In the next 3 years, electricity demand will maintain rigid growth, experts said-
Accelerate the exploration of safe and reliable alternatives to new energy
Reporter Wang Yichen
Recently, the General Institute of Electric Power Planning and Design released the "China Electric Power Development Report 2023", showing that in 2022, China's electricity demand will grow steadily, and the electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 8.6 trillion kilowatt hours, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year, and the electricity consumption structure will continue to be optimized, maintaining the trend of shifting electricity consumption from secondary production to tertiary production and residential electricity consumption. In the next three years, the national electricity demand will still maintain rigid growth, and it is expected that the electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 3.2025 trillion to 9.8 trillion kilowatt-hours in 10.
While the demand for electricity is growing, China's power supply guarantee capacity has been further enhanced. According to the report, by the end of 2022, the total installed capacity of power generation in the country reached 25.6 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%; The national power generation capacity was 8.7 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%; The scale of "West-to-East Power Transmission" is about 3 million kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. The pace of green and low-carbon transformation of electricity has accelerated. In 2, the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation will be about 2022 million kilowatts, accounting for 1.5% of the total new installed capacity; The new non-fossil energy power generation capacity is about 83 billion kWh, accounting for 0.2500% of the total new power generation.
Power system flexibility continues to improve. Liu Qiang, vice president of the Electric Power Development Research Institute of the General Institute of Electric Power Planning and Design, said that in the first two years of the 4th Five-Year Plan period, the total scale of coal power "three reforms" transformation exceeded 85 million kilowatts, completing 81% of the planning target. By the end of 2022, the installed capacity of pumped storage reached 4579.870 million kilowatts, and the cumulative scale of new energy storage was about 96.8 million kilowatts. The problem of new energy consumption continued to improve, and the utilization rate of wind power and photovoltaic in the country reached 98.3% and 3.<>%. In the next three years, focusing on the construction of new power systems, it is necessary to optimize the layout of conventional hydropower, pumped storage, wind power, solar power, nuclear power and coal power.
"Accelerating the planning and construction of a new energy system is the top priority of the current energy industry." Rao Jianye, vice president of the Clean Energy Research Institute of the General Institute of Electric Power Planning and Design, said that in the new energy system, the power system is in the central position, closely connecting primary energy and secondary energy, which can achieve flexible and efficient conversion between multiple energy sources, and is the central hub of the supply side and the consumption side. In the future, accelerating the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and abundant, cost-effective, coordinated supply and demand, flexible and intelligent new power system will be the top priority for China to build a new energy system.
The report predicts that from 2024 to 2025, the pressure on national power supply security will still be large. Extreme weather has significantly pushed up the power load, combined with the current power supply and power grid project commissioning progress, it is expected that there will be 2024 areas with tight power supply and demand in 14.
In the face of the rigid growth of power demand and the need to build a new power system, Liu Qiang believes that the level of safe and reliable replacement of new energy needs to be improved. At present, the large-scale development of new energy but the reliable capacity provided in actual operation does not exceed 5%, and most of them cannot provide moment of inertia, and have not yet formed a reliable replacement. In order to realize the reliable replacement requirements of power substitution + capacity substitution + safe and stable substitution, it is also necessary to actively apply "traditional technology + new technology (wind and solar power prediction technology, integrated control technology, new energy storage, load control technology, etc.)" to explore a variety of implementation modes.
In addition, the role of the national unified electricity market system cannot be ignored. Liu Qiang said that under the development needs of the change of the operating characteristics of the new power system, the rapid development of new energy, the urgent need for coordination of multiple contradictions, the safety and supply of electricity, and the effective connection of multiple markets, the construction of the national unified electricity market system is facing a new situation, and the construction of the national unified electricity market system is of great significance.
Liu Shiyu, vice president of the General Institute of Electric Power Planning and Design, said that the integration between industries will stimulate greater integrated innovation and activate the development potential of the industry, such as flexible DC microgrid, thermoelectric-cooled hydrogen multi-energy conversion, intelligent integrated regulation and other integrated application of technological innovation, will also drive the optimization and upgrading of the industrial chain of various traditional industries in the field of terminal energy use. (Economic Daily)