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Iran: 'The authorities continue the repression and open some doors internationally'

While Iran's domestic politics are causing outrage, the Islamic Republic is trying to break out of its diplomatic isolation. Reconciliation with Saudi Arabia, resumption of ties with Morocco and Egypt, exchange of prisoners with the United States... How to understand this change in foreign policy? What are the regime's motivations? Interview with Houchang Hassan-Yari, professor of political science at the Royal Military College of Canada and expert on Iran.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (L) meets with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (R) in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, August 18, 2023. VIA REUTERS - IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY/WANA

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RFI: While over the past year a large wave of protests seems to weaken the regime of the Islamic Republic inside the country, relations with the outside, especially with the countries of the region, seem to be improving against all expectations. How can this situation be explained?

Houchang Hassan-Yari: It is not against all expectations that the improvement of relations with certain countries in the region is occurring. I would say that it is because of the weaknesses of the Iranian regime, under the pressure of the protesters who continue their revolt. In the country, the economic situation is disastrous. The political situation is exceedingly difficult for the regime, because even the people who defended it, the same revolutionaries who were part of the government in the past, began to distance themselves. Thus, in Iran, the economic, political and social situation is deplorable. And internationally, isolation is very difficult, sanctions are extremely effective and there is also the issue of corruption with many embezzlement in Iran. All these factors weaken the regime both domestically and internationally. To get out of this isolation and pressure, instead of acting internally and improving relations between the regime and the people, the authorities prefer to continue the repression and open some doors internationally.

Is improving relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates a solid achievement or a façade of diplomatic adjustment?

It is above all a façade relaxation. With regard to improving relations with the countries of the region, we must be careful. It is for a very practical reason that the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is internationally isolated, is seeking change. It began to consider different options with the help of China, so the meeting with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia happened. Saudi Arabia also needed this improvement. We know that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has a plan to boost his country's economy. To do this, it must eliminate any external threat and focus on it. So far, the main threat comes from the Houthi rebels. In March 2022, the Houthis attacked the Saudi Aramco refinery with drones. This attack created a huge panic in Saudi Arabia and internationally, as Saudi Aramco is the world's largest oil exporter. So the Saudis don't want to see the same type of attacks repeated. That is why, by addressing the Islamic Republic through China, they are trying to ward off this threat from the Houthis, because Iran has a lot of influence over them. In this context, the Saudis have agreed to restore relations with the Iranian regime, which is extremely happy about it. This gives him some credibility and allows him to tell his own people that he is not isolated and that he is establishing good relations with his neighbours, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Therefore, the need is generated by both the Islamic Republic and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. However, I am very pessimistic about this rapprochement, which is not, I believe, based on a desire on both countries to do so. They are forced to do so, which is why the attack on Monday, September 25 [along the border between Yemen and Saudi Arabia, editor's note], in which Houthi rebels killed two Bahraini officers, shows two things: either the Islamic Republic has lost its control over the Houthis, or the Houthis do what they want without following the line established by Tehran. Now that another attack has taken place by the Houthis on Saudi territory, it really shows how fragile and vulnerable this rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran is.

What is to be gained by countries resuming talks with Iran?

When we say that countries are talking to the Islamic Republic, it is important to specify what kind of discussion it is. These discussions are not normal. The European Union, for example, continues to talk to Iran, but not in a friendly context. They are talking to discuss the nuclear issue, but also in the hope of forcing the Islamic Republic to change its behavior inside the country. Last year, the European Parliament adopted by a large majority a resolution calling on the European Council to list the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist group. Relations between the European Union and the Iranian regime are therefore not normal. They are not based on mutual respect and interest. For their part, the Americans are also addressing Iran because of the nuclear issue, and not to sign new economic cooperation agreements or political exchanges.

As for Morocco and Egypt, these countries came after Saudi Arabia. They see that Saudi Arabia's rapprochement with the Islamic Republic is a kind of appeasement. They, too, want to re-establish their relations. And here too, I'm not sure that the Islamic Republic really wants to have a normal relationship with Cairo or Rabat. What is really important and forms the basis of the Islamic Republic's foreign policy is the expansion of Shiite influence. This is what happened when in 2013 civilian flights were restored between Iran and Egypt after more than thirty years of interruption: several Egyptians were invited and many, if not all, of them were paid in one way or another by the Islamic Republic to travel to Iran. When they were in Iran, the authorities showed them a lot of propaganda about Shiism. In other words, the Iranian regime wanted to contribute to the growth of Egypt's tiny Shia minority. That is why they are trying to normalize their relationship with this country.

Some relations are still based on mutual interest, as with Russia for example...

It is obvious that both the Russian government and the Iranian government are sanctioned. They are under a lot of pressure. Putin cannot leave Russian territory because he is accused of crimes against humanity. So having relations with Russia is not necessarily a positive for Iran, but the regime has no other choice. As the Islamic Republic is isolated, it has to go to other countries and they are very happy about that. Russia, for its part, has been using Iran as a card in its negotiations with the Americans and Europeans for several decades. This is what we see today with the war in Ukraine and the delivery of drones to Russia. There is also China that benefits from Iran because it may have another Muslim country on its client list. If we look at the issue of the Islamic Republic's foreign policy in more depth, we see that the situation is disastrous, because foreign policy does not help the Iranian people in any way.

Moreover, the Islamic Republic is now a member of what I call "the club of dictators", where the Chinese leader, the Russian leader, the Venezuelan leader, some South American dictators ... In this sense, we must be careful when we say that the regime has relations with many countries. We need to look at each individual case to understand the nature of that relationship and the context in which it takes place.

On the other hand, Iran seems determined not to give in to international sanctions on nuclear proliferation. Why this deliberate refusal to collaborate?

The answer is extremely simple: the government is looking for the nuclear bomb. If a country seeks or wants to have a nuclear programme for peaceful purposes, it opens the door to the IAEA, which is part of the United Nations, and asks for its help. However, Rafael Grossi, the agency's director, said he was not satisfied with the Islamic Republic's behavior because it is not collaborating within the framework of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. In recent years, when IAEA inspectors found traces of weapons-grade enriched uranium at some of the Islamic Republic's facilities, the Islamic Republic initially denied everything. There are also many nuclear facilities, but the Iranians are not clarifying their true agenda. That is why the IAEA first sent the dossier to the UN Security Council, which imposed a number of sanctions on Iran. The regime has a secret agenda, it does not talk about it at the IAEA, and it is willing to be sanctioned rather than transparent.

The Iranian diaspora is demanding an end to all discussions with the Iranian regime and more external pressure on Tehran. Are some countries sensitive to this?

Westerners are extremely naïve. They don't understand the nature of the Islamic Republic. In addition, the Islamic Republic has created many lobbies in Europe and North America. These lobbies tell the Europeans that it is better to talk to the Islamic Republic in order to control it. This is absurd, because if we look at the behavior of the Islamic Republic, we see that there is anything but normality. So Westerners do not understand the nature of the regime and think they are dealing with a normal country. This is why dissidents and the diaspora are asking Europeans to sever relations with the Islamic Republic because it is not sincere in what it says. However, I do not know why, for example, Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, continues to say that we need to talk to them. I can assure you that if all former European, American and Canadian hostages in Iran were released today, they would be immediately replaced by others. This is a matter for the Islamic Republic. It makes money and Westerners are willing to pay for it. Why doesn't the Islamic Republic have Chinese or Russians in prison? What for? Europeans must ask themselves this question.

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