China News Network, September 9 (Zhongxin Financial Reporter Zuo Yukun) On September 2, only two days after Guangzhou and Shenzhen officially announced that they would "recognize housing but not loans", Beijing and Shanghai also announced the implementation of this policy measure on the same day.
So far, all the four major first-tier cities have joined the ranks of "recognizing housing without recognizing loans". Industry analysts believe that this means that the bottom of the national real estate market may be established.
All four first-tier cities were officially announced
On September 9, the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission, the Beijing Branch of People's Bank of China, and the Beijing Regulatory Bureau of the State Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued the Notice on Optimizing the Recognition Standards for the Number of Housing Units in Personal Housing Loans in the City.
The circular clarifies that when resident families (including borrowers, spouses and minor children) apply for loans to purchase commercial housing, and the family members do not have a complete set of housing in the city's name, regardless of whether they have used the loan to purchase housing, banking financial institutions will implement the housing credit policy according to the first set of housing. The notice will take effect on September 2023, 9.
On the same day, the Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Management Commission, the Municipal Housing Administration, the Shanghai Branch of the People's Bank of China, and the Shanghai Regulatory Bureau of the State Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued the Notice on Optimizing the Recognition Standards for the Number of Housing Units in Personal Housing Loans in our City, implementing the policy measures of "recognizing houses without recognising loans" for the purchase of the first home loan, which will be implemented from the day after the issuance of the notice.
Following the introduction of relevant policies in Guangzhou and Shenzhen on August 8, all four first-tier cities have joined the team of "recognizing housing but not recognizing loans".
Infographic: Aerial photograph of a newly built home. Photo by China News Agency reporter Lu Ming
What is the good thing about the "recognize housing but not recognize loans" policy?
"The policy of not recognizing a house or not a loan is to hope to include more buyers and purchase needs into the recognition criteria for the first home." Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, explained, "In other words, the criteria for defining the first and second homes in the follow-up only depend on whether there is a house in your city. ”
How does this policy reduce the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate? For example, Yan Yuejin said that the current average total price of a new house in Shanghai is about 500 million yuan. Before the policy, the maximum down payment ratio for a second house (subscription for non-ordinary residences) was 70%, that is, a down payment of 350.175 million yuan was required. According to the current new policy, if it is included in the scope of the first home, then the down payment is about 175.35 million. In this comparison, the down payment directly decreased by <>.<> million, equivalent to <>% of the house price.
Similarly, if the first home standard is included, the mortgage interest rate will also be reduced, or the interest rate standard of the first home will be applied. At present, the interest rate of the second house in Shanghai is 5.25%, and the total interest expense is about 200.30 million yuan and the monthly payment is about 198,11044 yuan according to the loan principal of 4 million yuan and the equal principal and interest of 55 years. According to the new policy, its interest rate is 167.10193%, its total interest expense is about 31.851 million, and its monthly payment is about <> yuan. In contrast, total interest expense decreased by nearly $<>,<> and monthly payments decreased by about $<>.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that the new policy of "recognizing housing without recognizing loans" has supported the reasonable housing needs of residents and will bring practical effects to families with replacement and improvement housing needs. From the perspective of Beijing's second-hand housing market in recent years, the demand for improvement is more than half.
What are the characteristics of each of the four cities?
- Beijing
"The Beijing market has always been relatively stable, and it has shown strong resilience in the face of many external challenges this year." Shell Research Institute believes that Beijing's stability is determined by stable supply and demand, high level of own funds, reasonable supply scale, and stable policy environment. This policy optimization is aimed at the optimization of housing purchase conditions for new citizens and buy-one-sell groups, and Beijing's credit conditions and policy environment are still generally stable.
"In comparison, Beijing's market has cooled slightly less this year, and in the first half of 2023, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Beijing increased by 21% year-on-year." Zhang Bo, president of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, pointed out, but since April, the transaction volume has continued to decline, and the decline in transaction prices in June is the most obvious, from the online data of Anjuke, the second-hand housing listing price in September fell slightly by 4.6% month-on-month, and the popularity of viewing houses has also declined to a certain extent this year.
"For the Beijing market, there will definitely be 'golden nine silver ten', the transaction volume of second-hand houses is expected to rise rapidly to 1,5-2,<> sets, and short-term price increases in some areas have become inevitable." Zhang Dawei believes.
- Shanghai
Zhang Bo, president of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, pointed out that the cooling of Shanghai's market this year began to show obvious performance in the second quarter, mainly reflected in the decline in second-hand housing transactions and with the decline in prices, the peripheral dematerialization of first-hand houses slowed down, from the online data of Anjuke, the price of new houses fell slightly by 0.76% year-on-year, and the popularity of house viewing also declined to a certain extent this year.
According to the monitoring data of the China Index, Shanghai's new commercial housing (excluding affordable housing) has been sold less than 5000,4 sets for two consecutive months, while the second-hand housing has been traded below the "boom and bust line" for four consecutive months.
"At present, in the traditional 'Golden Nine Silver Ten' stage, Shanghai real estate enterprises have significantly increased their enthusiasm in pushing the market, while buyers have significantly increased their willingness to enter the market and their purchase strategies have become clearer after the policy is clear." Yan Yuejin believes that the Shanghai property market will be positively boosted in September, and the active trading trend will continue, and there will be important performance in the fields of primary and second-hand housing. The buyers' buying mentality will also be more rational and healthy, and the house price will have a stable foundation and a good trend.
- Guangzhou, Shenzhen
Two days ago, "recognizing housing but not recognizing loans" was officially announced in Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
As for the reasons for the policy "taking the lead" in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Planning and Housing Policy Research Center, believes that Guangzhou and Shenzhen have a concentrated foreign population, and new citizens account for about half of the permanent population, and the demand potential is large; Secondly, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are the core cities of the Greater Bay Area, with frequent population movements due to the connectivity and job changes in the Greater Bay Area.
"The recent price correction of second-hand housing in Guangzhou and Shenzhen is obvious, Guangzhou fell 7% month-on-month in July, and Shenzhen fell by 1.0%, which is significantly higher than Beijing and Shanghai and other hot cities, and the number of second-hand housing listings is still increasing, and the price decline is still increasing." Li Yujia said.
At the same time, he pointed out that the correction of commercial housing in Beijing and Shanghai is not as large as that of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and the decline in second-hand housing prices has begun to narrow. Beijing and Shanghai have also followed suit, and the policy statement is consistent with Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which means that the real estate policy adjustment is a top-down move. In essence, some policies in the past overheating period need to be withdrawn, which is also a policy adjustment and a return to normal.
Infographic: Sales staff introduce the property to customers.
The bottom of the national real estate market may be established
"The market downturn in August exceeded market expectations, and it is urgent to drive the stability of expectations through policy adjustments in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen when the 'Golden Nine Silver Ten' and the peak sales season at the end of the year are approaching." Li Yujia pointed out that including the three metropolitan areas driven by Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the metropolitan property market occupies 8% of the sales volume of the new housing market in the national property market, which is the basic market of the real estate market and the grip for stabilizing the property market.
"Policies in first-tier cities have been tightened in the past, and even if the overall market has cooled down since the second half of last year, the first-tier cities have remained unchanged." Zhang Bo believes that the current relaxation of policies also represents that the bottom of the national market has been established, and the release of a number of self-occupied demand through policies will undoubtedly help the popularity of first-tier cities to rebound, and drive more cities across the country to get out of the downturn.
At the same time, he pointed out that the landing of the policy of "recognizing housing without recognizing loans" is expected to have a more obvious effect in the short and medium term in the first line, on the one hand, due to the rise in replacement demand, it will drive the number of second-hand housing listings to increase, and simultaneously increase the transaction volume of second-hand housing; On the other hand, the demand for mid-to-high-end residential buildings in the market will further increase, the replacement demand will be more positive in the market, and the wait-and-see mood of the market will be greatly reduced.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, believes that first-tier cities have fully implemented the "recognition of housing without loan" for the first home, and all localities will also accelerate the implementation of relevant measures to reduce the down payment ratio, reduce the interest rate of the second home loan, and reduce the interest rate of the existing housing loan. Policy warm wind blows frequently, the real estate market in core cities will usher in a wave of upward market, and the "golden nine silver ten" market can be expected.
"The real estate market in core cities is expected to gradually stabilize, which will lead to the gradual recovery of the national real estate market." In the next four months, whether the national real estate market can stabilize is crucial to the macroeconomic market. Chen Wenjing said. (End)
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