October 10 that it finally stopped falling, slightly rising 3.1814%. In the following trading days, there was a slight pull, and as of 7:7 on October 10, the London gold price had rebounded above $6 an ounce.

In this regard, Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with reporters that there were two main reasons for the decline in international gold prices some time ago: on the one hand, affected by the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates in November and the intensification of the US government's budget expenditure game in the new fiscal year, the recent sharp rise in U.S. bond yields, and the rise in U.S. bond yields mean that the opportunity cost of holding gold has risen, and the two have basically shown a negative correlation trend in the past. The US dollar is the main denominated currency of international gold, and the appreciation of the US dollar has inhibited the trend of gold prices.

On the other hand, fears of a global and US recession have eased. Recent economic data from the United States has been relatively stable, fears of a recession have been temporarily eased, and risk aversion has weakened its support for gold prices.

As for the rebound in gold prices in recent days, Wang Youxin said that it may be related to the increase in risk aversion caused by increased geopolitical risks. "As international oil prices fluctuate higher, concerns about the accelerating downturn of the global economy have risen again, causing international gold prices to reverse the downward trend." In addition, with the improvement of the domestic economic recovery momentum and the improvement of market sentiment, the domestic gold price has gradually converged to the international gold price. ”

Experts recommend investing in small batches

As the price of gold continues to pullback, it also makes the public wonder, is now a good time to buy gold?

According to the current offline sales situation, Dai Chongye is optimistic about the trend of gold prices, risk aversion has increased, and factors such as the peak gold consumption season in the fourth quarter may support gold prices to turn around slightly and slowly rise.

Wang Youxin holds the same view, from the follow-up trend, gold prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term driven by risk aversion. However, it is necessary to pay attention to changes in the international situation and the impact of oil price trends on inflation and monetary policy expectations in advanced economies, which will amplify the volatility of gold prices.

Looking forward to the gold market, Zhu Zhigang, vice president and chief analyst of the Guangdong Gold Association, believes that although the high price of gold has fallen, consumers' "holding costs" have decreased, and market demand for wedding jewelry and investment gold bars is still strong. In the long run, the possibility of rising gold prices at home and abroad is still available.

Zhu Zhigang suggested: "Every time the gold price falls is an opportunity to buy, but do not blindly chase the rise and kill, you should adopt a small amount of batch investment strategy according to the actual market." If the gold price is more than 20 yuan higher than your expectations, you can sell a part; If it is lower than the expected 10-20 yuan, you can buy a part to reduce the investment risk. In addition, it is also necessary to continue to pay attention to the difference between domestic and foreign prices, and if the difference is relatively large, it is necessary to be cautious when buying gold. ”

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The global central bank's "gold panning" is not stopping

Although the international gold price has been volatile in recent times, the pace of central banks increasing their holdings of gold reserves has been orderly.

The data shows that the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months. On October 10, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released data showing that as of the end of September, gold reserves reached 7.9 million ounces (about 7046.2191 tons) of official reserve assets, up 55,84 ounces (about 26.12 tons) from the previous month, and gold reserves have increased for 11 consecutive months, accounting for 4% of China's total official reserve assets. This is the first time that China's central bank's gold reserves have stood at the 7000 million ounce mark.

At the same time, the global central bank gold buying fever has continued to heat up this year. The World Gold Council reported on October 10 that global central bank gold reserves increased by 9t in August, up 8% from July. Among them, the central banks of China, Poland and Turkey are once again the main official buyers of gold. In addition, no central bank sold off gold reserves significantly that month.

Some insiders believe that the central bank's reasonable increase in gold reserves will help diversify risks, enhance the stability of official reserve assets, and enhance the resilience of the development of the financial system. The above report also shows that "entering the fourth quarter, the total annual gold reserves of global central banks will maintain a strong rise, and it is believed that the long-term trend of healthy growth in gold demand still exists." ”

The analysis believes that for a country's central bank, reserve asset allocation is more focused on long-term value, while the market tends to short-term behavior. In the context of the still complex international situation, the central bank increased its holdings of gold to diversify and rationally allocate reserve assets and enhance the resilience of external risks, which is significantly different from the investment behavior of institutions or individuals.

The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves, mainly to comply with the global development trend, optimize and diversify the asset structure of official reserves, improve the stability of official reserves, and enhance the resilience of external risks; The decline in US dollar credit, coupled with the significant increase in global political and economic uncertainty, a reasonable increase in gold reserves will help diversify risks, enhance the stability of official reserve assets, and enhance the resilience of the financial system. (Huang Yinglin) (Yangcheng Evening News)