• Money seeks refuge in gold and oil after the outbreak of the armed conflict between Israel and Palestine

The tense calm with which the markets have lived in recent days is coming to an end. Investors have launched to seek refuge in gold, in the traditional (the gold, which beat $ 1,900), but also in black gold, as oil is known, which rises 6% in the week and way to $ 90 per barrel. Only on Friday its price soared more than 4%, and the same happened with the American West Texas, which exceeded 86 dollars. Neither Israel nor Palestine are major producers, but the key to everything is that the conflict takes breadth and crosses borders.

"Hamas's attacks on Israeli territory, ironically coinciding with the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, have occurred in a period of exceptionally high oil prices and a completely different industry, but they are likely to have bullish implications on crude, and the big question is for how long," Citi analysts ask. It is taken for granted that the White House, historically allied with Israel, will impose new sanctions on Iranian exports. It is the eighth largest oil producer in the world and, in addition, a great financial support for Hamas fighters. The Wall Street Journal took for granted a few days ago that Iran has backed the Hamas attack that "had been preparing for many weeks," according to the newspaper.

Crude oil has been caught with the changed step. It had been falling for several weeks in the expectation of lower demand worldwide. But it has not been possible. In case the conflict escalates to other countries, analysts are clear that the price will shoot above $ 100 because in the puzzle of world oil there are fewer and fewer actors. Keep in mind that the market was already tense with Russia (and the sanctions imposed in the face of the invasion of Ukraine) off the map. It is the third largest producer of crude oil, with a tenth of the global quota. If Iran now enters the equation, and Saudi Arabia above all – the second largest producer – this affects another 16% of the total.

But while the market looks to oil, natural gas is the one that has really imploded. Its price shoots up 53% in six days. And this is because, after Russia, banned from the international scene, Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are among the largest producers and the same pattern is repeated. The CEO of JP Morgan has dared to warn in a chat with journalists that "it could be the most dangerous time we have seen in decades."

Iran is one of the flanks involved in the conflict, it remains to be seen how far. Another territory to consider is Saudi Arabia. The last page he had written at the diplomatic level was a principle of agreement with Israel, where Washington acted as mediator to hang one more medal. But the escalation of war has thrown this option to the ground. Goldman Sachs, in the least bad of scenarios, considering that Saudi Arabia "keeps its production of 9 million barrels per day stable in 2024, would cause an increase in the price of Brent to 104 dollars" within twelve months. But if the conflict expands, Bloomberg Economics estimates that the repercussions on black gold will be much more noticeable. Its experts calculate an oil in the 150 dollars and a strong recession in the economy, with a fall of 1.7% globally. They are higher than those seen in the middle of the financial crisis of 2008, when they touched $ 140.

  • Petroleum
  • Israel