The general trend of high-quality economic development in China has not changed

Since the beginning of this year, some economic indicators have fluctuated, consumer prices have run at a low level, and the external environment has become more complex and severe, which has triggered some public opinion to worry about China's economic recovery and development prospects. To view China's economic situation, we should look at it comprehensively and dialectically in light of the changes in the stage of development; we should look at both "shape" and "trend," both "quantity" and "quality," and both "longitudinal" and "horizontal." Based on the analysis of different dimensions, although it is facing new difficulties and challenges from international and domestic sources, the trend of China's sustained economic recovery and overall recovery has not changed, the fundamentals of strong resilience, large potential and wide space have not changed, and the long-term trend of high-quality development is irreversible.

The "shape" of the economy fluctuates and the "trend" is still good, and stable growth is supported

Since the beginning of this year, the world economic recovery has been weak, the factors of instability and uncertainty have increased significantly, domestic demand has been insufficient, some enterprises have difficulties in operation, and the downward pressure on the economy has increased. In this context, the growth rate of some major economic indicators has fluctuated to a certain extent, but this does not mean that economic growth has stalled. In fact, after the major and decisive victory in epidemic prevention and control, economic recovery is a process of wave-like development and tortuous progress, and short-term fluctuations are inevitable. From the perspective of potential growth rate, production and demand power support, the national economy has maintained a recovery trend, and the overall recovery is supported.

First, from the perspective of potential growth rate, China's stable economic growth has inherent support. The potential growth rate is the optimal level of output growth that can be achieved under the effective allocation of various factors of production, and the actual economic growth rate usually fluctuates around the potential growth rate. From the perspective of China, the potential growth rate remained at a high level during the initial expansion period of economic development; With the change of development stage, the constraint of resource factors is enhanced, and the potential growth rate is reduced. However, compared with developed countries, the average GDP of Chinese is still low, the growth space is large, industrialization and urbanization have not yet been completed, the current scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading are steadily advancing, the high savings rate supports the continuous accumulation of capital, and the demographic dividend is accelerating the conversion to the talent dividend, which determines that the potential growth rate can still remain at a high level. Studies by many domestic institutions show that China's potential growth rate is about 5%-6% at this stage. From the actual operation situation, the actual growth rate of the economy not only depends on the potential growth rate, but also is subject to multiple constraints such as supply and demand. From 2020 to 2022, China's economy will grow at an average annual rate of 4.5%, which is significantly lower than the potential growth level, mainly due to the decline in market demand and poor circulation of the industrial chain under the epidemic conditions, which inhibits the growth of economic output. Since the beginning of this year, as the impact of the epidemic gradually fades, demand continues to recover, and constraints on supply are reduced, economic growth will naturally return to potential levels. In the first half of this year, China's economic recovery was more obvious, with GDP increasing by 5.5% year-on-year, higher than the average during the epidemic.

Second, from the perspective of production and supply, the recovery of the service industry has contributed significantly to economic growth. Since the 2019th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China's industrial transformation and upgrading has been steadily advanced, and economic growth has shifted from industry-driven to tertiary industrial synergy, of which the service industry has led the rise. In 54, the added value of the service industry accounted for 3.2012% of GDP, an increase of 8.8 percentage points over 3, and the driving force for economic growth reached 8.1 percentage points, 9.2020 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. In recent years, the service industry has been hit the hardest by the epidemic, and its growth has slowed down significantly, which is an important reason for slowing down economic growth. From 2022 to 4, the added value of the service industry will grow by an average of 2.2% per year, driving economic growth by an average of 3.2019 percentage points, 1.5 percentage points lower than in 3 before the epidemic. After the transition of epidemic prevention and control this year, the service industry recovered the fastest, contributing significantly to economic growth. In the first half of the year, the growth of the service industry drove economic growth by 6.2 percentage points, an increase of 6.66 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, and contributed 1.<>% to economic growth. From the perspective of the service industry, although the real estate market is still adjusting and the drive for economic growth is weakening, the contact-type gathering service industry such as tourism, catering, and transportation has recovered relatively quickly, and the growth momentum of modern service industries such as information transmission is good, which hedges the downward impact of real estate to a certain extent. In the next stage, the recovery of the service industry will not change, and the drive for economic growth is expected to remain at a high level.

Third, from the perspective of market demand, consumption is the "ballast stone" for stable economic growth. As China's economy shifts to a stage of high-quality development, the construction of a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the main body and domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other has accelerated, and economic growth has shifted from mainly relying on investment and export to relying on consumption, investment and export synergy, and the role of consumption in driving economic growth has been significantly improved. In 2019, the final consumption rate reached 55.8%, an increase of 2012.4 percentage points over 7; the contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 3.5 percentage points, 1.8 percentage points higher than the gross capital formation. However, affected by the epidemic, the role of consumption in driving economic growth has decreased significantly in recent years. From 2020 to 2022, the average pull of final consumption expenditure to economic growth fell to 1.9 percentage points. Since the beginning of this year, affected by the contraction of external demand and the decline in real estate, the pull of exports and investment on economic growth has weakened, but the economy and society have fully resumed normal operation, consumption has continued to recover, and the pulling effect on economic growth has been improved, effectively making up for the impact of the decline in exports and investment. In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure drove economic growth by 4.2 percentage points, an increase of 3.4 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, while the total impact of net exports of goods and services and gross capital formation on economic growth fell by 0.5 percentage points. In particular, service consumption has an obvious role in driving economic growth, which is the main support for the recovery of consumption. In the next stage, with the acceleration of the construction of the new development pattern, the consumption capacity of residents is enhanced, the willingness to consume is improved, the role of consumption in driving economic growth is expected to increase, and the role of domestic consumption as a "ballast stone" will be further highlighted.

Fourth, from the perspective of international experience, China's economy is still in the stage of continuous release of growth potential. To analyze China's economic growth prospects, it is necessary to "look horizontally" and "horizontally", and observe the economic development process of other countries, especially catch-up economies, which is also a useful reference for studying and judging economic development. From the perspective of the development history of catch-up economies such as the "Asian Tigers" and high-income countries, when the per capita GDP is between US$1,2 and US$2,2015 (constant price in 1994), the economic development potential continues to be released, and the overall growth rate is relatively rapid, such as South Korea (2003-1962) and high-income countries (1976-6) GDP growth averages of 3.4% and 6.1% per year, respectively. At present, the average GDP of Chinese is 2,2015 US dollars (constant price in 2013), which is in the stage of continuous release of growth potential, as long as we firmly grasp the period of important strategic opportunities, focus on doing our own things well, and effectively respond to risks and challenges, China's economy is expected to maintain stable growth and continue to become the main force driving global economic growth. From 2019 to 30, China's economic growth contributed more than 2020% to global economic growth per year. From 2022 to 40, the average annual contribution rate will reach about <>%, injecting strong impetus into the global economic recovery.

The current low price increase is structural and phased, and will not fall into deflation

Since the beginning of this year, market prices have fallen, raising fears of deflation. In fact, the current decline in price growth is mainly structural and staged, and China's economic recovery is good, and the money supply is reasonable and abundant, which is obviously different from deflation in the economic sense. As the economy recovers steadily, demand strengthens, and the impact of short-term factors that drive down prices fades, prices are expected to gradually recover in the next stage.

First, the price decline shows obvious structural characteristics, and the core CPI is basically stable. Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year increase in the CPI (consumer price index) has generally shown a downward trend, rising 1.8% from January to August, down 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI has fluctuated downward since February, turning to a year-on-year decline of 1.4% in July, mainly due to the fall in food and energy prices, which turned to an increase of 2.7% in August. From the perspective of food prices, food prices from January to August rose by 0.3% year-on-year, affecting the CPI by about 8.0 percentage points, lower than the average contribution of about 1.1 percentage points in the same period of the past decade; of which pork and fresh vegetable prices fell by 8.1% and 4.0% respectively. From the perspective of energy prices, energy prices from January to August fell by 26.0% year-on-year, affecting the CPI by about 4.4 percentage points. In addition, factors such as price reduction promotions of some car companies and a high comparison base in the same period last year also dragged down CPI growth. Food and energy prices fluctuate greatly due to season, weather, geopolitics, etc., and the core CPI, excluding food and energy, is generally stable. From January to August, the core CPI rose 4.2% year-on-year, including 6.1% in August, maintaining a moderate upward trend.

Second, based on market supply and demand, monetary conditions and inflation expectations, prices will not continue to decline. Market price changes are mainly determined by supply and demand, but also by monetary conditions and inflation expectations. At present, China's supply and demand relationship is basically balanced, monetary credit is growing rapidly, inflation expectations are basically stable, and comprehensive research and judgment prices will not continue to decline. From the perspective of supply and demand, the economy continues to recover, demand expands steadily, and the consumption demand for services such as tourism and travel, culture and entertainment is accelerated, and the relationship between supply and demand is expected to continue to improve. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.8% year-on-year, and the retail sales of services increased by 7.0%. From the perspective of monetary conditions, prudent monetary policy is more precise and powerful, support for the real economy is increased, and monetary credit grows rapidly. At the end of August, the broad money supply (M_19) balance increased by 4.8% year-on-year, and the RMB loan balance increased by 2.10%. From the perspective of expectations, the production and operation expectations of enterprises and the inflation expectations of residents are basically stable, and they do not support the continuous decline in prices. In August, the expected index of manufacturing production and business activities was 6.11%, and the expected index of business activities in the service industry was 1.8%, both in the higher economic range. According to the People's Bank of China's second-quarter urban saver questionnaire survey, 55.6% of residents expect prices to remain "basically unchanged" or "rise" in the third quarter.

Third, from the perspective of economic fundamentals and macro policies, China will not have long-term Japanese-style deflation. With the recent downturn in prices and real estate, many fear that China could repeat Japan's long-term deflationary mistakes. After in-depth comparison, it is found that both in terms of development stage and policy response, China is significantly different from Japan when it is deflationary. From the perspective of economic fundamentals, in the 20s of the 90th century, Japan's per capita GDP has reached 3,2015 US dollars (constant price in 1992), ranking firmly among the developed countries, and the economic growth rate has slowed down significantly compared with the rapid development period, and the bursting of the bubble further aggravated the economic downturn, and the average annual growth of the Japanese economy from 1995 to 1 was only 0.1%. Sluggish economic growth and insufficient market demand are the root causes of Japan's deflationary situation. China is still the world's largest developing country, with a per capita GDP of about US$2,2015 (constant price in 20), with huge economic growth potential, and economic growth rate is significantly faster than that of major developed economies. From the perspective of the real estate market, at the end of the 80s of the 80th century, Japan's urbanization rate was close to 1995%, and the internal development momentum of the real estate market weakened. In response to the appreciation of the yen, the Japanese government implemented loose fiscal and monetary policies, resulting in a serious bubble in the real estate market, and as the bubble burst, real estate prices fell sharply, banks' non-performing loans increased sharply, and market demand shrank significantly. In 1990, new loans to the Japanese banking sector fell by more than 80 percent compared with 1992. From the perspective of China's situation, although the real estate market is currently in an adjustment period, urbanization has not yet been completed, residents' rigid and improved housing demand is still being released, coupled with the continuous optimization and adjustment of real estate regulation and control policies, the development of the real estate market still has good support. From the perspective of macro policy, the Japanese government faces shrinking market demand, serious deflation, slow response of monetary policy, insufficient fiscal policy stimulus, tight market liquidity, limited effect on expanding demand, and sluggish expectations of enterprises and residents. From 2000 to 3, Japan's broad money supply grew by only 6.<>% per year. Since the beginning of this year, the Chinese government has continuously lowered the policy interest rate, reduced the reserve requirement ratio, maintained reasonable and sufficient liquidity, focused on expanding total social demand, sustained growth in consumer investment, and gradually improved the economic cycle.

Fourth, prices are expected to gradually stabilize and rise in the later period. Looking forward to the next stage, with the expansion of market demand, the phased factors that affected the decline in prices in the early stage are eliminated, and prices are expected to gradually rise. In terms of food prices, pork prices rose 8.11% month-on-month in August, the first increase in nearly 4 months. With the cooler weather, the opening of schools and the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday, food consumption demand has increased, and food prices have shown a seasonal recovery. From the perspective of energy prices, energy prices rose 10.8% month-on-month in August, marking the second consecutive month. Recently, international crude oil prices have fluctuated upward, and the impact of energy prices on price declines will be significantly weakened. From the perspective of service prices, service consumption is more active, service prices in August increased by 2.5% month-on-month, rising for three consecutive months, superimposed on the holiday effect, service prices are expected to continue the upward momentum. From the recent situation, in August, the CPI turned from a year-on-year decline to an increase, and the month-on-month increase expanded, while the year-on-year decline in PPI continued to narrow and turned to an increase month-on-month, showing signs of stabilization or stopping.

The current employment pressure is mainly structural, and the overall employment situation is expected to remain stable

Employment is the biggest livelihood, the "barometer" of economic development, and the "ballast stone" of social stability. At present, the structural contradiction of employment in China is more prominent, and it is difficult for young people such as college graduates to find employment and enterprises to recruit coexist, on the one hand, the scale of college graduates has reached a record high; On the other hand, the shortage of skilled workers is prominent, and the recruitment rate of high-skilled talents remains above 2. However, at the same time, we must see that since the beginning of this year, the sustained recovery of the economy has led to the expansion of enterprise labor demand, the labor market has become more active, the rural migrant labor force has increased significantly, the employment situation has generally improved, and the urban survey unemployment rate has declined. In August, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 8.5%, 2.0 percentage points lower than the previous month and the same period last year. From January to August, 1.1 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, an increase of 8,924 year-on-year. At the end of July, 26.7 million people were working for poverty alleviation, exceeding the target of 3274 million. In the next stage, despite the pressure, there are still many favorable conditions for the employment situation to remain stable.

First, the expansion of economic scale brings about an increase in employment. Economic growth is the basis for stabilizing and expanding employment. As China enters a stage of high-quality development, the economic growth rate has slowed down, but the total economic volume has continued to expand, the economic increment is very considerable, and the absorption of employment will continue to increase. In the past five years, China's GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 5.5%, corresponding to an average annual economic increment of about 2.2020 trillion yuan (constant prices in 5), roughly equivalent to the annual economic output of a medium-sized country. In the first half of this year, GDP increased by 1.5% year-on-year, and the constant price economic increment reached 5.2 trillion yuan. From the perspective of the whole year, the economic increase is expected to expand compared with the previous year, and if labor productivity remains basically stable, the corresponding employment will increase compared with the previous year.

Second, industrial structure upgrading and expanding employment capacity. With the improvement of China's economic development level, the proportion of service industry in GDP has steadily increased, becoming the largest industry in the national economy. Compared with industry, the service industry has the characteristics of high labor intensity and large employment capacity, especially accommodation and catering, commerce and retail, transportation, culture, education and health, resident services and other industries have large labor demand and strong employment absorption ability. From 2018 to 2022, the added value of the service industry accounted for an average of 53.6% of GDP, and the average proportion of employees in the service industry to all employed persons was 47.2%, 18.6 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. Based on constant prices in 2015, the average number of employed people per million yuan of added value of the service industry from 2018 to 2022 is 24% higher than that of the secondary industry. International experience also shows that the employment efficiency of the tertiary industry is about 20% higher than that of the secondary industry. Since the beginning of this year, the service industry, especially the contact-type agglomeration service industry, has recovered relatively quickly, and the employment has been significantly enhanced, and the added value of the service industry accounted for 56.0% of GDP in the first half of the year, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, and the number of employed people in the service industry increased by more than 500 million year-on-year. At the same time, with the extension of the industry to the middle and high-end, new industries, new formats and new business models are booming, giving birth to new occupational needs such as Internet of Things engineering and technical personnel, big data engineering and technical personnel, and effectively expanding employment space. More than 1200 million people were employed in information transmission, software and information technology services this year.

Third, the release of policy dividends helps expand employment space. The Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the work of stabilizing employment, optimize and adjust policies and measures for stabilizing employment in a timely manner, and form a systematic and full-chain employment policy system of tax exemptions, fiscal incentives, and financial support. All regions and departments have stepped up the implementation of various measures for stabilizing employment, implemented support for job stabilization and incentive measures for job expansion, made every effort to promote the employment of key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers and difficult groups, expanded employment space through multiple channels, strengthened vocational skills training, and improved the level of employment services, creating favorable conditions for stable employment. From January to July this year, a total of 1.7 billion yuan of employment subsidy funds were issued, and the phased reduction of unemployment and work-related injury insurance premiums reduced the cost of enterprises by more than 606.1006 billion yuan, and the unemployment insurance fund spent 206.1 billion yuan on job stabilization. From January to August, 8.352 million urban unemployed people were re-employed.

Effectively respond to external risks and challenges, and the status of a major trading country remains solid

In recent years, the United States and other Western countries have accelerated the localization, nearshoreization, allies and de-risking of industrial chain and supply chain, which has impacted China's industrial chain and foreign trade, and intensified the concerns of all parties about China's economic and trade situation. Is China's position as the world's factory weakening? To answer this question, we need to observe China's economy and trade in the context of the evolution of the global industrial chain value chain. Generally speaking, despite certain challenges and pressures, China's status as a world factory is difficult to shake, and the development of foreign trade still has strong resilience and bright prospects.

First, China's share of global exports is relatively stable. From January to August, against the backdrop of sluggish global demand, China's exports of goods denominated in US dollars declined, but they were better than those of neighboring countries. In 1, the share of China's goods exports in the world will be 8.2022%, an increase of 14.4 percentage points over 2019, while the proportion of major developed economies has decreased to varying degrees. In the first half of this year, China's share of goods exports increased by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 0%, maintaining its position as the world's largest exporter of goods.

Second, China's important position in the global industrial chain has not changed. From the perspective of industrial chain, World Bank data shows that the added value of China's manufacturing industry in 2022 will be 4.98 trillion US dollars, accounting for 30.5% of the global manufacturing industry, ranking first in the world. From the perspective of value chain, China's share of total global value chain output in 2021 was 27.7%, which is higher than before the epidemic. The increase in the share of the value chain is mainly due to the rapid increase in the share of front-end (referring to the participation in high-tech content and high-value-added product research and development, design, etc.) while maintaining the share of the back-end value chain (referring to the processing and assembly links with low technology content and low added value by relying on resource endowments and labor to participate in the high-tech content and low-value-added links in recent years).

Third, the industrial chain connection between China and key regions has been continuously strengthened. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in 2022, China's total imports and exports of intermediate goods to ASEAN will be 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.2% over the previous year; The total import and export of intermediate goods to other RCEP member countries was 8.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5%. With the continuous strengthening of the regional connection of China's industrial chain, China's trade exchanges with countries and regions that jointly build the "Belt and Road", especially ASEAN and RCEP regions, have also become more active. From January to August this year, China's total imports and exports to ASEAN were 1.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, accounting for 1.6% of China's foreign trade in the same period; The import and export volume of countries jointly built under the "Belt and Road" increased by 15.2%, faster than the overall growth rate of foreign trade.

High-quality development has been steadily advancing, which strongly supports the sustained and healthy development of the economy

China's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage, and the analysis and judgment of the economic situation should not only look at the expansion of "quantity", but also look at the improvement of "quality". In recent years, all parties have maintained strategic concentration, implemented the new development concept in a complete, accurate and comprehensive manner, adhered to the direction of high-quality development without wavering, insisted on adjusting the structure and promoting transformation without slackening, China's economic development has not only achieved new results in the reasonable growth of the amount of promotion, but also achieved new progress in the effective improvement of quality, providing strong support for the stable and long-term development of the economy.

First, the driving force of innovation continues to increase. The innovation-driven development strategy has been implemented in depth, the national strategic scientific and technological strength has accelerated and expanded, and the innovation capability has leapt to a new level. In 2022, the R&D investment of the whole society will exceed 3 trillion yuan for the first time, and the R&D investment intensity will reach 2.54%, an increase of 2012.0 percentage points over 63. China rose to 11th place in the Global Innovation Index and successfully entered the ranks of innovative countries. Scientific and technological innovation continues to empower the real economy, and new momentum continues to grow, improving its driving role in economic growth. From 2020 to 2022, the added value of the "three new" economies will increase by an average of 9.1% per year in nominal terms, equivalent to the proportion of GDP rising from 2019.16% in 34 to 2022.17% in 36, which will obviously drive economic growth. With the solid advancement of high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-improvement, the accelerated transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy, the new momentum of economic development will continue to increase.

Second, there is great potential for coordinated development of urban and rural areas. China has solidly promoted new-type urbanization and rural revitalization, deeply implemented major regional strategies and coordinated regional development strategies, coordinated the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, enhanced the balance and coordination of development, and also vigorously promoted economic development. From the perspective of urban and rural development, we have steadily improved the level of urbanization, continued to promote poverty alleviation and rural revitalization, continuously narrowed the gap between urban and rural areas, and released huge investment and consumption demand. At the end of 2022, the urbanization rate of China's permanent population was 65.22%, which is still far from the urbanization level of more than 80% in developed countries. At present, the quality of urbanization is not high, the urbanization rate of the household registration population is only 47.7%, and a large number of agricultural migrants have not yet been urbanized. In the next stage, there will be broad space for new-type urbanization and urban-rural integrated development, which will effectively drive the expansion of domestic demand. From the perspective of regional development, the central and western regions have obvious advantages as latecomers, develop faster than the east, and steadily increase their contribution to economic growth. From 2013 to 2022, the average annual GDP growth rate of the central and western regions will be 6.8%, 0.5 percentage points faster than that of the eastern region; the economic growth of the central and western regions will contribute more than 40% to the national economic growth. Never seen that fully tapping the advantageous potential of the central and western regions and promoting industrial gradient transfer will further activate the momentum of economic development.

The third is to prepare for new development in green transformation. Green transformation has accelerated, and green industries have shown vigor and become a new force for economic growth. From 2020 to 2022, the output of new energy vehicles and solar cells will increase by 78.0% and 39.6% respectively. In 2022, the output value of the new energy vehicle industry and the new energy industry in the strategic emerging industries will increase by 57.5% and 24.0% respectively over the previous year, which will strongly drive industrial growth. High-quality green supply has effectively stimulated new demand, and the domestic sales and export growth of green products have been good, adding new impetus to the conversion of new and old kinetic energy. From January to August this year, sales of new energy vehicles increased by 1.8% year-on-year; In the first half of the year, the export of "new three" products represented by lithium batteries, solar cells and electric manned vehicles increased by 39.2% year-on-year, becoming a new highlight of export growth. It should also be noted that China's active and steady promotion of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality will promote the rapid development of relevant technology research and development and green and low-carbon industries.

Fourth, high-level opening up and expansion of new space. In the face of the new situation of accelerated evolution of the century-old changes, the intensification of the trend of anti-globalization, and the complex and severe international environment, China has unswervingly expanded its opening up, implemented a more proactive opening up strategy, steadily expanded institutional opening-up, continuously expanded all-round economic and trade cooperation, and accelerated the formation of a high-level open economy. The joint construction of the "Belt and Road" has yielded fruitful results and broad space for economic and trade cooperation. From 2013 to 2022, China's imports and exports to Belt and Road partners increased by about 8% annually. The Belt and Road Initiative has become a popular international public goods and international cooperation platform, and a large number of cooperation projects have taken root in the countries and regions under joint construction, promoting local economic development and improving people's livelihood. By the end of 2022, Chinese enterprises had invested a total of 3979.42 billion yuan in the Belt and Road Cooperation Zone for national construction, creating 1,140 local jobs. Sharing development opportunities with other countries in the world, China is the world's largest exporter of goods trade and the world's second largest import market, and has become a major trading partner of more than <> countries and regions, making outstanding contributions to safeguarding the multilateral trading system and promoting fair trade development.

Fifth, the improvement of people's livelihood and economic development promote each other. People's livelihood and economic development affect and promote each other. Economic development lays the material foundation for the improvement of people's livelihood, and in the process of improving people's livelihood, it also expands investment and promotes consumption, which is conducive to economic development. China insists on ensuring and improving people's livelihood in the process of development, and always takes improving people's lives and enhancing people's livelihood and well-being as the starting point and foothold of its work. From 2020 to 2022, the per capita disposable income of residents in the country will increase by an average of 4.4% per year, and a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in the first half of this year, basically keeping pace with economic growth. The world's largest social security net is becoming more and more dense, and by the end of 2022, basic endowment insurance and basic medical insurance have covered 10.5 billion and 13.5 billion people respectively. The level of equalization of basic public services has been continuously improved, and the consolidation rate of nine-year compulsory education will reach 2022.95% in 5, and higher education will enter the stage of universalization. In the process of improving people's livelihood, the potential of investment and consumption demand is stimulated, and new economic growth points are born. Taking urban renewal actions as an example, from 2019 to 2022, a total of 16,7 new urban communities will be renovated, benefiting more than 2900 million residents; a total of more than 20,7 kilometers of aging pipelines such as water, electricity and heat will be renovated, 6,3 elevators will be installed, and <>,<> electric vehicle charging piles will be added, effectively driving investment and releasing residents' consumption potential.

To sum up, although the international environment has become more complex, severe and uncertain, and the domestic economic development is facing new challenges, China's economic growth, employment, prices and balance of payments are generally stable, high-quality development is solidly advanced, and economic development is firmly supported. At present, China is in a critical period of economic recovery and industrial upgrading, and we must objectively understand and comprehensively analyze the problems encountered in economic recovery, and see that these are problems in progress and development, and can be gradually overcome and solved in promoting sustained and stable economic recovery. China's economic development has never been smooth sailing, and the international rhetoric of China's decline has been endless, but China's economy has not collapsed, but has created two miracles of rapid economic development and long-term social stability. We have the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, the significant advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, the solid material and technological foundation accumulated by sustained and rapid development, the advantages of ultra-large-scale markets and domestic demand potential, and the huge human capital and human resources.

In the next stage, we must unite more closely around the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, strengthen confidence in development, maintain strategic concentration, firmly grasp the primary task of high-quality development and the strategic task of building a new development pattern, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, focus on expanding domestic demand, boosting confidence, preventing risks, continuously promote the continuous improvement of economic operation, the continuous enhancement of endogenous momentum, the continuous improvement of social expectations, and the continuous resolution of hidden risks, and strive to promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of the economy.

(Economic Daily, author: Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics)